ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Eye clearing rapidly within the last hour, starting to look like a MH. Won't be long before she actually is one.

[caneman]

This storm may yet go east of forecast with all the S2Kers pushing it in that direction.

It isn't pushing anything. One the right side of cone would mean far more effects for other areas to include hurricane gusts and worse surge. Not really that funny for those living in flood zone a. Including family living in low lying Oldsmar and many other areas. For the record. I've been saying Cedar Key to perry so I wouldn't call that cheerleading.

Nobody is -removed- here. When you have our best models such as GFS, Euro, Euro AI, ICON, and now GFS ensembles pointing toward a closer approach to the Florida west coast you start paying attention - particularly us posters on the west side of the state.

100%. A 20 or 30 mile shift to the east of the cone has large effects for Tampa Bay on northward.

[Teban54]

I'm not convinced that Cat 4 is out of the question. If that wraps around, watch out.

[Kazmit]

There's probably a better spot on the forum for it but I had to make this.

[WaveBreaking]

Eye clearing rapidly within the last hour, starting to look like a MH. Won't be long before she actually is one.

https://i.imgur.com/6KF4lX7.jpeg

Helene’s trying to pull off its best Ian impression unfortunately

[Category5Kaiju]

There's probably a better spot on the forum for it but I had to make this.

https://i.ibb.co/KqWhxVH/bingo.png

You forgot "eye looks ragged"

Anyways, it does look like Helene is about to start a period of strengthening, with the eye clearing out quite nicely. In a way, it kind of reminds me of Lee's evolution from last year

[ronjon]

Greg Postel and Jim Cantore from TWC just showed the NHC forecast track is on the west side of guidance at landfall. They just showed Euro and GFS ensemble plots along with other model tracks that now mostly point to a Taylor County landfall.

[StPeteMike]

There's probably a better spot on the forum for it but I had to make this.

https://i.ibb.co/KqWhxVH/bingo.png

Where’s the Freebie?! I say we just make Jim Cantore’s face as the freebie spot.

[cheezyWXguy]

There's probably a better spot on the forum for it but I had to make this.

https://i.ibb.co/KqWhxVH/bingo.png

+1 for incorrect use of “duel” instead of “dual”. See that a lot.

[Laser30033003]

Question...I'm in Pinellas..storm shutters are up all ready to go.... but it looks like the storm is really pushing east shouldn't it even moving more than the north....?? or is there still high confidence in the track?

[hipshot]

Based on my calculation from the recon fixes on Helene during between 1:48 AM & 6:38 AM, Helene's average heading has been at 29 degrees at 12.6 mph.

What was the forecast heading at this point? 29 degrees is NE.

45 degrees is NE, 29 is more like NNE.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Question...I'm in Pinellas..storm shutters are up all ready to go.... but it looks like the storm is really pushing east shouldn't it even moving more than the north....?? or is there still high confidence in the track?

Confidence in the track is extremely high at this point. Smaller details like exactly where in the Panhandle will hit are up in the air, but we can say confidently it's not coming to Tampa. There will still be impacts due to wind and surge though.

[SoupBone]

Based on my calculation from the recon fixes on Helene during between 1:48 AM & 6:38 AM, Helene's average heading has been at 29 degrees at 12.6 mph.

What was the forecast heading at this point? 29 degrees is NE.

45 degrees is NE, 29 is more like NNE.

You're right, I haven't had my coffee yet.

[acidus]

Who is predicting cat 5? Ever? High cat 3 or low cat 4 is all that was ever reasonable.

IMO the bigger the storm is the lower the category will be and the higher the damage. This is why I think Saffir Simpson is useless for large storms, except to say that is this beast actually reaches cat 4 the damage will be extraordinary just from the surge alone.

Joe Bastardi is predicting Cat 5.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1839070525273870548

[Bamagirl2408]

I thought it was Cantore, too.

So if it was Seidel, was he canned? Is that why he's on Fox Weather now?

I thought he was cut sometime around Covid in a layoff. No idea!

\Bamagirl,

Is that YT channel (for FoxWeather) a pay channel or just subscriber?

It is a regular channel on youtube tv basic. I am watching it now and it shows a ticket that says 24/7 stream available on foxweather.tv

[Bamagirl2408]

I thought he was cut sometime around Covid in a layoff. No idea!

\Bamagirl,

Is that YT channel (for FoxWeather) a pay channel or just subscriber?

It is a regular channel on youtube tv basic. I am watching it now and it shows a ticker that says 24/7 stream available on foxweather.tv

[caneman]

Question...I'm in Pinellas..storm shutters are up all ready to go.... but it looks like the storm is really pushing east shouldn't it even moving more than the north....?? or is there still high confidence in the track?

It couldn't end up on the eastern side of the cone making it 20 or 30 miles closer so both wind and surge could be higher. Prepare for that just in case.

[LandoWill]

Desantis just confimed the models have trended slightly east, but no guarantees. So they are aware of the trend, even though everyone here is like.. why aren't they saying anything heh

[caneman]

Question...I'm in Pinellas..storm shutters are up all ready to go.... but it looks like the storm is really pushing east shouldn't it even moving more than the north....?? or is there still high confidence in the track?

Confidence in the track is extremely high at this point. Smaller details like exactly where in the Panhandle will hit are up in the air, but we can say confidently it's not coming to Tampa. There will still be impacts due to wind and surge though.

It isn't hitting the panhandle, its hitting the big bend

[Steve]

You won’t usually see a trough this deep unless the country is in a deep freeze. The cannibal cutoff is already entraining outflow moisture in southern Michigan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid