ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Eye definitely cooling in the latest frames on cyclonicwx. Rats.

[zzzh]

The eye is getting cooler, the peak has likely passed.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea ERC about to happen.

Per the latest NHC discussion. "Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer
eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually
weaken on Tuesday but grow larger. On Wednesday, Milton is expected
to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry
air entrainment, with further weakening forecast. "

[caneman]

Just seen a photo from a friend. Paddock mall parking lot in Ocala is filled with power trucks sitting.

Glad to hear they are staging. The power trucks will be from across the country.

You'll see caravans of them heading in on the freeways.

They stage in a safety zone along with all the first responders who evacuated once a mandatory evacuation order was issued.

As a review a citizen is not required to evacuate when mandatory evacuations are ordered.

It means all emergency personnel including the police are no longer there to help and you truly are on your own.

Was always a sad feeling when they all left just before the storm. Many wanted to stay but the protocols are there for a reason.

Along with the power workers cutting their way in all the first-responders were there eager to get into the war zone and do their heroic work.

Chuck

Florida has done this since 2017. DeSantis is one of the best planners for these events I've every seen in my life.

100%

[chaser1]

My input, and I'm not a forecaster or a meteorologist.

The big risk will be tornadoes in your area as the storm starts to move faster to the E/ENE and the air destabilizes further.

If anyone has anything to add to this, please do.

Difference being that I (nor anyone I know here in Florida) will not take any added precautions, preparations, or purchase items in advance of Tornado Watches. Meaning, no structural fortification or additional pruning. A brief F-0 tornado event is entirely possible and many have occured over the years but those odds are similar to the lottery.

After Hurricane Frances spawned a tornado over our house that hit ground down the road, I don' take tornado watches for granted. That train sound has stuck with me. Even TS Bonnie that year spawned a F2 in Jacksonville. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpy037xcdvY

You missed my point. If a tornado hits my neighborhood, I'll be mad, maybe inconvenienced, possibly injured, could even die. Having said that, I will not be hunkered down, put up plywood on my windows, evacuate, or buy a generator for the sole risk of a very very low risk of a tornado. During the 50 years I've lived in South or Central Florida, I have been impacted by just as many earthquakes as I have tornados LOL (zero). I'm simply saying that such phenomenon are infrequent enough, that extra precautions are not a consideration.

[aspen]

CDO is deepening but the eye is contracting and cooling, so idk what’s going on in there.

[AerospaceEng]

NHC explicitly forecasting 185 mph. Would be tied for #2 in Atlantic basin behind Allen, if it verifies.

[jasons2k]

I know it's sickening how they spread misinformation, not very responsible. But it's all about the views.

I'm sorry but this is not misinformation. There is a category 5 hurricane -a strong one at that - headed for Florida's West Coast. The media is reporting facts as they exist.

But they omit the expected weakening before landfall.

on purpose.

Y’all are too focused on a textbook definition of a scale that’s flawed to begin with.

The surge from this storm will be anything a so-called “Cat 5” hurricane would generate. People along the coast need to plan as though this is a “Cat 5 storm.” As the NWS Ruskin stated earlier today, this storm will be stronger than any hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years.

[MGC]

I doubt Milton has peaked just yet. Once the moat gets well established and chokes off the inner eyewall pressures will start to rise but the wind field will expand. Hopefully some of that dry air to Milton's north can get into the circulation. My sister lives just south of Sebring and she is staying.....MGC

[InfernoFlameCat]

CDO is deepening but the eye is contracting and cooling, so idk what’s going on in there.

Might be the CDO covering the eye again. Based on that microwave pass there are no incoming EWRCs.

[edu2703]

Peak surge values for the Tampa Bay area went up. Now projected at 10-15 feet per this latest advisory.

Terrible. I can't even imagine what a 15 feet surge would look like in the Tampa Bay area. A catastrophe if that happens.

[chaser1]

Here in Orlando. I just receive an EMS alert on my phone for Hurricane Warnings issued for my area (Seminole county). Must have just put in effect

[cheezyWXguy]

https://x.com/sekai_wx/status/184339174 ... WoEo-mboaQ
Uhhh…

[mpic]

https://x.com/sekai_wx/status/1843391740587512153?s=12&t=27B-AjEXHhyoWoEo-mboaQ
Uhhh…

Exactly why I follow this forum lol

[underthwx]

I'm sorry but this is not misinformation. There is a category 5 hurricane -a strong one at that - headed for Florida's West Coast. The media is reporting facts as they exist.

But they omit the expected weakening before landfall.

on purpose.

Y’all are too focused on a textbook definition of a scale that’s flawed to begin with.

The surge from this storm will be anything a so-called “Cat 5” hurricane would generate. People along the coast need to plan as though this is a “Cat 5 storm.” As the NWS Ruskin stated earlier today, this storm will be stronger than any hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years.

Absolutely Jason.....that is a powerful....direct statement from the NWS.... that commands everyone's attention!.....and its time to leave that area now...

[Travorum]

For everyone talking about the eye cooling on IR, remember that the GOES satellites are 22,000 miles away and looking at an angle of about 20 degrees. While it is possible that the eye is cooling slightly, it is equally as likely that the contraction of the eye means that GOES doesn't have the resolution or viewing angle to be able to accurately resolve the eye.

[Pasmorade]

Tampa's forecast to get 12-15 ft of storm surge...

[Nederlander]

Peak surge values for the Tampa Bay area went up. Now projected at 10-15 feet per this latest advisory.

Still too low IMO... 15-20 ft. seems more appropriate given landfall timing overnight Wednesday with a rising tide (high tide is early Thur morning).

[dhweather]

Official intensity upped to 180mph in the advisory - it could very well be above that. Where's my recon fix?!!?

[xironman]

Why worry about peak intensity, tomorrow is when it goes over the loop current.