ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Milton's eye still looks to be contracting. Might see a Wilma size eye soon. Mid 890s pressure and 190mph winds are my guess.,,,,,,MGC

[Airboy]

NOA planes more or less always shows a bit too low extrap, so add 2-3 mb at least

They clearly missed the center, so definitely don't add.

Well add to the exrap before you adjust for the wind....

[KWT]

Holy crap it’s actually sub-900.

And with those 24kt winds at 898.6mb extrap, the actual pressure is likely 896-895mb.

Given current presentation I suspect it still has an hour or two at least to strengthen. Probably suggests a run towards 880s is on the cards. Massively hard to hold such tight cores any EWRC is going to take time ro relax such an absurd core. Wouldn't be shocked to see a violent tight core hold for a while even as outer eyewalls try to form.

[xironman]

Also not seeing much of a double wind max like I thought there would be. Hopefully we get a SE quad pass next

No EWRC yet

[Woofde]

Did not expect to be witnessing a historic storm with this one 3 days ago O_O. Holyyy

[cheezyWXguy]

Holding my breath for the dropsonde

[Kazmit]

NOA planes more or less always shows a bit too low extrap, so add 2-3 mb at least

Well since they missed the center, say it breaks even at 898.

[TomballEd]

HDOBS at that altitude could be off. Hopefully they can get a sonde into the eye on the next pass. Hopefully they get the center of the eye next pass.

[Keldeo1997]

Can't check if there is a rain rate spike outside of the EW because they have SFMR turned off.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

All Hail King Milton, King of the Gulf of Mexico

[Kazmit]

Squinting my eyes to find a double wind maxima on the graph, but nope it's not there.

[norva13x]

I wish I could admire the storm more but I'm just terrified

[REDHurricane]

Milton might legitimately beat out Wilma in both intensity and wind speed if the EWRC can hold off for several more hours...

[TomballEd]

No double wind max so far on recon. EWRC not started yet.

[aspen]

Can't check if there is a rain rate spike outside of the EW because they have SFMR turned off.

Fortunately the AF planes have kept SFMR on, and the next AF plane is on its way, so we should have rain rate data soon.

[Beef Stew]

Actually insane. 898.6 on a missed center pass, too. Welcome to the most elite echelon of Atlantic-basin hurricanes, Milton.

[Exalt]

Holy crap it’s actually sub-900.

And with those 24kt winds at 898.6mb extrap, the actual pressure is likely 896-895mb.

Given current presentation I suspect it still has an hour or two at least to strengthen. Probably suggests a run towards 880s is on the cards. Massively hard to hold such tight cores any EWRC is going to take time ro relax such an absurd core. Wouldn't be shocked to see a violent tight core hold for a while even as outer eyewalls try to form.

That's a bad thing no? Since the second wall will have time to fully form before taking over, which would mean not much of a drop in strength?

[Kazmit]

Milton is already listed as 898mb on the Atlantic hurricane records Wikipedia page.

[MississippiWx]

What an unbelievably tight core. Wow. Literally like a giant F5 tornado.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If it slips under 895mb, it'll surpass Rita as the strongest GOMEX storm in history.