ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PavelGaborik10]

NOA planes more or less always shows a bit too low extrap, so add 2-3 mb at least

They clearly missed the center, so definitely don't add.

Well add to the exrap before you adjust for the wind....

No point, they essentially cancel each other out.

the drop confirmed it was a legitimate reading, 899 VDM.

[Exalt]

Zooming in on this 1200 × 845 image, I found that the eye is only 9 pixels.

https://i.ibb.co/hCzsnfV/Milton-10.jpg

This seriously looks like something out of the West Pacific...

Florida better pray there's some random influx of dust or shear before landfall, god forbid this is Haiyan 2.0 The Atlantic Boogaloo.

[FrontRunner]

I guess we'll see how things are trending on the next center pass, but based on the eye size and other data, does it seem likely that we didn't miss the peak in between recon missions?

[PDKlikatino]

Has Milton exceeded the MPI for the area?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I guess we'll see how things are trending on the next center pass, but based on the eye size and other data, does it seem likely that we didn't miss the peak in between recon missions?

Yes. People mistook the pinhole eye for a cloud-filled eye.

[zzzh]

Has Milton exceeded the MPI for the area?

Yes, but MPI is a pure theoretical, useless product.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Unbelievable. Wow. This is some incredible stuff no one was predicting, and it could still strengthen

[Owasso]

I guess we'll see how things are trending on the next center pass, but based on the eye size and other data, does it seem likely that we didn't miss the peak in between recon missions?

It looks to me like it's been strengthening the whole time. 912 to 899mb still qualifies for ERI and the structure hasn't gotten worse, if anything it's improved.

[aspen]

180/899 is a little less intense than I would’ve done but it’s official, first sub-900 in almost twenty years.

[hipshot]

A P3 is not as robust as a C130. Praying for those guys.

I was in a P3 flight crew during the late 60's and even a tough thunder storm will get your attention. I sure as hell wouldn't want to be
on that aircraft, hope they will be O.K.

[KWT]

I guess we'll see how things are trending on the next center pass, but based on the eye size and other data, does it seem likely that we didn't miss the peak in between recon missions?

Yes. People mistook the pinhole eye for a cloud-filled eye.

The eye is so small it's starting to get difficult for the satelites resolution to get a real accurate read in terms of what the inner most core is doing. Basically another Wilma here, no reason to think it won't get into the same ballpark at peak (880-890mbs)

[Stormgodess]

Does Florida have a Contraflow plan like Louisiana does? Where all lanes of the interstates flow North? I'm seeing posts all over of the interstates at almost a standstill

[Exalt]

Unbelievable. Wow. This is some incredible stuff no one was predicting, and it could still strengthen

Do we even see this dropping below Cat 5 at this point? The eye won't pass over the Yucatan, and are conditions near FL that bad for development/stability?

[Kazmit]

[kevin]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

https://i.ibb.co/j3L2x8n/Milton-11.png

One of the all-time greats.

[HurricaneBelle]

Does Florida have a Contraflow plan like Louisiana does? Where all lanes of the interstates flow North? I'm seeing posts all over of the interstates at almost a standstill

No, but they do allow use of the shoulder as an additional lane.

[Sciencerocks]

This thing is still bombing. I wouldn't be shocked to see this get down near Gilbert pressure in the next few hours.

[aspen]

Unbelievable. Wow. This is some incredible stuff no one was predicting, and it could still strengthen

Do we even see this dropping below Cat 5 at this point? The eye won't pass over the Yucatan, and are conditions near FL that bad for development/stability?

Shear is going to significantly increase in the last 12-24 hours before Florida. Combine that with an interaction with a trough, and it should weaken rapidly before landfall.

[CronkPSU]

Does Florida have a Contraflow plan like Louisiana does? Where all lanes of the interstates flow North? I'm seeing posts all over of the interstates at almost a standstill

No, but they do allow use of the shoulder as an additional lane.

Which was awesome on the ride home today…but even then it was starting to back up, will get worse and worse as people get home, pack and leave tonight