ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

Extrap 903.5mb. Weakening fast.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just saw that all tolls have been suspended for most of the state of Florida. Also, looks like traffic is a mess because there are tons of wrecks, and a huge one on 75 in Gainesville blocking all the northbound lanes

[Owasso]

903.5mb with 38kts. Kinda obvious they missed the center again

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pressure looks to be up, 903mb.

[NDG]

Eye so small it probably missed it, lol.

URNT15 KWBC 072344
NOAA2 1014A MILTON HDOB 22 20241007
233500 2149N 09029W 7513 01678 9065 +239 +208 296053 084 /// /// 03
233530 2151N 09029W 7506 01661 9035 +245 +209 002032 038 /// /// 03
233600 2152N 09029W 7541 01681 9111 +213 +215 064071 098 /// /// 05
233630 2154N 09029W 7526 01866 9286 +192 +213 069120 122 /// /// 05
233700 2155N 09029W 7518 02031 9460 +182 +202 070124 127 /// /// 05
233730 2157N 09029W 7545 02103 9579 +178 +187 075110 121 /// /// 05
233800 2159N 09030W 7521 02203 9659 +174 +182 076092 102 /// /// 05
233830 2201N 09030W 7512 02258 9716 +165 +181 075086 091 /// /// 05
233900 2202N 09031W 7512 02292 9765 +152 +175 073087 092 /// /// 05
233930 2204N 09031W 7513 02321 9807 +144 +170 074079 082 /// /// 05
234000 2206N 09032W 7508 02353 9821 +159 +163 076074 079 /// /// 05
234030 2208N 09032W 7512 02366 9847 +152 +174 074072 078 /// /// 05
234100 2210N 09033W 7527 02364 9869 +148 +168 070069 072 /// /// 05
234130 2212N 09033W 7511 02396 9885 +148 +160 072065 067 /// /// 05
234200 2214N 09034W 7519 02401 9900 +146 +163 068061 062 /// /// 05
234230 2216N 09034W 7512 02412 9909 +144 +162 075058 060 /// /// 05
234300 2217N 09035W 7512 02420 9916 +144 +167 069057 060 /// /// 05
234330 2219N 09035W 7513 02418 9924 +140 +163 066055 057 /// /// 05
234400 2221N 09036W 7512 02428 9933 +139 +165 062055 059 /// /// 05
234430 2223N 09036W 7513 02432 9933 +143 +161 059053 054 /// /// 05

[NDG]

Eye so small it probably missed it, lol.

URNT15 KWBC 072344
NOAA2 1014A MILTON HDOB 22 20241007
233500 2149N 09029W 7513 01678 9065 +239 +208 296053 084 /// /// 03
233530 2151N 09029W 7506 01661 9035 +245 +209 002032 038 /// /// 03
233600 2152N 09029W 7541 01681 9111 +213 +215 064071 098 /// /// 05
233630 2154N 09029W 7526 01866 9286 +192 +213 069120 122 /// /// 05
233700 2155N 09029W 7518 02031 9460 +182 +202 070124 127 /// /// 05
233730 2157N 09029W 7545 02103 9579 +178 +187 075110 121 /// /// 05
233800 2159N 09030W 7521 02203 9659 +174 +182 076092 102 /// /// 05
233830 2201N 09030W 7512 02258 9716 +165 +181 075086 091 /// /// 05
233900 2202N 09031W 7512 02292 9765 +152 +175 073087 092 /// /// 05
233930 2204N 09031W 7513 02321 9807 +144 +170 074079 082 /// /// 05
234000 2206N 09032W 7508 02353 9821 +159 +163 076074 079 /// /// 05
234030 2208N 09032W 7512 02366 9847 +152 +174 074072 078 /// /// 05
234100 2210N 09033W 7527 02364 9869 +148 +168 070069 072 /// /// 05
234130 2212N 09033W 7511 02396 9885 +148 +160 072065 067 /// /// 05
234200 2214N 09034W 7519 02401 9900 +146 +163 068061 062 /// /// 05
234230 2216N 09034W 7512 02412 9909 +144 +162 075058 060 /// /// 05
234300 2217N 09035W 7512 02420 9916 +144 +167 069057 060 /// /// 05
234330 2219N 09035W 7513 02418 9924 +140 +163 066055 057 /// /// 05
234400 2221N 09036W 7512 02428 9933 +139 +165 062055 059 /// /// 05
234430 2223N 09036W 7513 02432 9933 +143 +161 059053 054 /// /// 05

[dukeblue219]

Extrap 903.5mb. Weakening fast.

Please don't do that.

[b0tzy29]

903.5

[FrontRunner]

Unfortunately it looks like the AF plane is only reporting pressure intermittently.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Extrap 903.5mb. Weakening fast.

They missed the center.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Extrap 903.5mb. Weakening fast.

I thought they missed the center, but it is so tiny there are only 2 wind barbs that are not over 60kts

[NDG]

Extrap 903.5mb. Weakening fast.

[wx98]

Looks like they missed the peak earlier this afternoon.

[KWT]

903.5mb with 38kts. Kinda obvious they missed the center again

Supports the 899mbs again, the true center of the low is going to be utterly tiny with such a small eye. Needle in a haystack material really.

[Exalt]

Even if it was weakening, probs would just hint more at an EWRC more than anything else. Wouldn't speak much to further development.

[zzzh]

Extrap 903.5mb. Weakening fast.

I thought they missed the center, but it is so tiny there are only 2 wind barbs that are not over 60kts

No. Last pass had 898mb extrap with 60kt FL, so that's about 5mb/h weakening rate, which is fast.

[ScottNAtlanta]

903.5mb with 38kts. Kinda obvious they missed the center again

Supports the 899mbs again, the true center of the low is going to be utterly tiny with such a small eye. Needle in a haystack material really.

Wilma had a 2.3nm eye. That is the smallest eye I ever saw on a hurricane.

[Hurrilurker]

Yeah, I image it's quite a challenge to hit the center in a sub-5 nm eye. Remember the plane is facing extreme buffeting coming into the eye, the whole thing is moving, and they're flying at a higher altitude than normal because of the intensity, meaning the drop takes longer and there's more error on the release point. I'm not an expert on this but it makes sense to me.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks as though we are starting a ewrc, might cause temporary weakening but once finished a restrengthening should happen until it hits the shear, but as always shear isn’t a guarantee or even shear as strong as advertised so as always if you’re in Florida prepare for one category higher than the forecast says

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s conceivable they missed, but with the northern quadrant being so comparatively weak, it probably is past peak. We’ll see what the drop confirms. That said, if it really has weakened at that rate, just what the hell was its peak this afternoon??