ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Powellrm]

It isn't hitting the panhandle, its hitting the big bend

I consider the Big Bend in the Panhandle, sorry not sorry

Facts are facts

Feeling are also facts?

[MJGarrison]

At least its tracking back on the expected course if not intensity.
Still too early to tell if the trend will continue, but this is on the ADJUSTED 8am track. They adjusted it slightly at 8am without noting it - Here is radar with track

Wow!

I believe in the intermediate advisories they move the current location of the storm and connect it up to the existing forecast points. So it looks like the first leg of the track moves, but the forecast points stays the same.


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[johngaltfla]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

It's already at a modest Cat 2 with 14 hours till land fall with a fully closed Eyewall. A strong cat 3 is still extremely plausible and Cat 4 is by no means to be written off. But at this point the storm is so large I doubt it will really matter if it is Cat 3 or 4.

Never doubt a gulf cane. Too many forget that it only took Charley, granted a smaller system, only 2 hours to go from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4. And the area the storm is entering into in the gulf has a CAPE of around 3500 last I checked, so the fuel is there.

[Teban54]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

It's already a high-end cat 2 and it still has 12 hours.

It's a minimal cat 2 right now. Damage increases exponentially with wind speed, there is a very big difference in wind damage from a 3 to a 4, the size just makes that category difference even more important.

The official intensity 2 hours ago was a minimal Cat 2, but the continued presence of 102 kt FL winds (over two recon passes) gives good arguments for a current intensity of 90 kt.

Also, what you're talking about is just wind damage, or damage from a small swath of wind in the "correct" quadrant of the eyewall. With a large storm like Helene, both the surge and extent of which strong (but necessarily peak) winds are spread out will cause far more effects, and those don't necessarily depend heavily on peak wind.

[skillz305]

:oops: Someone teach me what I’m doing wrong.

I just wanna show you guys this video but actually post the video not the link to it.

This is the link to the video I’ve been trying to post to show y’all Helene’s actual movement overlay on the NHC track to show east movement.

https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

Wow! That’s one hell of a wobble

[chris_fit]

https://i.imgur.com/kOrYrWr.gif

Can you provide the source of these images? Would like to bookmark that site.

[Nimbus]

So much for the dry air issues. I think that ship has sailed

Yep she is ready to take off. I am still expecting strong Cat 3 at landfall unless that shear can get to her like we are seeing on some of the hurricane models. Stadium eye will be here soon and if that combines with a East shift at 11, all hell is going to break loose!

I don’t see a storm ready for RI. My bet is moderate strengthening kept and landfall as a low cat 3.

Outflow is expanding symmetrically and unsheared in the northwest quadrant unfortunately.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I would like to mention most small compact hurricanes are akin to a bullet. Wherever you get hit it will do a ton of damage. I think this storm will be more like a cannon. While it may not do as much damage to a single area, it will do a heck of a lot of damage to a structure than a bullet would. Large cat 2+ swaths of winds do a whole lot of overall damage compared to just a small area of cat 4 winds.

[Pipelines182]

So these NHC people are pretty good at the track these days, huh? I don't have any data on it. But, part of the fun here is the questioning of the forecast. Yeah, sometimes it's based on achey knees and -removed-. But, sometimes it's founded on some solid principles or data gathering. Back to my point - it seems that the NHC forecast is amazingly accurate these days. From the delayed naming of Helene to the east / west wobbles, NHC is dialed in. Keep questioning! But good luck being right lol.

the NHC is great at track, especially 3-4 days out, the improvement has been significant over the past 20 years.

Intensity forecasting on the other hand is still pretty poor, there hasn't been much improvement on that front unfortunately.

[Powellrm]

Joe Bastardi is predicting Cat 5.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1839070525273870548

Is there any data or modeling that would support such an assertion? Or is he trying to get clicks?

This is an older tweet and some of the earlier model runs shows a very intense system. We can't say what his motives are, only what he says.

Gotcha! Thanks for the clarification on that. Hadn’t noticed it was old.

[Steve]

:oops: Someone teach me what I’m doing wrong.

I just wanna show you guys this video but actually post the video not the link to it.

This is the link to the video I’ve been trying to post to show y’all Helene’s actual movement overlay on the NHC track to show east movement.

https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

You got it. It’s img /img to link a hosted photo or video. Pretty cool so thanks.

[cheezyWXguy]

Glad to wake up this AM to see Helene only modestly stronger and not going through RI like predicted. That bit of dry air absolutely wrecked the core and it seems the storm is still trying to sort that core out. With time running out, it may not be able to before landfall. Cat 5 is off the table, Cat 4 likely is as well, I'm still sticking to my prediction yesterday of a Strong 2 / Weak 3 at landfall.

I've already said this a hundred times but dry air in the core can not be modeled properly, once that happens it's rolling the dice on when it'll mix out, seems like we likely rolled in our favor this time.

It's already a high-end cat 2 and it still has 12 hours.

It's a minimal cat 2 right now. Damage increases exponentially with wind speed, there is a very big difference in wind damage from a 3 to a 4, the size just makes that category difference even more important.

For one thing, this storm has intensified pretty significantly and the appearance reflects that. Last night this was in the low 970s and recon justified maybe 60-65kt winds. It’s now, likely conservatively, at 85kt.

Secondly, category means nothing about how winds are distributed. Those max winds are found only in a portion of the eyewall, which makes up no more than a couple percent of the storm’s areal expanse. In Helene, hurricane winds are distributed over a huge area, much larger than your average hurricane. This means not only a wider expanse of wind damage, but the ability to fetch a surge that is disproportionately large compared to its intensity, even if it does make it to cat4. As others have mentioned, think of Ike.

[emings]

It's already at a modest Cat 2 with 14 hours till land fall with a fully closed Eyewall. A strong cat 3 is still extremely plausible and Cat 4 is by no means to be written off. But at this point the storm is so large I doubt it will really matter if it is Cat 3 or 4.

Exactly, except for a few people foolish enough not to evacuate. The impact on millions will be little changed. I can only imagine the power out numbers tomorrow. I am going to guess 6 million. Any other bets?

Was trying to explain this to my wife. Ike was not predicted and our area way up here experienced gusts to 70+mph which knocked out numerous trees and left a lot without power. If that happens again the number could be very high well away from landfall.

Ike was no joke lots of downed trees...even Beryl Cat 1 downed a ton of trees I feel like alot of people are underestimating this storm

[cycloneye]

He is still chasing for the best spot.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839304666565456245

[Woofde]

I have been talking amongst a lot of other chasers and people who do this for a living. It does seem that the sentiment on the ground is Cat 3. The storm is so big, not sure it's going to be able to rapidly intensify, we shall see, not ruled out yet. I'm still leaning on just west of Perry for the eye, that's where most of the models I trust are zoned in. That East jog could be a complication, though we need to see if it will stick. These just as often will jog back.

[LandoWill]

:oops: Someone teach me what I’m doing wrong.

I just wanna show you guys this video but actually post the video not the link to it.

This is the link to the video I’ve been trying to post to show y’all Helene’s actual movement overlay on the NHC track to show east movement.

https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

You got it. It’s img /img to link a hosted photo or video. Pretty cool so thanks.

I think what they are asking is.. where is the website that shows it like that, i think we all want to see it lol

[Pipelines182]

It's already a high-end cat 2 and it still has 12 hours.

It's a minimal cat 2 right now. Damage increases exponentially with wind speed, there is a very big difference in wind damage from a 3 to a 4, the size just makes that category difference even more important.

The official intensity 2 hours ago was a minimal Cat 2, but the continued presence of 102 kt FL winds (over two recon passes) gives good arguments for a current intensity of 90 kt.

Also, what you're talking about is just wind damage, or damage from a small swath of wind in the "correct" quadrant of the eyewall. With a large storm like Helene, both the surge and extent of which strong (but necessarily peak) winds are spread out will cause far more effects, and those don't necessarily depend heavily on peak wind.

Flight level winds are not surface winds, we've seen many times where the NHC doesn't upgrade just based on flight level winds. Until they upgrade it, it's a minimal cat 2, I'm not going to argue with the professionals, especially over 5 MPH.

Higher peak winds means the pressure dropped, a lower pressure extends and strengthens the wind field. A stronger and larger wind field means more damage, both from surge and wind. This isn't downplaying the amount of damage Helene can inflict in it's current state, but a cat 4 Helene would do significantly more damage than a Cat 2/3 on all fronts.

[chris_fit]

NW quad is weakest by farrr. If this goes E of Tally, damage hopefully will be minimal there.

[FLDataDude]

I have been talking amongst a lot of other chasers and people who do this for a living. It does seem that the sentiment on the ground is Cat 3. The storm is so big, not sure it's going to be able to rapidly intensify, we shall see, not ruled out yet. I'm still leaning on just west of Perry for the eye, that's where most of the models I trust are zoned in. That East jog could be a complication, though we need to see if it will stick. These just as often will jog back.

Pretty big jump for it to be just a jog. But you are right that it could bounce back.

[Woofde]

He is still chasing for the best spot.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839304666565456245

I think that's probably for the best lmao. Had the storm really come into Tallahasse, you couldn't pay me to go where Josh is. If something went wrong with that building, it would pretty much just be gameover for him with the surge.