ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

12:30pm Video on Helene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQY6JmfLGVU

[Nuno]

From my good friend Pro Met T Scott:

Your boys are TOO FAR WEST with their landfall, Deni.
T. Scott believes this will PASS EAST of Apalachee Bay; NOT WEST.

2 Vort. Lobes circulating the base of the upper low/trough 1st heads SE from coastal MS/AL at 7 AM this morning. This should result in the first turn N-NE. 2nd vort. lobe comes this afternoon, emanating EASTward from Western AL/Cstl AL/SE LA bootip. diving Eastward.

The natural gravitation towards STEEP DEEPENING and strengthening will also tend to reflect a right-ward CURVE to the Northeast.

("Where abouts, T. Scott?") Central Taylor County coastline, near Dekle Beach, FL.

Only thing I do agree upon, with your favorite NHC boyz, is the STAUNCH bold prediction of a Cat. 4 135 mph hurricane.
AND that is a BOLD, GUTSY prediction BECAUSE IF you examine the ATCF 00Z suite, 9/26, NONE of them go above 115 mph, except an old, deprecated statistical model DRCL.

Sorry, a pro met talks like that?

I think the biggest issue is the curve fit between two forecast points of a fast moving storm. The NHC tries to explain this, but I feel like the method is pretty outdated at this point. A good pro met would be able to explain this without any Z's IMO. Perhaps this was meant to be a private conversation?

I don't see anything wrong in how he talks??

[chaser1]

Not sure if anyone mentioned how wide Helene's eye currently is, crazy!

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles)

Hoaaa?!! Damn thats big

[Kingarabian]

Per Dvorak, its satellite appearance could support cat 3 status very soon.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

I always hate it when I see posts like this... not that we're not grateful for the storm missing Tampa again, but really tempting fate for the next storm.

Hard agree on this, especially when we're looking at another potential gulf storm as early as next weekend. And even with Helene, I don't think the people in Tampa getting up to 8 feet of surge are going to feel like they're "winning."

Yeah it really builds complacency, same mentality New Orleans had about their levees and storms missing them.

No it doesnt. Our time will come when it comes. Everyone here took Ian serouisly before it cut hard right.

[TheBigO]

I hope the eastward movement is just a wobble and not an indication of a different trend, or my preps here in Orlando are going to come up a bit short.

[FLpanhandle91]

Fresh -80s in the eastern and northwestern eyewall. Cat 4 is very much on the table in my opinion. Best she's looked by a mile right now.

[Nimbus]

Upper level steering low to the north is starting to back off to the west.
That is probably why the forecast track starts curving west near landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[NDG]

102 knot flight level wind in the SE eyewall is very impressive.

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the Radar out of Tampa, it looks like the eastward movement might have stopped for the time being. Saved 48-minute loop.

[chaser1]

Eye should clear out in the next couple of hours. Expect continued intensification with possible RI if deep convection can finally wrap. Hurricane has been plagued by dry air intrusion lets hope that continues. I think the probability has diminished but is still possible. Should landfall as strong Cat-3 not the Cat-4 I was fearing. Surge will be major issue. Helene will be the Nature's Coast's Katrina. Hwy 98 will likely be washed away in areas. Small towns along the coast obliterated.....another Mexico Beach......MGC

I don't know the particular heights and varying distance of 98 to the coastline, but I am familiar with that part of 98 where it veers south toward Medart and north towards Tally. Do you think 98 will be under water just east of there between St. Marks and there (between St. Marks & where 319 intersects 98 to Tally)?

[ElectricStorm]

That's really the first time I've seen it mix out a dry slot that quickly and prevent it from penetrating the core thanks to that huge tower that just went up. Now we'll see if we start getting some bigger pressure falls

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hard agree on this, especially when we're looking at another potential gulf storm as early as next weekend. And even with Helene, I don't think the people in Tampa getting up to 8 feet of surge are going to feel like they're "winning."

Yeah it really builds complacency, same mentality New Orleans had about their levees and storms missing them.

No it doesnt. Our time will come when it comes. Everyone here took Ian serouisly before it cut hard right.

I lived in Hillsborough county during Ian and that was not what I saw. The fact we see posts on here saying "Tampa will never get a hurricane again" is proof enough.

[aspen]

Now there are two VHTs popping/rotating around the eye, one in the W quad and one in the N/NW.

[Travorum]

958.3mb extrap so far this pass.

[FLpanhandle91]

[InfernoFlameCat]

958.3mb extrap so far this pass.

She has resumed strengthening. And it appears at a rather quick pace as well.

[chaser1]

Looking at the Radar out of Tampa, it looks like the eastward movement might have stopped for the time being. Saved 48-minute loop.

https://tropicwatch.info/heleneradar092620241700z.gif

I'm just amazed at the degree of sinking air around this storm. Far drier conditions then the extent of east semicircle developing rain bands (over land or water) that I would have expected thus far. Fair amount more moisture well southeast of the core with heavy precip still over Cuba.

[cycloneye]

Drops from that 962 mbs that was for a while.

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 958.3mb at 17:06z

[Hugo1989]

I’m in South Tampa by the water and It’s completed dry in here. Even though gusts are consistently and pretty strong 35-45 mph.