ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

The size of this windfield is so insanely small, the Yucatán might not even see hurricane force winds!

Yea, they mentioned that on the weather channel earlier that only a very small portion of Milton even has hurricane force winds. Such a very small wind field with this storm, which of course is good. Whether it increases that much in size remains to be seen. But I think we can expect at least a small increase in size.

[Steve]

I side with caneman.

My son sent me a video he took yesterday while on a bike ride of furniture etc. piled up on the street outside of every home on the barrier island by Indian Rocks Beach/Madeira Beach. All of these items will become airborne missiles in even the winds you conceded. FEMA has been counter-productive at best. This is not a political statement. It is fact.

Just literally saw a video of Jim Cantore next to a waist high pile of debris and demo trash.

Right. A storm from a couple weeks ago. It takes months and months.

[Category5Kaiju]

Instead of being productive the last 4 hours I've refreshed this forum like an addict waiting for this airplane to arrive. Anyone else feel the same way?

No.

I've spent the past 2 hours trying to read each post on each page and KEEP UP! The pages are adding up faster than I can read them all!

I went to eat dinner and put my clothes in the wash. When I got back there were 15-16 more pages.

I have no actual intention of staying up all night, but I know I will feel a need to keep checking this thread in a futile effort to not get too far behind. Because I MUST read it all!

At one point I actually thought of saying, "uhhh, can you guys stop posting for a while so I can catch up?"

Here's a crash course on what just happened.

Milton became the first sub-900 mbar storm since Wilma. Everyone went *oh s**t*." It's starting an EWRC but is expected to complete that soon and potentially reintensify after paralleling the Yucatan.

The end.

[ElectricStorm]

909 extrap on the NOAA plane with 55kt winds so probably a little lower than that

[CrazyC83]

Since the eyewall was still closed at the first pass (and at its smallest), that is when I think the peak intensity was (160 kt / 897 mb). On the BT, I would time it at 2200Z, a non-synoptic point, and put the 00Z intensity at 150 kt / 902 mb. If the first pass had a concentric eyewall, the assumption could have been that it was stronger earlier.

What would you put the MSW estimate at for 22:00 z?

I'd go with 160 kt, thinking the maximum winds were not sampled (not in strongest quad), lack of SFMR data and based on the P-W relationship which was quite accurate earlier.

[CrazyC83]

909 extrap on the NOAA plane with 55kt winds so probably a little lower than that

That would be 904 mb if a dropsonde confirms it.

[Hammy]

Since the eyewall was still closed at the first pass (and at its smallest), that is when I think the peak intensity was (160 kt / 897 mb). On the BT, I would time it at 2200Z, a non-synoptic point, and put the 00Z intensity at 150 kt / 902 mb. If the first pass had a concentric eyewall, the assumption could have been that it was stronger earlier.

Are you thinking it likely leveled off with the pressure and the plane got there just in time to catch the peak before ERC?

[jlauderdal]

It was Denis Phillips of our local ABC affiliate here in Tampa. I don’t have a link as I was watching it on TV on his Denis Phillips live segment live program.

I saw it and thought it was odd and very irresponisble. His power outage map is awful too. He really downplayed helene effects prior to the storm.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

AF plane about to make another center pass

[jlauderdal]

Apologies if this is off-topic, but I think it's quasi-relevant. From my understanding, the Earth was hit with a large solar flare (or is going to be imminently). Does science say anything about how that can affect the atmosphere and weather in general, and a hurricane like this in particular? Would it be a strengthening factor or a weakening one? Thanks in advance.

Some theories that the ionosphere heating can cause slight strengthening. It is a small effect though.

It happened yesterday afternoon ahead of an uptick with intensity. GCANE posted links before it happened.

[CrazyC83]

Since the eyewall was still closed at the first pass (and at its smallest), that is when I think the peak intensity was (160 kt / 897 mb). On the BT, I would time it at 2200Z, a non-synoptic point, and put the 00Z intensity at 150 kt / 902 mb. If the first pass had a concentric eyewall, the assumption could have been that it was stronger earlier.

Are you thinking it likely leveled off with the pressure and the plane got there just in time to catch the peak before ERC?

Yes that is my thinking, it caught the peak.

[eastcoastFL]

I side with caneman.

My son sent me a video he took yesterday while on a bike ride of furniture etc. piled up on the street outside of every home on the barrier island by Indian Rocks Beach/Madeira Beach. All of these items will become airborne missiles in even the winds you conceded. FEMA has been counter-productive at best. This is not a political statement. It is fact.

Just literally saw a video of Jim Cantore next to a waist high pile of debris and demo trash.

Most towns are running 24/7 trying to get to all the debris before Milton arrives. Wouldn’t want Milton to think we’re slobs.

[caneman]

Just literally saw a video of Jim Cantore next to a waist high pile of debris and demo trash.

Right. A storm from a couple weeks ago. It takes months and months.

There are many more that are more than head high. Really worried about the missiles that will occur.

[Steve]

Apologies if this is off-topic, but I think it's quasi-relevant. From my understanding, the Earth was hit with a large solar flare (or is going to be imminently). Does science say anything about how that can affect the atmosphere and weather in general, and a hurricane like this in particular? Would it be a strengthening factor or a weakening one? Thanks in advance.

Some theories that the ionosphere heating can cause slight strengthening. It is a small effect though.

It happened yesterday afternoon ahead of an uptick with intensity. GCANE posted links before it happened.

He did the same thing today.

[caneman]

It was Denis Phillips of our local ABC affiliate here in Tampa. I don’t have a link as I was watching it on TV on his Denis Phillips live segment live program.

I saw it and thought it was odd and very irresponisble. His power outage map is awful too. He really downplayed helene effects prior to the storm.

Many like him but I believe he ALWAYS downplays too much.

[Texashawk]

Just literally saw a video of Jim Cantore next to a waist high pile of debris and demo trash.

Right. A storm from a couple weeks ago. It takes months and months.

FWIW, they're still clearing Beryl damage in the Houston area. It's a long process.

[eastcoastFL]

Just literally saw a video of Jim Cantore next to a waist high pile of debris and demo trash.

Right. A storm from a couple weeks ago. It takes months and months.

There are many more that are more than head high. Really worried about the missiles that will occur.

I remember the Same issue when Jeanne was coming just weeks after Frances. My pool enclosure was still mangled in the yard. Not much that can be done when millions of properties are damaged at once. It sucks.

[Steve]

Just literally saw a video of Jim Cantore next to a waist high pile of debris and demo trash.

Right. A storm from a couple weeks ago. It takes months and months.

There are many more that are more than head high. Really worried about the missiles that will occur.

I have first hand knowledge of this. My house was 125’ deep and my neighbor let me use his 125’. I had it 4’ wide and 4 feet tall along the curb. Twice and then some. When you have to throw everything out including walls and ceilings it piles up. You saw me say it was November. We had tropical storm conditions from Rita which luckily passed south. Trees and that kind of debris is first. Curbside comes when it comes. There aren’t magical a million claw trucks with drill type shredders to go around. Helene was like the other day.

[jlauderdal]

Some theories that the ionosphere heating can cause slight strengthening. It is a small effect though.

It happened yesterday afternoon ahead of an uptick with intensity. GCANE posted links before it happened.

He did the same thing today.

Yes, there was another event, its been very active.

[Steve]

Right. A storm from a couple weeks ago. It takes months and months.

There are many more that are more than head high. Really worried about the missiles that will occur.

I remember the Same issue when Jeanne was coming just weeks after Frances. My pool enclosure was still mangled in the yard. Not much that can be done when millions of properties are damaged at once. It sucks.

That’s all I’m saying. With NC damage to boot it’s not going to be a fast process. Missiles gonna be there.