ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sasha_B]

AF303 found Rafael's central pressure @ around 986 hPa; NOAA found around 987. Maximum winds have yet to be sampled but it's definitely looking more and more like a hurricane right now.

[TomballEd]

Looks like they coordinated flying over Cuba

Cuba didn't have much choice. They need information also and their power grid is so fragile, they need our weather guys to cover this as much as possible.

IIRC, Charley was the first storm the AF planes were allowed to enter Cuban airspace, the NOAA planes could, I assume with permission.

[zzzh]

URNT12 KNHC 052328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182024
A. 05/22:59:20Z
B. 19.25 deg N 079.81 deg W
C. 700 mb 2982 m
D. 987 mb
E. 010 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C15
H. 49 kt
I. 318 deg 24 nm 22:52:30Z
J. 053 deg 43 kt
K. 318 deg 24 nm 22:53:00Z
L. 57 kt
M. 133 deg 14 nm 23:03:30Z
N. 234 deg 57 kt
O. 133 deg 14 nm 23:03:30Z
P. 9 C / 3050 m
Q. 14 C / 3050 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF303 0918A RAFAEL OB 03
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 133 / 14 NM 23:03:30Z
;

URNT12 KWBC 052319
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182024
A. 05/22:45:07Z
B. 19.22 deg N 079.76 deg W
C. NA
D. 989 mb
E. 175 deg 14 kt
F. SPIRAL BAND
G. NA
H. NA
I. NA
J. 060 deg 51 kt
K. 318 deg 21 nm 22:39:32Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 224 deg 57 kt
O. 126 deg 16 nm 22:48:57Z
P. 15 C / 2441 m
Q. 18 C / 2434 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 1345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 1018A RAFAEL OB 08
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 126 / 16 NM 22:48:57Z

Those 2 VDMs are just 15mins apart but the data is very different. I wonder if something is not right on the NOAA plane?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think we have a hurricane

[zzzh]

FL 79 at 750mb definitely supports hurricane intensity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Officially a hurricane.

Code: Select all

...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...
7:20 PM EST Tue Nov 5
Location: 19.4°N 79.9°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph


[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think we could get to Cat 2 by early tomorrow morning. What do we think?

[galaxy401]

Hurricane season now has reached an impressive 11 hurricanes.

[AJC3]

Looks like they coordinated flying over Cuba

Cuba didn't have much choice. They need information also and their power grid is so fragile, they need our weather guys to cover this as much as possible.

IIRC, Charley was the first storm the AF planes were allowed to enter Cuban airspace, the NOAA planes could, I assume with permission.

I'd have to ask to be sure what the firsts were for both entities.

The NOAA Recon flight (low level Invest) I went on in 2000 (T.D. 12/pre-Helene) flew over Cuban airspace. The plane had to maintain FL170 in the airspace over Havana, but was allowed to descend to 1500 feet once it reached the south coast, approaching Isle of Youth.

[WaveBreaking]

I think a new VHT is trying to wrap around the E side of the core

EDIT: GOES Satellite data was delayed, but now Rafael is currently trying to clear an eye

This season needs to stop with these hurricanes RI-ing right up to landfall

[ConvergenceZone]

Since this will more than likely barely be a tropical storm and we won't have to deal with winds, let's hope it brings some much needed rains to those areas that need it and stays away from those areas that don't.

[wxman57]

NHC did shift the track west and is now not far from consensus. Note, too that they dropped wind to 35 kts well offshore at day 5 and mention it could be weaker. I think we'll be looking at a convectionless weak low moving into SE LA Sunday.

[sasha_B]

Intensity set at 70 kt and 985 hPa on the 11pm advisory, and once again explicitly forecast to reach Cat 2, with a 90 kt peak in 12 hours & mention in the discussion that it's "not impossible" that Rafael could become a major hurricane before landfall in Cuba. Also now forecast to briefly regain Category 2 intensity after moving offshore into the Gulf, though weakening is still expected thereafter. Quite a significant change to the forecast.

[Travorum]

Rafael's eyewall looks to be developing well on Grand Cayman Radar, it's closed off the SW quadrant.



The Eastern eyewall passed right over Little Cayman not too long ago.

[ConvergenceZone]

NHC did shift the track west and is now not far from consensus. Note, too that they dropped wind to 35 kts well offshore at day 5 and mention it could be weaker. I think we'll be looking at a convectionless weak low moving into SE LA Sunday.

I think you will 100% nail this one! That's fine. It's been a very active destructive year, we don't need anymore destruction. We need to move on to 2025 already. 2025 hurricane season will be here before we know it and we'll be doing it all over again lol.

[zzzh]

Eye is clearing out with intense bursts around the eyewall.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

NHC did shift the track west and is now not far from consensus. Note, too that they dropped wind to 35 kts well offshore at day 5 and mention it could be weaker. I think we'll be looking at a convectionless weak low moving into SE LA Sunday.

Being that is looks to be coming in on my western side, im ok with a lil breeze. Francine almost top over our leeves here and the house im in right now is not elevated... our new house will be 14ft off the ground.

[Travorum]

051130 2016N 08055W 6972 03030 9890 +111 +105 063069 072 /// /// 03
051200 2014N 08053W 6968 03019 9882 +106 +099 063067 069 088 006 03
051230 2013N 08052W 6950 03022 //// +092 //// 068066 070 072 042 01
[...]
051630 2001N 08049W 6957 02961 9757 +150 +105 257032 042 025 002 03
[...]
051800 1956N 08044W 6967 02996 9848 +112 +104 243070 071 062 006 00
051830 1955N 08043W 6971 03014 //// +089 //// 236078 080 065 007 01
051900 1954N 08041W 6967 03028 9901 +099 //// 234073 078 065 005 01

Down to 975.7mb extrap, with FL winds of 80kts in the SE quadrant and SFMR of 88kts in the NW quadrant.

[kassi]

I'm in SETX and I don't remember ever being in the cone of a hurricane (currently) in November. Maybe I just wasn't paying attention because it was November, but I just can't recall it. Even October is extremely rare. Anyway, I know it's supposed to weaken and I do not think it's coming here. I just thought it was a bit humorous. Carry on...

[Kingarabian]

Wonder just how much an ERI episode for Rafael can affect the shear.