ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

898.6 extrap!

Are they rounding this up or down? Can't believe this

Down - they missed the eye! There were still 24 knot winds. Incredible

[Sciencerocks]

898.6 extrap!

with 64 knt flight level winds...Probably closer to ~892 to 894 mb's.

[Exalt]

Eye is about to disappear on IR. I would say EWRC.

https://tropicwatch.info/1007242022z.mp4

Or pinhole. Recon will tell.

The thing looks like Patricia. Wonder if it'll just pop out a new eye instantly, even if it is an EWRC, it doesn't seem to be hurting it at all, scary.

[aspen]

Holy crap it’s actually sub-900.

And with those 24kt winds at 898.6mb extrap, the actual pressure is likely 896-895mb.

[Airboy]

NOAA planes more or less always shows a bit too low extrap, so add 2-3 mb at least

[Owasso]

Looks like they missed the center, it's just to the south of that 898mb barb.

[Frank P]

901, take it to the bank

Recon reported 898.6 just before you posted lol

I need to see the NHC official pressure reading before I eat any crow thank you

[xironman]

Well at least extrap is sub 900mbs.

Given the winds probably 895mbs is closer to the mark, though a dropsonde will seal the deal.

Welcome to the historic club Milton...

You came back to join us

[ElectricStorm]

Also not seeing much of a double wind max like I thought there would be. Hopefully we get a SE quad pass next

[Keldeo1997]

Bye Bye Allen, Rita and 1935, your next

[PavelGaborik10]

NOAA planes more or less always shows a bit too low extrap, so add 2-3 mb at least

They clearly missed the center, so definitely don't add.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Sub-900. First in the Atlantic since Wilma. Probably deeper, more like 895mb.

[aspen]

NOAA planes more or less always shows a bit too low extrap, so add 2-3 mb at least

Oh right, forgot about that.

Since it did record 24 kt winds at that point, remove those 2-3 mb lol.

[HurricaneRyan]

Welp...

Even when this weakens, it's gonna be Florida's versionn of Ike.

[zzzh]

Note that there is no double wind maxima, ERWC is not starting soon.

[Pelicane]

Does the plane usually run low on the pressure? Or was that a dropsonde measurement.

[zal0phus]

1935 is in Danger

I think this is the single best analogue for 1935 we've ever seen. Tiny storm, tiny core, and explosive intensification while barely moving.

[Michele B]

I am a lurker on this site, but this one has me really concerned. I am a structural engineer and have done quite a bit of design work in Florida and I have also traveled to the state in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes. While my short visits are no comparison to the experience of living there, I understand somewhat. I say that to follow with this, I have an Aunt and Uncle that are snowbirds. They have already moved to the Gulf Coast, south of Sarasota. I am pleading with them to drive back to their permanent residence. My logic is as follows.

1. They are elderly. They do not need to be there potentially taking up the short supply of resources, without the ability to assist anyone.
2. They have booked a hotel a couple of miles inland, which in my opinion is not far enough from the coast. After the hurricane, that room may be needed for permanent residents and relief workers.
3. They have a home to go to, out of the way and safe. It will be an inconvenience to make the 12-hour drive north, but certainly better than trying to live on the central Gulf Coast after Wednesday.

My point of this post, if you are not a permanent resident, you need to get out of the way. Resources will be short.

To help convince them, you might add that they may not be able to get to their home for some time (maybe weeks) and there will probably be no electricity for just as long...IF their home survives the storm.

Living in such primitive conditions will wear on the most battle weary soul, especially hurricane hardened pros (like me?) who have been through lots of storms and as I "age," I am finding it harder to endure those conditions.

[Exalt]

NOAA planes more or less always shows a bit too low extrap, so add 2-3 mb at least

They missed the center though. So 895-896 seems about right.

[chaser1]

Until next pass, along with a solid wind reading below 30 kt