ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

Tail Doppler radar shows concentric eyewalls during the latest mission. If the hurricane models are to be believed, then Milton should undergo a relatively quick eyewall meld/ewrc before having a secondary peak near the loop current tomorrow morning/afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/6KrzVNa.png

That is a huge new eyewall

Oh. Personally I thought the bands closest to the eye were gonna become the new eyewall, since hurricane models hinted at that. But I could be wrong.

[johngaltfla]

Not reassuring...

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/BrokerWx/status/1843439691871465605

[Kingarabian]

I wonder if it was stronger when recon left. Eye temp was positive and CDG shades were increasing.

[cheezyWXguy]

Tail Doppler radar shows concentric eyewalls during the latest mission. If the hurricane models are to be believed, then Milton should undergo a relatively quick eyewall meld/ewrc before having a secondary peak near the loop current tomorrow morning/afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/6KrzVNa.png

That is a huge new eyewall

It looks huge, but that’s because the current eye is so small. Rough guess is it’s currently about 30mi wide. Wouldn’t be surprised if it contracted to less than 20 when it takes over.

[Keldeo1997]

VDM has a 26nm outer EW

[ScottNAtlanta]

drop was 904mb with 32kt winds

[ConvergenceZone]

Tail Doppler radar shows concentric eyewalls during the latest mission. If the hurricane models are to be believed, then Milton should undergo a relatively quick eyewall meld/ewrc before having a secondary peak near the loop current tomorrow morning/afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/6KrzVNa.png

That is a huge new eyewall

Remember it's early stages and will contract itself further yet. Probably not going to be too big once fully formed though.

Agreed, yea the size will increase somewhat, but nowhere near the size of what Helene was. That was an absolute monster in size.

[WaveBreaking]

 https://x.com/BrokerWx/status/1843439691871465605

I partly agree with him on fast ewrcs bc hurricane w pinhole eyes can also sometimes take forever to complete an ewrc if the new eye is too big (i.e., Idalia and Jova).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very real chance Milton has a secondary peak near or even beyond its current intensity tomorrow. The HAFS shows this getting as high as in the 940s before strengthening back again.

Seeing a sub-900 hurricane officially, operationally in the Atlantic just feels surreal. It's been nearly 19 years since it has happened.

[Woofde]

It is probably going to weaken some, not due to shear or dry air, but colder water. The area near the Yucatan isn't known for being warm and deep, very likely upwelling will keep it from the 800's till back into deeper warmer water. The hurricane models show this as well.

If it was to stall yes upwelling would cause it to weaken but as long as it keeps moving it will continue moving over warm waters.

Under normal cases I would agree, but we are talking about a storm that is going to be restricted by the warmth and is working at the theoretical limits of the SST's. Milton's leaving an area supportive of sub 900, and moving into and area only supportive of 910's.

The MPI map shows this clearly, once it leaves the Yucatan area theres an area for it to go sub 900 again.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

 https://x.com/BrokerWx/status/1843439691871465605

Honestly, there is not much room for it to strengthen any farther. We are pretty close to what the physics will allow.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

VDM confirms EWRC underway.

Code: Select all

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 906mb (26.76 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 38kts (From the ENE at 44mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the south
G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)

[weeniepatrol]

D. 906 mb
E. 075 deg 38 kt
F. OPEN S
G. CO5-24

[aspen]

drop was 904mb with 32kt winds

Extrapolating this weakening trend suggests it peaked in the low 890s between flights, so it likely beat Rita as the strongest GOM storm.

[Hurricane2022]

D. 906 mb
E. 075 deg 38 kt
F. OPEN S
G. CO5-24

"906 mb"
"OPEN S"

???

[HurricaneBelle]

I'm surprised with the strength of Storm and the height of the storm search that Pinellas County only has evacuations for A, B, and C....

Probably because they don't want everyone evacuating at once. They'll probably expand to D & E tomorrow.

[WaveBreaking]

Looks absolutely ridiculous on IR

[Woofde]

drop was 904mb with 32kt winds

Extrapolating this weakening trend suggests it peaked in the low 890s between flights, so it likely beat Rita as the strongest GOM storm.

It's gonna be another case of never knowing the true high intensity, especially unfortunate for a storm this strong.

[caneman]

An amazing lesson in physics.

And that means what? A Cat 3 or 4 is still devastating and Cat 5 surge. Would be extremely devastating when coupled with what just happened with Helene and still near zero recovery

It means if your expectation is that all of Pinellas County is going to see 125mp+ winds then you are misinformed. There will be pockets and a few minutes of some extreme winds as the storm passes but yes the surge is THE biggest issue, It is what will make this storm historic not the winds. The winds will no doubt do severe damage to an area of 20-25 miles on landfall but the rest will see 80-90mph winds gusting maybe just over 100mph. They are doing their best to clean up what they can from Helene. I've been through 4 hurricanes myself and I know what it feels like, maybe you have to but unless you go hunting for the eye, only a small area will see the strongest winds. The shear is also going to take most of the rain and a decent amount of wind out of the southern portion of the storm, Unfortunately for me the area I am going to be riding it out will likely see pretty strong winds but it won't see any surge. Remember, Run from the water, Hide from the wind.

I'm well versed in hurricanes been doing them since 1976 and don't need an education.. Even 100 mph winds coupled with 10 or 12 foot of storm surge would be far too much for an area with near zero recovery. Further, FEMA isn't doing its best, they've been a complete failure. Desantis had to take over and cut locks at city and county dumps to do 24/7 pickups. I live here, i know what's going and I have projectiles piled up all around me.