#270 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 23, 2024 10:43 am
Pipelines182 wrote:Kazmit wrote:Pipelines182 wrote:I really really hate the way the NHC issues these intensity forecasts. I think their estimate is fine, but they really need to do a better job of broadcasting the ceiling on this storm is significantly higher than 95kt. Most people don't read anymore except for headlines, all they're going to see is "forecast to make landfall as a cat 2". When in reality they need to be seeing "forecast to make landfall anywhere from Cat 2 - 4".
Anyone who doesn't take a high-end cat 2 seriously has only themselves to blame. Plus, they do state in their discussion: "While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary."
The difference in damage between a Cat 2 and a Cat 4 is immense, many people will hunker down for anything less than a major and I can't blame them.
I mentioned something about people only reading headlines. What percentage of the population do you think is sitting down and reading a forecast discussion issued by the NHC? I would think it's very, very low. I personally don't know a single person that reads them, only us weather nerds and those in the field.
The NHC can't control what the media does with the information they put out. Criticise the media, not the NHC.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.