ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

Not sure if anyone mentioned how wide Helene's eye currently is, crazy!

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles)

Hoaaa?!! Damn thats big

That about guarantee’s Tallahassee gets at least part of the eye even if landfall is nudged east!

[SoupBone]

Looking at the Radar out of Tampa, it looks like the eastward movement might have stopped for the time being. Saved 48-minute loop.

https://tropicwatch.info/heleneradar092620241700z.gif

I believe that 2pm was the models projected turn more to the north.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Yeah it really builds complacency, same mentality New Orleans had about their levees and storms missing them.

No it doesnt. Our time will come when it comes. Everyone here took Ian serouisly before it cut hard right.

I lived in Hillsborough county during Ian and that was not what I saw. The fact we see posts on here saying "Tampa will never get a hurricane again" is proof enough.

Anecdotal, i lived in pasco and we boarded up. Also, this place is a small corner of the internet and the posts here are not representitive of 1/10000000 of the population

[hipshot]

Upper level steering low to the north is starting to back off to the west.
That is probably why the forecast track starts curving west near landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

What's the chances that this big sucker is the cause of the trough backing off to the west?

[cycloneye]

Good tweet fron NHC.

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1839352781817426138

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

I’m in South Tampa by the water and It’s completed dry in here. Even though gusts are consistently and pretty strong 35-45 mph.

Getting a nice wind in Hudson, I clocked a 51mph gust on the wind station. Not a drop of rain yet and the sun is unironically out

[PavelGaborik10]

Beyond shocked and pleased regarding the current intensity.

I truly thought this would make a run for category 5, another 2024 special.

[Frank P]

HTs firing up the system

[Blown Away]

Good tweet fron NHC.

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1839352781817426138

Sure!

[toad strangler]

I’m in South Tampa by the water and It’s completed dry in here. Even though gusts are consistently and pretty strong 35-45 mph.

Getting a nice wind in Hudson, I clocked a 51mph gust on the wind station. Not a drop of rain yet and the sun is unironically out

This thing is DRY AS A BONE ATM away from the core to the east.

[LandoWill]

NHC reading the comments - they had to put a tweet out lol

[chaser1]

Not sure if anyone mentioned how wide Helene's eye currently is, crazy!

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles)

Hoaaa?!! Damn thats big

That about guarantee’s Tallahassee gets at least part of the eye even if landfall is nudged east!

Yep, furthermore with the new hot tower that just popped east of center the eye has now taken a jog back to the north (or even W of north). For the moment, that appears to have sealed the deal and better insulated the eye. The other thing is one can now easily see the longer period smoothed out NHC track pretty much dead on and still aiming toward Alligator Point to St Marks.

[cycloneye]

Dropsonde is 960 mbs at eye.

[ElectricStorm]

Drop has 960mb so starting to see some pressure falls again

[NDG]

Saved 2 hr loop, continues to pick up speed.

[ConvergenceZone]

I miss seeing Mike Seidel on the weather channel out there in the field. But I'll always love Cantore. Cantore is the only reason I subscribe to the weather channel during hurricane season. His love and passion for the weather is so much apparent in his reporting than others.

This is going to be an absolute monster. I have a feeling this catastrophic hurricane will be on the news for many years to come.

[Travorum]

Eyewall reported closed again, 40nm.

[ConvergenceZone]

Beyond shocked and pleased regarding the current intensity.

I truly thought this would make a run for category 5, another 2024 special.

Don't let the current intensity fool you. Per the national hurricane center: "Significant intensification is expected until Helene reaches the
coast since the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions will remain conducive."

Nobody expected a cat 5, but I still think a minimal cat 4 is still possible, at the very least we should get a high cat 3 based on what the NHC is saying.

[NDG]

Some of the highest wind gusts so far, still offshore winds.

Downtown St Pete airport gusting to 47 mph.
Sarasota/Bradenton airport gusting to 48 mph.

[chaser1]

Anyone care to take a shot at min pressure for the 5:00PM update/discussion? I'll go with 951 mb