ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LandoWill]

I do see NE motion, or am i just seeing things now? I know it's supposed to be doing this, but..

[GCANE]

Yeah I'm here near Beaufort that's my concern

Stay safe my friend

TOR risk

https://i.imgur.com/9SlSZsn.png

10% usually indicates a tornado outbreak

[HurricaneBelle]

Just woke up and first thing I did was grab the phone off the nightstand to check out RadarScope and saw this. For a minute I thought that echo to my west in the Gulf was the hurricane and was thinking "how did it get to my latitude so fast?" It really looks like an eye.

[eastcoastFL]

[xironman]

Can't keep that eye closed, I wonder if those racing mesos are disrupting it.

F. Eye Character: Open in the west
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Based on recon data, I'd go with 100 mph at 8am.

Tough to get large storms to explosively RI, so I'm not surprised that we're still looking at a Cat 1 this AM. Reminds me a lot of Ike ~ Cat 2 with catastrophic storm surge. 105-110 knots at landfall seems reasonable though.

[eastcoastFL]

I do see NE motion, or am i just seeing things now? I know it's supposed to be doing this, but..

It’s moving NE.

[Frank P]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Can't keep that eye closed, I wonder if those racing mesos are disrupting it.

F. Eye Character: Open in the west
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)

From what I'm reading, it's the same thing as last night...concentric eyewalls. The main one is too small and there is a secondary

[LandoWill]

I do see NE motion, or am i just seeing things now? I know it's supposed to be doing this, but..

It’s moving NE.

I guess the key is at about 2pm it's supposed to go more northward, if it doesn't, then more rain on the west coast

[Cat5James]

104 kt flight level wind in the east eyewall - supports 94 kt at the surface. More sharp pressure falls as well. Strong case this is now a Category 2.

HDOB with 0 wind supports 963.8 mb. Looking at satellite, I think this gets closer to Tampa than people think. Landfall will be further N, but with a large wind field, I have concerns affects in Tampa may be more significant than people think.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExb2g5Ym82eGI1MnE2Y2U4amMyeHZsMGJtZnMxd2hpczQ4dTJjMjVraCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/MOi7kYmlTpVxvOSUo8/giphy.gif

Im in Manatee County 30 miles south of Tampa and judging by the wind gusts we are getting already I'm a bit concerned

[Nimbus]

Based on Miss Piggy's latest pass, Helene looks to be just a few miles east of forecast track.

I haven't learned how to "Add" an appropriate overlay in google earth yet but I painted some red lines to make a stupid cone.

[southmdwatcher]

I thought the 500mb upper low was supposed to cut off over Arkansas or Oklahoma. It is currently hanging out over western Kentucky and Tennessee. Wouldn't that force the track of Helene not just 30 to 50 miles east, but much more?

[SoupBone]

I thought the 500mb upper low was supposed to cut off over Arkansas or Oklahoma. It is currently hanging out over western Kentucky and Tennessee. Wouldn't that force the track of Helene not just 30 to 50 miles east, but much more?

I've asked similar questions, but no responses. I think people are hyper focused on landfall. I'm curious though if that keeps it from impacting Georgia and Tennessee as much.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

F. CLOSED
G. C36

[MetsIslesNoles]

Question for anyone that can direct me. I’m looking at the hourly wind speed forecast for Tallahassee at the NWS and it’s saying the peak gusts are 60 mph tonight? Am I looking at a wrong view?

[GCANE]

VDM just came in from Miss Piggy.
The outer eyewall took over and is closed.
Doubt we will see another EWRC.
Cat 4 at landfall is probable.

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles)

[HurricaneAndre2008]

677
WTNT34 KNHC 261139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

[kevin]

VDM just came in from Miss Piggy.
The outer eyewall took over and is closed.
Doubt we will see another EWRC.
Cat 4 at landfall is probable.

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles)

MPERC 09z also only had a 3% chance of ERC onset so combined with the recon data I think it's unlikely we'll see another EWRC before landfall.

[InfernoFlameCat]

VDM just came in from Miss Piggy.
The outer eyewall took over and is closed.
Doubt we will see another EWRC.
Cat 4 at landfall is probable.

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles)

Oh man. It's off to the races with what, 16 hours till landfall? We should see the whole storm blow up with convection soon.