ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Definitely looks more east but the GFS and ECMWF showed this happening all along before a turn to the NNE happens later today. Not sure why the NHC track didn’t just go with the blend of those very reliable models.

[MJGarrison]

CAPE rapidly increasing off the FL / GA shore.
Now up to 5000.
Will be a big effect for tornado development in that area

Are the CAPE numbers predicted from a model or actual observations based on satellite data? I can only find predictions of them based on models runs.


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[Recurve]

Just have to say, that huge right-lobe burst on satellite almost makes it look like Helene is punching straight at Tampa. It's not, I know! Optical illusion!
Right?

[GCANE]

Vort is stacked thru 300mb

[birdwomn]

Question...I'm in Pinellas..storm shutters are up all ready to go.... but it looks like the storm is really pushing east shouldn't it even moving more than the north....?? or is there still high confidence in the track?

Small adjustments in the track are expected. I recommend you refer to your local mets for details.

[kevin]

Recent recon pass found 102 kt FL winds in the same quadrant (S/SE) where the 100+ kt FL measurements were found in a previous pass. Seems sufficient for an upgrade to 90 kt.

[psyclone]

The storm might be a little right of track but not egregiously so. Maybe we're just reversing some of those earlier westward adjustments that degraded our early cycle wind probs (tampa had hurricane wind probs in the double digits early on and 50kt probs deep into the 20's)...

[sponger]

Definitely looks more east but the GFS and ECMWF showed this happening all along before a turn to the NNE happens later today. Not sure why the NHC track didn’t just go with the blend of those very reliable models.

I am assuming their TVCN consensus blend is polluted by UK Met data. That or they see something the GFS, Euro. Icon and Graf do not.

[GCANE]

Seeing a few lightning flashes on the NW eyewall

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The storm might be a little right of track but not egregiously so. Maybe we're just reversing some of those earlier westward adjustments that degraded our early cycle wind probs (tampa had hurricane wind probs in the double digits early on and 50kt probs deep into the 20's)...

Yeah, this storm is large enough to where small-scale wobbles don't particularly matter, unlike Idalia and Debby. The overall motion is perfectly on track.

[Powellrm]

Who is predicting cat 5? Ever? High cat 3 or low cat 4 is all that was ever reasonable.

IMO the bigger the storm is the lower the category will be and the higher the damage. This is why I think Saffir Simpson is useless for large storms, except to say that is this beast actually reaches cat 4 the damage will be extraordinary just from the surge alone.

Joe Bastardi is predicting Cat 5.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1839070525273870548

Is there any data or modeling that would support such an assertion? Or is he trying to get clicks?

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1839298602172297444

[sponger]

Full on shrimp mode!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

[Pipelines182]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

[Texashawk]

Full on shrimp mode!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

So much for the dry air issues. I think that ship has sailed

[Bob R]

Actually, it was Mike Seidel who was videoed struggling with the winds while the two boys walking normally in the background with no troubles standing up


Well Dang!!!! in my mind it was Cantore! Still liking the new channel discovery for coverage.

I thought it was Cantore, too.

So if it was Seidel, was he canned? Is that why he's on Fox Weather now?

It was Cantore.

[tolakram]

Who is predicting cat 5? Ever? High cat 3 or low cat 4 is all that was ever reasonable.

IMO the bigger the storm is the lower the category will be and the higher the damage. This is why I think Saffir Simpson is useless for large storms, except to say that is this beast actually reaches cat 4 the damage will be extraordinary just from the surge alone.

Joe Bastardi is predicting Cat 5.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1839070525273870548

Is there any data or modeling that would support such an assertion? Or is he trying to get clicks?

This is an older tweet and some of the earlier model runs shows a very intense system. We can't say what his motives are, only what he says.

[Nimbus]

Recent recon pass found 102 kt FL winds in the same quadrant (S/SE) where the 100+ kt FL measurements were found in a previous pass. Seems sufficient for an upgrade to 90 kt.

At least its tracking back on the expected course if not intensity.

[Kazmit]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

It's already a high-end cat 2 and it still has 12 hours.

[sponger]

Full on shrimp mode!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

So much for the dry air issues. I think that ship has sailed

Yep she is ready to take off. I am still expecting strong Cat 3 at landfall unless that shear can get to her like we are seeing on some of the hurricane models. Stadium eye will be here soon and if that combines with a East shift at 11, all hell is going to break loose!