ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Zonacane]

Another big intrusion of dry air

[johngaltfla]

Loop Current boosting vs Gulf Syndrome...

We've seen too much of that the last 20 years, haven't we?

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Overall Tampa is again dodging the bullet. In this case maybe even a cannon. Iam just hoping water doesn’t enter homes. Difference of 10 miles eastern right now could be difference of garage getting lapped vs having inches of water throughout the floors. Also hoping we don’t get power outages. Irma left us without power for a week and it really sucked.

TampaChads...we just cant stop winning. We need to start a pool when Tampa's year will be. By the time it actually comes imagine the winnings

For now the streak continues but we will still have some ill effects here.

[MetroMike]

NHC will not change end track as Tallahasse (bad spelling) does not need more apathy with its residents. For now the NHC will have to hope for that bend track on the way north.

[hipshot]

Is the grey area around the eye dry air being sucked in?

Nope, I'm pretty sure those are about -80 C cloud tops

[NDG]

12z GFS also shifted slightly east, to the Taylor/Dixie County line.

Like I've said all week, Cedar Key to Steinhatchee area. Which is what the ICON model called for. I think the recent motion indicates that might just validate.

GFS also has the strongest winds over Dixie County and parts of Levy County. Storm surge in those areas is going to be huge.

[GCANE]

50 mm/hr rain rate.
Firing on all cylinders

[Travorum]

Helene was almost impressively asymmetrical this morning, at flight level TDR had a 98kt peak and hurricane force winds extending over 200km to the east, but not even hurricane force flight level winds in parts of the west. I'm sure that is changing right about now as convection is starting to wrap around though.

[cycloneye]

Pressure is steady at 962 mbs and has been there for a while.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Overall Tampa is again dodging the bullet. In this case maybe even a cannon. Iam just hoping water doesn’t enter homes. Difference of 10 miles eastern right now could be difference of garage getting lapped vs having inches of water throughout the floors. Also hoping we don’t get power outages. Irma left us without power for a week and it really sucked.

TampaChads...we just cant stop winning. We need to start a pool when Tampa's year will be. By the time it actually comes imagine the winnings

For now the streak continues but we will still have some ill effects here.

I always hate it when I see posts like this... not that we're not grateful for the storm missing Tampa again, but really tempting fate for the next storm.

[Woofde]

On Satellite it's working along, but pressure still not dropping very fast. Need to see pressure drops on recon if this is gonna RI.

[LandoWill]

Wobble? Seems like it's still trending east of their current track, which they adjusted the trajectory at 11am to be more east as it was... they keep saying it's going north east, but it keeps trending more east than i feel they are saying, perhaps i just hope I'm wrong hah

[syfr]

Tampa will never get another hurricane again.

" This will not cause your taxes to go up ...."

[FLLurker32]

NHC will not change end track as Tallahasse (bad spelling) does not need more apathy with its residents. For now the NHC will have to hope for that bend track on the way north.

Exactly. I made a similar comment a few pages back. The NHC exists to provide notice and reduce risks to life and property. It is their social responsibility to err on the side of caution toward the scenario that could cause the most loss of life and property. Taylor county is still in the cone and should be prepared for the eye to possibly track on the most eastern side of the cone.

[CronkPSU]

Tampa will never get another hurricane again.

" This will not cause your taxes to go up ...."

we know citizens and other insurance companies already figured out how to raise their rates sky high in florida again from this no matter where it hits

[hipshot]

Overall Tampa is again dodging the bullet. In this case maybe even a cannon. Iam just hoping water doesn’t enter homes. Difference of 10 miles eastern right now could be difference of garage getting lapped vs having inches of water throughout the floors. Also hoping we don’t get power outages. Irma left us without power for a week and it really sucked.

TampaChads...we just cant stop winning. We need to start a pool when Tampa's year will be. By the time it actually comes imagine the winnings

For now the streak continues but we will still have some ill effects here.

I always hate it when I see posts like this... not that we're not grateful for the storm missing Tampa again, but really tempting fate for the next storm.

Yep, I think it's a little early to be taking a victory lap, if this thing slides just a little more east before the north turn, Tampa and
surrounding areas could really get clobbered.

[Travorum]

Overall Tampa is again dodging the bullet. In this case maybe even a cannon. Iam just hoping water doesn’t enter homes. Difference of 10 miles eastern right now could be difference of garage getting lapped vs having inches of water throughout the floors. Also hoping we don’t get power outages. Irma left us without power for a week and it really sucked.

TampaChads...we just cant stop winning. We need to start a pool when Tampa's year will be. By the time it actually comes imagine the winnings

For now the streak continues but we will still have some ill effects here.

I always hate it when I see posts like this... not that we're not grateful for the storm missing Tampa again, but really tempting fate for the next storm.

Hard agree on this, especially when we're looking at another potential gulf storm as early as next weekend. And even with Helene, I don't think the people in Tampa getting up to 8 feet of surge are going to feel like they're "winning."

[ElectricStorm]

I'm just not seeing anything that supports 90kts outside of FL winds. SFMR and drops still suggest these winds are not mixing to the surface very well. Think it could be closer to 80-85kts, pressure 962mb. Intensification should be halted unless it can mix out that dry slot and with less than 12 hours to landfall it doesn't have much time

[MississippiWx]

For the wobble watchers:

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1839324439194063272

[LandoWill]

Found the website.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... &llval=OFF