ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

I mean NHC has it 125 mph at landfall…unless it misses Tampa by a lot, seems very unlikely it would max out to tropical storms winds in Tampa

125 would be in a small are within the eyewall. Most of the area would get 80-100 MPH winds which are quite bad enough, thank you. The only thing we can really hope for is that the maximum winds usually aren't mixed down very well in a hurricane weakening at landfall, but even if that's the case strong winds will still be spread out and of course this does nothing to minimize surge.

[KWT]

I think the CDG is sufficient enough for T8.0 if the eye can warm a little on BD/IRA.

It's a comfortable 7.5 but yeah it's mighty close to that 8.0. With such a tiny pinhole eye though it's probably never going to quite make that 8.0 I suspect.

[zzzh]

NOAA latest pass showed some signature of double wind maxima.

[Owasso]

916mb, highest FL is 155kt. Not at the center yet, that'll come in the next update.

[ScottNAtlanta]

My parents are supposed to drive down to Bonita Springs in a week (snow birds). My Mom told me that the development where their house is was told to evacuate due to surge. That didn't even happen with Ian. I have been trying to get them to delay a week, but they aren't hearing it

[birdwomn]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

I mean NHC has it 125 mph at landfall…unless it misses Tampa by a lot, seems very unlikely it would max out to tropical storms winds in Tampa

125 would be in a small are within the eyewall. Most of the area would get 80-100 MPH winds which are quite bad enough, thank you. The only thing we can really hope for is that the maximum winds usually aren't mixed down very well in a hurricane weakening at landfall, but even if that's the case strong winds will still be spread out and of course this does nothing to minimize surge.

Pinellas County is 38 miles long and has almost 1 million people. "Small area" is all relative. Imagine what that wind would do blowing water up into Tampa Bay.

[Exalt]

THIS! I am in no way downplaying it but it will weaken a decent amount before landfall, that won't stop the storm surge but it WILL NOT hit as a cat 5! Likely a 3 maybe a low end 4.

The issue is forecasts have been off, I think it's better to treat it as a potential Cat 4 or Cat 5 landfall than sit in the Cat 3 camp, we truly don't know about conditions even two days out, anything could happen.

To be fair they always say prepare for the next category up to be safe. I'd be preparing on the coast for a top end 4 personally. Better safe than sorry. Only takes an unexpected alignment for it to pull a Michael, the margins are going to be fairly fine for a time between aiding and destroying.

Yeah I told my dad to evacuate, even though he's in Doral, just to be safe. Who knows how badly this thing might expand by the time it gets there. It's literally Patricia 2.0, went from a messy tropical storm to a potential record-breaking horror in the matter of a day and a half, again, anything can happen unfortunately :\

[longhorn2004]

Do we even see this dropping below Cat 5 at this point? The eye won't pass over the Yucatan, and are conditions near FL that bad for development/stability?

Shear is going to significantly increase in the last 12-24 hours before Florida. Combine that with an interaction with a trough, and it should weaken rapidly before landfall.

THIS! I am in no way downplaying it but it will weaken a decent amount before landfall, that won't stop the storm surge but it WILL NOT hit as a cat 5! Likely a 3 maybe a low end 4.

An amazing lesson in physics.

[caneman]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

Which one said that? I work in the industry and would love to know.

[KWT]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

I mean NHC has it 125 mph at landfall…unless it misses Tampa by a lot, seems very unlikely it would max out to tropical storms winds in Tampa

125 would be in a small are within the eyewall. Most of the area would get 80-100 MPH winds which are quite bad enough, thank you. The only thing we can really hope for is that the maximum winds usually aren't mixed down very well in a hurricane weakening at landfall, but even if that's the case strong winds will still be spread out and of course this does nothing to minimize surge.

We had a storm here in the south of the UK in 2022 (Eunice) that gave legitimate 80mph gusts locally and it was so impressive. People really ought not underestimate those sorts of winds!

[FLLurker32]

Florida traffic update:

My friend just called. They left Sarasota 7 hours ago on I 75 to go to Gainesville. According to Google maps, they have 2 hours to go.

Also, am I close in my calculations: If landfall around Tampa is 2 am, eye passing Orlando area around 7am - 8 am with major winds leaving area around noon?

I’m in southern Marion county. I75 through Marion is bumper to bumper and if they try to bypass using 301/441 they will find the same. Gas is hard to find throughout the county as of this evening. Anyone traveling up I75 needs to make sure they have plenty of time and do not allow yourself to run even close to low on fuel before searching for a station that may have some.

[caneman]

Shear is going to significantly increase in the last 12-24 hours before Florida. Combine that with an interaction with a trough, and it should weaken rapidly before landfall.

THIS! I am in no way downplaying it but it will weaken a decent amount before landfall, that won't stop the storm surge but it WILL NOT hit as a cat 5! Likely a 3 maybe a low end 4.

An amazing lesson in physics.

And that means what? A Cat 3 or 4 is still devastating and Cat 5 surge. Would be extremely devastating when coupled with what just happened with Helene and still near zero recovery

[Exalt]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

Which one said that? I work in the industry and would love to know.

Right, incredibly irresponsible. Name and shame.

[dukeblue219]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

My thought is that you misheard or misunderstood something.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

I mean NHC has it 125 mph at landfall…unless it misses Tampa by a lot, seems very unlikely it would max out to tropical storms winds in Tampa

125 would be in a small are within the eyewall. Most of the area would get 80-100 MPH winds which are quite bad enough, thank you. The only thing we can really hope for is that the maximum winds usually aren't mixed down very well in a hurricane weakening at landfall, but even if that's the case strong winds will still be spread out and of course this does nothing to minimize surge.

Winds are irrelevant if you are 20 feet underwater.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Does anyone think recon will get a 200mph wind while they are out there. It will be close. 174kts and that's 200mph

[jlauderdal]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

My thought is that you misheard or misunderstood something.

Dennis Phillips was showing some very moderate wind speeds.

[Hurrilurker]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

Are you sure they weren't saying the pressure could max(min) out in the mid (9)60s? That's plausible, max 60 mph winds in Tampa are not, given current modeling.

[Lightning48]

It was Denis Phillips of our local ABC affiliate here in Tampa. I don’t have a link as I was watching it on TV on his Denis Phillips live segment live program.

[Sciencerocks]