ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Actually, it was Mike Seidel who was videoed struggling with the winds while the two boys walking normally in the background with no troubles standing up


Well Dang!!!! in my mind it was Cantore! Still liking the new channel discovery for coverage.

I thought it was Cantore, too.

So if it was Seidel, was he canned? Is that why he's on Fox Weather now?

It was Cantore.

No it was not, and if you google you can find the video. I don't think he was faking it, I think he was expecting stronger gusts, but whatever. People believe what they want to believe. For all we know after the video ends the walkers were knocked down by a gust. I like Mike.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

It's already at a modest Cat 2 with 14 hours till land fall with a fully closed Eyewall. A strong cat 3 is still extremely plausible and Cat 4 is by no means to be written off. But at this point the storm is so large I doubt it will really matter if it is Cat 3 or 4.

[HurricaneBelle]

Actually, it was Mike Seidel who was videoed struggling with the winds while the two boys walking normally in the background with no troubles standing up


Well Dang!!!! in my mind it was Cantore! Still liking the new channel discovery for coverage.

I thought it was Cantore, too.

So if it was Seidel, was he canned? Is that why he's on Fox Weather now?

It was Cantore.

To settle this once and for all, it was Seidel. Here is the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ter2vtUPbRI

[sponger]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

It's already at a modest Cat 2 with 14 hours till land fall with a fully closed Eyewall. A strong cat 3 is still extremely plausible and Cat 4 is by no means to be written off. But at this point the storm is so large I doubt it will really matter if it is Cat 3 or 4.

Exactly, except for a few people foolish enough not to evacuate. The impact on millions will be little changed. I can only imagine the power out numbers tomorrow. I am going to guess 6 million. Any other bets?

[thickiminaj]

New to this particular forum.

I have a video that lends itself perfectly to the “East of track” discourse to show by how much - but I apparently cannot figure out how to upload said video.

Am I unable to do it directly? Do I need to upload it to an Imgur type site, or?

[skillz305]

Any track experts noticing a more NE than NNE movement? I’m at work

[Nimbus]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

It's already at a modest Cat 2 with 14 hours till land fall with a fully closed Eyewall. A strong cat 3 is still extremely plausible and Cat 4 is by no means to be written off. But at this point the storm is so large I doubt it will really matter if it is Cat 3 or 4.

The slowdown inland is important as well since tropical storm force winds and torrential rains will be focused over a longer time frame. Roots don't hold as well in mud after 10 inches of rain. Atlanta still has tropical storm forecast beginning tomorrow?

[Pipelines182]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

It's already a high-end cat 2 and it still has 12 hours.

It's a minimal cat 2 right now. Damage increases exponentially with wind speed, there is a very big difference in wind damage from a 3 to a 4, the size just makes that category difference even more important.

[HurricaneBelle]

After a dreary predawn and early morning, the sun is now out in Pinellas County.

[LandoWill]

Recent recon pass found 102 kt FL winds in the same quadrant (S/SE) where the 100+ kt FL measurements were found in a previous pass. Seems sufficient for an upgrade to 90 kt.

At least its tracking back on the expected course if not intensity.

https://i.imgur.com/KgoloSI.jpeg

Still too early to tell if the trend will continue, but this is on the ADJUSTED 8am track. They adjusted it slightly at 8am without noting it - Here is radar with track

[sponger]

Any track experts noticing a more NE than NNE movement? I’m at work

Pretty substantial East jog but it may jog back. It is stair stepping its way against the High to its East.

[technikal]

Full on shrimp mode!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

So much for the dry air issues. I think that ship has sailed

Yep she is ready to take off. I am still expecting strong Cat 3 at landfall unless that shear can get to her like we are seeing on some of the hurricane models. Stadium eye will be here soon and if that combines with a East shift at 11, all hell is going to break loose!

I don’t see a storm ready for RI. My bet is moderate strengthening kept and landfall as a low cat 3.

[tolakram]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

It's already at a modest Cat 2 with 14 hours till land fall with a fully closed Eyewall. A strong cat 3 is still extremely plausible and Cat 4 is by no means to be written off. But at this point the storm is so large I doubt it will really matter if it is Cat 3 or 4.

Exactly, except for a few people foolish enough not to evacuate. The impact on millions will be little changed. I can only imagine the power out numbers tomorrow. I am going to guess 6 million. Any other bets?

Was trying to explain this to my wife. Ike was not predicted and our area way up here experienced gusts to 70+mph which knocked out numerous trees and left a lot without power. If that happens again the number could be very high well away from landfall.

[thickiminaj]

[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk[/imgur]


I have no idea if this will work. But if it does, here’s a good visual.

[BUD]

Any track experts noticing a more NE than NNE movement? I’m at work

I noticed this....watching this on long range radar ....

[thickiminaj]

Someone teach me what I’m doing wrong.

I just wanna show you guys this video but actually post the video not the link to it.

This is the link to the video I’ve been trying to post to show y’all Helene’s actual movement overlay on the NHC track to show east movement.

https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

[thickiminaj]

:oops: Someone teach me what I’m doing wrong.

I just wanna show you guys this video but actually post the video not the link to it.

https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

Click on this to see a video of Helene overlaid on the NHC track.

[sponger]

Recent recon pass found 102 kt FL winds in the same quadrant (S/SE) where the 100+ kt FL measurements were found in a previous pass. Seems sufficient for an upgrade to 90 kt.

At least its tracking back on the expected course if not intensity.
Still too early to tell if the trend will continue, but this is on the ADJUSTED 8am track. They adjusted it slightly at 8am without noting it - Here is radar with track

Wow!

[WaveBreaking]

[drewschmaltz]

So these NHC people are pretty good at the track these days, huh? I don't have any data on it. But, part of the fun here is the questioning of the forecast. Yeah, sometimes it's based on achey knees and -removed-. But, sometimes it's founded on some solid principles or data gathering. Back to my point - it seems that the NHC forecast is amazingly accurate these days. From the delayed naming of Helene to the east / west wobbles, NHC is dialed in. Keep questioning! But good luck being right lol.