ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

[Stratton23]

way stronger than i thouvht, NHC had the pressure earier st 974 mb wow

[ColdFusion]

NHC has done a great job with this one. They have a good handle on it.

[galaxy401]

Wind speeds seem to be line with the NHC advisory. Could be a Cat 3 though if they are on the NE eyewall.

[Nimbus]

Extrap 961.9mb, it did indeed strengthen.

The models from yesterday were wrong again.
5PM NHC discussion noted the expanding cirrus in the NE quadrant.
Tonight I'm interested in the forward speed, if recon finds that the steering currents are easing that would mean delayed landfalls. Beryl was moving nice and quickly away from Jamaica but she looks like she might have slowed down a little since the trough split.

[weeniepatrol]

Dropsonde confirms 962mb. Strengthening hurricane.

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1809018306185286023




 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1809017879612043273




 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1809020072117010665

[WaveBreaking]

Hoping that Beryl's time over the Yucatan will disrupt its core enough to stop it from reconsolidating significantly, like what happened to Delta.

[MississippiWx]

NHC has done a great job with this one. They have a good handle on it.

They have done well with track, but intensity-wise, everyone has been playing catchup. No one had Beryl at 962mb at this point…and strengthening.

[jaguars_22]

So even if the storm goes further south on the Yucatán but it’s stronger does that still mean more north into Texas later?

[GCANE]

Eye is open on the SW.
The eyedrop showed a not well saturated core.

[cheezyWXguy]

So even if the storm goes further south on the Yucatán but it’s stronger does that still mean more north into Texas later?

Landfall is pretty close to locked in now, clipping or just south of the southern tip of Cozumel, so further south than that isn’t really an option now. Regardless, the idea is that a stronger storm may feel the influence of trough slightly earlier or more significantly. I have an uneasy feeling that the models showing beryl too weak are underestimating how far north this could get, but there’s not a lot I can point to for this claim until these models initialize properly. Its fun to speculate, but I’d stick to the NHC forecasts for decision making.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye is open on the SW.
The eyedrop showed a not well saturated core.

Makes sense, we’ve seen numerous towers today rotate down from the ne quad and then it a wall in the sw quad.

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

Josh in Yucatán doing what he does very good.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1809001529955004581

[CrazyC83]

I think we will need a track adjustment in the next update northward in addition to the intensity. Beryl has been defying all odds - if it can keep an inner core across the Yucatan, we could have big issues for Texas.

[Xyls]

Josh in Yucatán doing what he does very good.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1809001529955004581

Still kinda surprised he chose not to be there for the landfall in The Grenadines.

[Keldeo1997]

Josh in Yucatán doing what he does very good.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1809001529955004581

Still kinda surprised he chose not to be there for the landfall in The Grenadines.

Probably learned his lesson to not trap himself on an Island being stuck by a CAT 5 like Dorian.

[Category5Kaiju]

Josh in Yucatán doing what he does very good.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1809001529955004581

Still kinda surprised he chose not to be there for the landfall in The Grenadines.

He decided against it because there was a greater risk that he would miss the core if the storm made just the *right* wobble. Especially considering those islands are extremely small.

[Kazmit]

That recon pass supports a borderline cat 3 IMO.