ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

If it keeps gaining latitude, it's going to go right over the Scorpion Reef atolls. Tiny pieces of land but given the small core, wonder if that can disrupt it just a tiny bit.

Lol there's no chance any of that is even going to be above water due to the surge. Might as well just be part of the sea.

[Sailingtime]

Glad to hear they are staging. The power trucks will be from across the country.

You'll see caravans of them heading in on the freeways.

They stage in a safety zone along with all the first responders who evacuated once a mandatory evacuation order was issued.

As a review a citizen is not required to evacuate when mandatory evacuations are ordered.

It means all emergency personnel including the police are no longer there to help and you truly are on your own.

Was always a sad feeling when they all left just before the storm. Many wanted to stay but the protocols are there for a reason.

Along with the power workers cutting their way in all the first-responders were there eager to get into the war zone and do their heroic work.

Chuck

Florida has done this since 2017. DeSantis is one of the best planners for these events I've every seen in my life.

100%

Without question. We are lucky to have him in times of emergency response.

[underthwx]

Still intensifying?.....how much more can Milton strengthen?....this is the strongest cyclone that I personally have ever heard of....

Loop current.

The thing that gets every tropical cyclone drooling

Is the loop current the same as the gulf stream?...

[JBCycloneStan]

Unfortunately for everyone hoping for recon to get peak intensity, the significant cooling of the eye suggests it passed. Doesn’t seem to be angle issues IMO. Fingers crossed it hasn’t weakened too much by the time Kermit gets there in like an hour or so.

idk seems the eye contracting and the presence of super cold cloud tops (-80 ) filling in could be a sign of further strengthening. We'll find out soon enough!

[Michele B]

Looking like Milton might be hinting at making that northeast turn a little early. If it continues that could be bad for Tampa.

AND Cedar key.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Loop current.

The thing that gets every tropical cyclone drooling

Is the loop current the same as the gulf stream?...

It's an offshoot that projects into the Gulf of Mexico

[Orlando]

Here in Orlando. I just receive an EMS alert on my phone for Hurricane Warnings issued for my area (Seminole county). Must have just put in effect

We received one too, in southwest Orlando.

[Hurrilurker]

I hope they removed all people from that island north of the Yucatan because that thing is about to be biblically leveled, like there might not be anything left including trees and buildings.

[xironman]

At least we can expect significant weakening before landfall.

Yep and thank God for that! Just looked at the shear map and holy crap that's some of the strongest shear I've ever seen that's forecasted, AND at the right time.

There is no guarantee. Don't look at a current shear map, because that won't be the shear when the storm arrives. Look at the SHIPS projection https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D

[Owasso]

Anyone got an updated ETA on the first center pass? Plane just descended.

This is just me trying to eyeball it but I'd say there should be a center fix in the next 40-50 mins.

[syfr]

"Glad to hear they are staging. The power trucks will be from across the country."


They will need to be, as WNC has vacuumed up much of the east coast resources, and will for quite some time yet.

[Michele B]

Im in Lake Wales, I have an old cinder block house from the 50s but I just got a new roof and am worried about roof damage or window damage. I honestly feel sick to my stomach not just in fear for my property but my friends and family in Tampa where I grew up. I worry it may not be recognizable in a few days

I grew up in Dunedin, family still lives there and I visit often. Ive felt like throwing up the whole day.

You are right about not being recognizable. Folks in Homestead said after Andrew they didn't even recognize their own neighborhoods because trees, street signs, other landmarks were just gone. It's very sad.

The only problem I see with your "older, '50's cinder block house" is the strapping holding your roof onto it. Do you have any clue how strong that is, or if the roofer reinforced it in any way?

I hope you're not contemplating heading to Tampa to be with your family???

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Instead of being productive the last 4 hours I've refreshed this forum like an addict waiting for this airplane to arrive. Anyone else feel the same way?

It's the "slow motion train crash" effect...

The song "Vicarious" by Tool does a very good job of capturing this sort of addiction

[Flwxguy86]

Im in Lake Wales, I have an old cinder block house from the 50s but I just got a new roof and am worried about roof damage or window damage. I honestly feel sick to my stomach not just in fear for my property but my friends and family in Tampa where I grew up. I worry it may not be recognizable in a few days

I grew up in Dunedin, family still lives there and I visit often. Ive felt like throwing up the whole day.

I am going to be riding this out in the Dunedin/Clearwater area, Not idea but it's not in any surge or flood zones, The wind is my only concern but the house is pretty sturdy and should be ok to ride it out there, If the roof decides to depart from the house then there isn't much I can do besides get under something and wait for it to end. Wish me Lucky everyone.

[eastcoastFL]

All this rain today is sure not helping things. I already have water pooling around the house. How fast is Milton supposed to be moving when he crosses the state?

[WaveBreaking]

I hope they removed all people from that island north of the Yucatan because that thing is about to be biblically leveled, like there might not be anything left including trees and buildings.

Did some digging and found that Scorpion Reef (that island group in the path) has only one inhabited island (Isla Pérez). And apparently Isla Pérez has a lighthouse but does not have any permanent residents.

[eastcoastFL]

Im in Lake Wales, I have an old cinder block house from the 50s but I just got a new roof and am worried about roof damage or window damage. I honestly feel sick to my stomach not just in fear for my property but my friends and family in Tampa where I grew up. I worry it may not be recognizable in a few days

I grew up in Dunedin, family still lives there and I visit often. Ive felt like throwing up the whole day.

I am going to be riding this out in the Dunedin/Clearwater area, Not idea but it's not in any surge or flood zones, The wind is my only concern but the house is pretty sturdy and should be ok to ride it out there, If the roof decides to depart from the house then there isn't much I can do besides get under something and wait for it to end. Wish me Lucky everyone.

Are there shelters open in your area?

[ConvergenceZone]

At least we can expect significant weakening before landfall.

Yep and thank God for that! Just looked at the shear map and holy crap that's some of the strongest shear I've ever seen that's forecasted, AND at the right time.

There is no guarantee. Don't look at a current shear map, because that won't be the shear when the storm arrives. Look at the SHIPS projection https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D

Actually I wasn't, I was looking at the forecast shear map and it makes sense, especially as if falls in line with what all the models and ship reports are seeing as well as the NHC. Sorry I should have specified it's the forecasted and not the current.

[chaser1]

After Hurricane Frances spawned a tornado over our house that hit ground down the road, I don' take tornado watches for granted. That train sound has stuck with me. Even TS Bonnie that year spawned a F2 in Jacksonville. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpy037xcdvY

You missed my point. If a tornado hits my neighborhood, I'll be mad, maybe inconvenienced, possibly injured, could even die. Having said that, I will not be hunkered down, put up plywood on my windows, evacuate, or buy a generator for the sole risk of a very very low risk of a tornado. During the 50 years I've lived in South or Central Florida, I have been impacted by just as many earthquakes as I have tornados LOL (zero). I'm simply saying that such phenomenon are infrequent enough, that extra precautions are not a consideration.

You are comparing the world before climate change to the world as it exists now. Hurricane Maria hit Vieques, PR as a cat 5 with embedded tornadoes that were not forecast. I don't know how you know what to blame on hurricanes and what to blame on tornadoes but a 30' sailboat (mine) picked up out of the water and deposited 40' inland sounds like a tornado to me.

That's very astute. Sounds like a tornado to me! Had that happened to me, I'd probably have moved to Michigan (or, somewhere else). No doubt, I'd probably have PSD for the rest of my life as well. Furthermore, had "that" happened to me, I'd quite possibly hunker down in my windowless hallway every single time I was alerted that a radar detected tornado was detected for my area. I wouldn't blame you or anyone else for doing so either. I however will not do so until the prevalence truly increases to such a point that it becomes clear that tornados are now occuring routinely and in significant numbers that I viable threat exists typically directly affecting most neighborhoods and people. Global warming may cause that to happen but not where I live.

[Michele B]

The PRE event has a 10/10 area. They are essentially getting an Invest right now (although I don't think they would go with 93L out of the potential for confusion, and if SOMEHOW it became a TC or STC, I would honestly let it go to avoid confusion with Milton).

If you're talking about that thing off the SE coast of FL? It seems like it going to head out to sea, so - like you - I wouldn't designate it now. It might confuse people and cause them to think the storm's already passed and the threat is over.