ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[boca]

They're keeping that track well to the west. I feel a helluva lot better here seeing that. I just want some porch sitting squalls, cocktails and bong hauls...keep that core offshore. I was fearful of a Levy or Dixie county landfall estimate taking the center much closer to the FL west coast..

I’ll be on my porch on the east coast drinking cocktails.

[Blown Away]

@18.5N/81.5W looking right to me…

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like multiple eddys including the NHC position which seems to be the most prominent one also no convection on the west side

[Pipelines182]

I really really hate the way the NHC issues these intensity forecasts. I think their estimate is fine, but they really need to do a better job of broadcasting the ceiling on this storm is significantly higher than 95kt. Most people don't read anymore except for headlines, all they're going to see is "forecast to make landfall as a cat 2". When in reality they need to be seeing "forecast to make landfall anywhere from Cat 2 - 4".

Anyone who doesn't take a high-end cat 2 seriously has only themselves to blame. Plus, they do state in their discussion: "While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary."

The difference in damage between a Cat 2 and a Cat 4 is immense, many people will hunker down for anything less than a major and I can't blame them.

I mentioned something about people only reading headlines. What percentage of the population do you think is sitting down and reading a forecast discussion issued by the NHC? I would think it's very, very low. I personally don't know a single person that reads them, only us weather nerds and those in the field.

[3090]

Looks like a CAT2 according to latest guidance from NHC. Nothing more than a Francine type of hurricane. But prepare for 1 category higher as typical.

[tulum07]

Those who heed the warnings will be safe. The naysayers will be swept away. Wake up!

[3090]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/15Mm6S76/goes16-vis-09-L-202409231255.gif [/url]

@18.5N/81.5W looking right to me…

Looks to be moving ever slow slightly west with all of the tstorms greatly displaced to the east of the center. Still does not have its act together. A ways to go. Thank goodness.

[Teban54]

Looks like a CAT2 according to latest guidance from NHC. Nothing more than a Francine type of hurricane. But prepare for 1 category higher as typical.

Even if you discount the fact that 95 kt is a high-end Cat 2 while Francine peaked as a low-end Cat 2, NHC literally said this:

While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary.

[Ken711]

Looks like a CAT2 according to latest guidance from NHC. Nothing more than a Francine type of hurricane. But prepare for 1 category higher as typical.

We too early to determine the ultimate CAT status at landfall.

[Kazmit]

I really really hate the way the NHC issues these intensity forecasts. I think their estimate is fine, but they really need to do a better job of broadcasting the ceiling on this storm is significantly higher than 95kt. Most people don't read anymore except for headlines, all they're going to see is "forecast to make landfall as a cat 2". When in reality they need to be seeing "forecast to make landfall anywhere from Cat 2 - 4".

Anyone who doesn't take a high-end cat 2 seriously has only themselves to blame. Plus, they do state in their discussion: "While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary."

The difference in damage between a Cat 2 and a Cat 4 is immense, many people will hunker down for anything less than a major and I can't blame them.

I mentioned something about people only reading headlines. What percentage of the population do you think is sitting down and reading a forecast discussion issued by the NHC? I would think it's very, very low. I personally don't know a single person that reads them, only us weather nerds and those in the field.

The NHC can't control what the media does with the information they put out. Criticise the media, not the NHC.

[3090]

Those who heed the warnings will be safe. The naysayers will be swept away. Wake up!

BE READY! Get moving. That is the best advice. And get out. No need to ever stay within the path of any hurricane even the CAT1 or CAT2 types. You never know what even those could bring. If you can leave just for say ONE day until things settle down, why not?

[WeatherBoy2000]

Looks like a CAT2 according to latest guidance from NHC. Nothing more than a Francine type of hurricane. But prepare for 1 category higher as typical.

The nhc is typically conservative, them coming out of the gate with a high end cat 2 (110 mph) is eyebrow raising. This first forecast is higher than any forecast they produced for Francine.

[Pipelines182]

Anyone who doesn't take a high-end cat 2 seriously has only themselves to blame. Plus, they do state in their discussion: "While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary."

The difference in damage between a Cat 2 and a Cat 4 is immense, many people will hunker down for anything less than a major and I can't blame them.

I mentioned something about people only reading headlines. What percentage of the population do you think is sitting down and reading a forecast discussion issued by the NHC? I would think it's very, very low. I personally don't know a single person that reads them, only us weather nerds and those in the field.

The NHC can't control what the media does with the information they put out. Criticise the media, not the NHC.

The NHC mission statement "To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards."

We can criticize both, can't we? The NHC is constantly adapting their forecast products, that's why we have a new experimental forecast cone this year. No reason they can't adjust their intensity forecasts as well.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This storm looks like it will track near me (ATL). I think the ceiling is up to around a High cat 4 with this systems. All depends on how fast it gets together.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like a CAT2 according to latest guidance from NHC. Nothing more than a Francine type of hurricane. But prepare for 1 category higher as typical.

???

They're calling for RI to a 95 knot Category 2 with many more hours to go before landfall. That's as close as "we're calling for a major hurricane landfall" as you're going to get from the NHC from a PTC.

[3090]

Looks like a CAT2 according to latest guidance from NHC. Nothing more than a Francine type of hurricane. But prepare for 1 category higher as typical.

We too early to determine the ultimate CAT status at landfall.

Not speculating. I am going only bY OFFICIAL NHC forecast. Anything lower or higher is highly speculative. There is a lot of times too much hysteria by the non professionals.

I am sure there will be updates up/down in forecast intensity as it evolves like always. Stay the course. Be vigilant. And pay sttention to the NHC OFFICIAL products issued.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like a CAT2 according to latest guidance from NHC. Nothing more than a Francine type of hurricane. But prepare for 1 category higher as typical.

To compare this storm to Francine is a fool’s errand. Even if by luck it lands at only the same intensity, the impacts due its larger size will be more significant. I wouldn’t be taking the NHC’s projected intensity as gospel at the moment, given the rather extreme outcomes displayed on the models over the last day. They’re just models, yes, but they denote the potential for a higher intensity than current forecast, and the NHC discussion does note that.

[3090]

This storm looks like it will track near me (ATL). I think the ceiling is up to around a High cat 4 with this systems. All depends on how fast it gets together.

Not being officially forecast as a CAT4. Currently; officially a CAT2.

[3090]

Looks like a CAT2 according to latest guidance from NHC. Nothing more than a Francine type of hurricane. But prepare for 1 category higher as typical.

To compare this storm to Francine is a fool’s errand. Even if by luck it lands at only the same intensity, the impacts due its larger size will be more significant. I wouldn’t be taking the NHC’s projected intensity as gospel at the moment, given the rather extreme outcomes displayed on the models over the last day. They’re just models, yes, but they denote the potential for a higher intensity than current forecast, and the NHC discussion does note that.

OK..then forecast for a major then. IDK what to say at this pont other than it is CURRENTLY OFFICIALY TO BE A CAT2. Subject to change OF COURSE!

And BTW. One of the most respected pros on this forum is forecasting a CAT2 at landfall. So.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This storm looks like it will track near me (ATL). I think the ceiling is up to around a High cat 4 with this systems. All depends on how fast it gets together.

Not being officially forecast as a CAT4. Currently; officially a CAT2.

Yes, but respectfully you're not looking at that intensity in relation to the cone. NHC only issues in 24 hour increments. The landfall point / maximum intensity is nearly 12 hours after the 95 knot point. You are confusing this with "peak" intensity.

Unless you can point to me in the actual discussion they call for a steady Cat 2 to landfall, it's not tough to read in between the lines the NHC's thinking here.