ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Xyls]

Just waking up and the structure is looking way better than I thought it was going to this morning. Looked like it was going to be a total mess this morning as woke up and now the structure of the core looks more impressive.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Beryl keeps on keepin' on

[aspen]

Barely a major with rising pressures based on the two center passes. Maybe only 95 kt/968 mbar.

[GCANE]

VDM
11:40Z
Max Surface Wind: 97knts
970mb
18.71N 81.46W
20nm circular eye, open s to SE

[otowntiger]

Beryl does seem to have a more pronounced NW movement the last few hours. It's difficult to see exactly since it isn't always easy to see where the center is exactly at the moment. But it looks like it gained about 0.4 deg latitude during its last 1 deg of longitude. Extrapolating that would put it almost out of the cone at the Yucatan landfall, almost missing Yucatan altogether. But I wouldn't make any conclusions right now, let's see what the trend is over the rest of the day.

Be very careful XTRAPing anything, these systems wobble. The NHC has enough recon out there to know where the ridge is and how strong it is, is the track going to move North, maybe, but not enough to satisfy some people. NHC is too good on track inside of 5 days for any major changes, 75 miles on either side of the tx/mx border is a good bet. Cheap Tecate in Matamoros, park your car, walk across the bridge, walk back. Cheers from SOFLA where we are getting crushed with heat advisories. FLORIDIANS-the ridge isn't going to be this strong forever.

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT FORT
LAUDERDALE YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET
IN 2022.

very true. Any short term movement observed via satellite or radar doesn’t tell the whole story. The NHC has way more tools and methods for determining track and have it pretty much nailed at this point in the three day period at least, especially the next 24 hours.

[otowntiger]

Beryl does seem to have a more pronounced NW movement the last few hours. It's difficult to see exactly since it isn't always easy to see where the center is exactly at the moment. But it looks like it gained about 0.4 deg latitude during its last 1 deg of longitude. Extrapolating that would put it almost out of the cone at the Yucatan landfall, almost missing Yucatan altogether. But I wouldn't make any conclusions right now, let's see what the trend is over the rest of the day.

Be very careful XTRAPing anything, these systems wobble. The NHC has enough recon out there to know where the ridge is and how strong it is, is the track going to move North, maybe, but not enough to satisfy some people. NHC is too good on track inside of 5 days for any major changes, 75 miles on either side of the tx/mx border is a good bet. Cheap Tecate in Matamoros, park your car, walk across the bridge, walk back. Cheers from SOFLA where we are getting crushed with heat advisories. FLORIDIANS-the ridge isn't going to be this strong forever.

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT FORT
LAUDERDALE YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET
IN 2022.

very true. Any short term movement observed via satellite or radar doesn’t tell the whole story. The NHC has way more tools and methods for determining track and have it pretty much nailed at this point in the three day period at least, especially the next 24 hours.

[hipshot]

https://i.postimg.cc/TP86MwmP/Beryl-4-Jul24-Cayman.gif

Looks like it took a jog north after it got away from Jamaica and looks to be intensifying, JM2C.

[GCANE]

VDM
11:40Z
Max Surface Wind: 97knts
970mb
18.71N 81.46W
20nm circular eye, open s to SE

Eyedrop has 82% RH at 850mb
.
No wobble, definitely north of forecast track (should be 18.45N at 81.5W)
About 20nm north.

[GCANE]

That ULL in the GoM is definitely doing its job pulling Beryl north

[GCANE]

Hot Towers a poppin and a Feeder Band may be kicking in.
Over the max OHC water in the Atlantic

[tropicwatch]

07042024 6:55am Central Time

[GCANE]

That rapidly developing convection on the NW side will plow through any shear like a hot knife

[GCANE]

Mr Shear is takin a lickin while Beryl keeps on a tickin

[GCANE]

The Fujiwhara rotational axis of the GoM ULL and Beryl is right in the middle of the Yucatan Channel

[kevin]

The first two NOAA passes measured a peak 107 kt FL winds and 101 kt SFMR, blending to a 100 kt intensity. Looks like NHC went with 105 kt for now, probably accounting for undersampling and to just wait and see whether upcoming passes show continued weakening or perhaps find some higher winds.

[wxman57]

Beryl looks on-track to make landfall about 70 miles south of Brownsville late Sunday evening, probably as a Cat 1. Hurricane models have been in very good agreement on landfall between Tampico and Brownsville. A landfall south of Brownsville would produce tropical storm force wind into Brownsville, but Corpus Christi would experience 25-35 mph wind. Of course, much will depend on how much it weakens after crossing the Yucatan. It's a relatively small hurricane. Small hurricanes are much more fragile than large ones.

[jlauderdal]

Beryl does seem to have a more pronounced NW movement the last few hours. It's difficult to see exactly since it isn't always easy to see where the center is exactly at the moment. But it looks like it gained about 0.4 deg latitude during its last 1 deg of longitude. Extrapolating that would put it almost out of the cone at the Yucatan landfall, almost missing Yucatan altogether. But I wouldn't make any conclusions right now, let's see what the trend is over the rest of the day.

Be very careful XTRAPing anything, these systems wobble. The NHC has enough recon out there to know where the ridge is and how strong it is, is the track going to move North, maybe, but not enough to satisfy some people. NHC is too good on track inside of 5 days for any major changes, 75 miles on either side of the tx/mx border is a good bet. Cheap Tecate in Matamoros, park your car, walk across the bridge, walk back. Cheers from SOFLA where we are getting crushed with heat advisories. FLORIDIANS-the ridge isn't going to be this strong forever.

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT FORT
LAUDERDALE YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET
IN 2022.

very true. Any short term movement observed via satellite or radar doesn’t tell the whole story. The NHC has way more tools and methods for determining track and have it pretty much nailed at this point in the three day period at least, especially the next 24 hours.

Wobble watching is part of the deal and every wobble matters, in this case a few wobbles north isnt sending it to houston or LA. Wobbles are a big deal when nearing landfall, it can be the difference between having your roof blown off or just limbs down. Also, angle of approach, consider IAN and the angle it came in, minor changes had big implications downstream due to the angle. Looks quiet after Beryl but it looked quiet before Beryl. Good time to stock up on 12/3 extension cords for use inside your house.

[GCANE]

Wow, 65mm/hr rain rate. Another cylinder firing up

[jlauderdal]

Beryl looks on-track to make landfall about 70 miles south of Brownsville late Sunday evening, probably as a Cat 1. Hurricane models have been in very good agreement on landfall between Tampico and Brownsville. A landfall south of Brownsville would produce tropical storm force wind into Brownsville, but Corpus Christi would experience 25-35 mph wind. Of course, much will depend on how much it weakens after crossing the Yucatan. It's a relatively small hurricane. Small hurricanes are much more fragile than large ones.

Good job on your track in spite of mixed signals from the models and initialization issues for several days now. Human intervention with experience looking at tropical systems is required to come up with a good track, I see ICON hugging on the twitter, it really needs to stop. WXMAN57 put out a track that was a little too far south but well within the "error" rate, considering how far out in time he put his track out for public consumption. I see 96L is following similar track even south, the ridge is strong and beryl isnt busting through it heading to the TX/LA border. Houston peeps, you want to know what is happening, follow Matt Lanza and Jeff Lindner for all things Houston, they know the enviornment and Lindner knows every square inch of topography and how it floods. They are also fantastic on communication!

[jlauderdal]

Wow, 65mm/hr rain rate. Another cylinder firing up

Is Beryl a 6-cylinder or still an 8-cylinder?

Dont be fooled by pics coming out of Kingston or Montego Bay, Southwest Jamaica into the Blue Mountains took a beating, was listening to Nationwide last night and this morning, wind was a huge issue with roofs-not just tin roofs either.