ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

I've thought and said it before, and been wrong- but I truly feel like Helene is finally on the cusp of RI at this point. I think she''s capped by how much she can intensify by an asymmetric structure and limited remaining time over water, but I do think we'll see significant strengthening to a powerful category 3 prior to landfall.

Technically, it’s been RI’ing, since there’s been a 25kt wind increase in a 24hr period. One thing it’s gotta work out though is the asymmetry in windfield on the northwest side. This is probably the difference between a 3 and a 4 at landfall

[ChrisH-UK]

Helene with radar (Lowest Altitude) overlapped, radar looks pretty much aligned with the radar.

[gulf701]

The weather experts projections for rain is on track for 6 to 8 inch's as we were at 5.9 inch's and more coming.

[PavelGaborik10]

Beyond shocked and pleased regarding the current intensity.

I truly thought this would make a run for category 5, another 2024 special.

Don't let the current intensity fool you. Per the national hurricane center: "Significant intensification is expected until Helene reaches the
coast since the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions will remain conducive."

Nobody expected a cat 5, but I still think a minimal cat 4 is still possible, at the very least we should get a high cat 3 based on what the NHC is saying.

We've been hearing the same song and dance for 2 days regarding Helene undergoing RI.

As far as nobody thinking this had a chance at cat 5? Several days over the Carib, GOM going through an untouched loop current in a low shear environment in an incredibly favorable upper level environment, intensity models and NHC issuing one of, if not their most aggresive RI forecast in their history showcases just how absurd the potential ceiling for Helene was.

Fortunately the ol' girl struggeled tremendously at successfully building an inner core, had two eyewalls competing with each other which helped with dry air intrusion. Close interaction with the Yuc likely didn't help.

But could you imagine if this storm figured out it's structural issues 24 hours ago? Unquestionable this would be making a run at category 5 given the current environment, we've seen many storms do significantly more with significantly less than what we've seen with Helene thus far.

That said, I still expect a high end 3 at landfall with the possibility of a low end 4 as well, which speaks volumes to just how favorable her current environment truly is right now with just about 10 hours before landfall tonight.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's going to be nice to watch the weather channel's landfall footage later in the day for a change instead of the usual late at night or during the early morning hours when I'm in bed lol.

[FLLurker32]

Is it the fugiwhara like effect that’s sucking moisture up? The big bands of moisture have mostly disappeared.

[Travorum]

95kts/959mb at the 2pm update.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[ConvergenceZone]

Beyond shocked and pleased regarding the current intensity.

I truly thought this would make a run for category 5, another 2024 special.

Don't let the current intensity fool you. Per the national hurricane center: "Significant intensification is expected until Helene reaches the
coast since the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions will remain conducive."

Nobody expected a cat 5, but I still think a minimal cat 4 is still possible, at the very least we should get a high cat 3 based on what the NHC is saying.

We've been hearing the same song and dance for 2 days regarding Helene undergoing RI.

As far as nobody thinking this had a chance at cat 5? Several days over the Carib, GOM going throhgh an untouched loop current in a low shear environment in an incredibly favorable upper level environment, intensity models and NHC issuing one of, if not their most aggresive RI forecast in their history showcases just how absurd the potential ceiling for Helene was.

Fortunately the ol' girl struggeled tremendously at successfully building an inner core, had two eyewalls competing with each other which helped with dry air intrusion. Close interaction with the Yuc likely didn't help.

But could you imagine if this storm figured out it's structural issues 24 hours ago? Unquestionable this would be making a run at category 5 given the current environment, we've seen many storms do significantly more with significantly less than what we've seen with Helene thus far.

That said, I still expect a high end 3 at landfall with the possibility of a low end 4 as well, which speaks volumes to just how favorable her current environment truly is right now with just about 10 hours before landfall tonight.

And with the size of this storm a cat 4(if it gets there) might be just as bad as a cat 5. I agree with one of the mods was saying, nobody here predicated a cat 5. Not even the NHC predicted it. Everything has to come together perfectly for that to happen. If that wasn't the case, Cat 5s would be much more common. With some of the posts I'm seeing some sound disappointed that this won't be a cat 5, which is a bit disturbing to me.

[TomballEd]

Yes it is, collapsing convection leading into the core of the storm makes it very obvious. You can clearly see this on IR

Hell you can even see it on recon, with the drop in FL winds
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1609A-HELENE.png

How strong do you think Helene will be at landfall?

Not completely sure, it would be a Cat 5 if it had an entire day, I say high end Cat 2 or low end Cat 3, and the large wind field meaning damage beyond the eye as mentioned by NHC.

[Zarniwoop]

Tropical storm winds 345 miles from the center! Not Ike, but wow!

[tulum07]

Dry as a bone in Palm Beach County.

[longhorn2004]

Beyond shocked and pleased regarding the current intensity.

I truly thought this would make a run for category 5, another 2024 special.

Don't let the current intensity fool you. Per the national hurricane center: "Significant intensification is expected until Helene reaches the
coast since the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions will remain conducive."

Nobody expected a cat 5, but I still think a minimal cat 4 is still possible, at the very least we should get a high cat 3 based on what the NHC is saying.

We've been hearing the same song and dance for 2 days regarding Helene undergoing RI.

As far as nobody thinking this had a chance at cat 5? Several days over the Carib, GOM going through an untouched loop current in a low shear environment in an incredibly favorable upper level environment, intensity models and NHC issuing one of, if not their most aggresive RI forecast in their history showcases just how absurd the potential ceiling for Helene was.

Fortunately the ol' girl struggeled tremendously at successfully building an inner core, had two eyewalls competing with each other which helped with dry air intrusion. Close interaction with the Yuc likely didn't help.

But could you imagine if this storm figured out it's structural issues 24 hours ago? Unquestionable this would be making a run at category 5 given the current environment, we've seen many storms do significantly more with significantly less than what we've seen with Helene thus far.

That said, I still expect a high end 3 at landfall with the possibility of a low end 4 as well, which speaks volumes to just how favorable her current environment truly is right now with just about 10 hours before landfall tonight.

How does the Cold Front or Ridge as you all call it, affect the storm? Or is it effecting now, such as dry air?

[gatorcane]

Man, why can't she Wobble the other way? I hate wobble watching... but she's wobbling right last 3-4 frames!

Saved Loop
https://i.imgur.com/7RCabhT.gif

Definite east wobble there

[ConvergenceZone]

Hell you can even see it on recon, with the drop in FL winds
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1609A-HELENE.png

How strong do you think Helene will be at landfall?

Not completely sure, it would be a Cat 5 if it had an entire day, I say high end Cat 2 or low end Cat 3, and the large wind field meaning damage beyond the eye as mentioned by NHC.

It's already pretty much a high end cat 2. For it to landfall as that there would have to be zero strengthening between now and landfall, and even the NHC said that "significant strengthening is likely before landfall"

[tolakram]

With the size of the windfield I think flooding at landfall and soon after is going to surprise a lot of people. There's nowhere for the water to go. As far as Tampa goes, near landfall is when the winds start blowing into the bay, so I don't expect flooding until then, but I do not really know how to predict the slosh, or when it happens.

[Sailingtime]

Dry as a bone in Palm Beach County.

Same in central Florida, just went to lunch and it was sunny and quite pleasant. Things will change late in the afternoon however. That said, the right side of this storm is very dry and not what you would expect from a hurricane so close to the Florida coast.

[Pipelines182]

Man, why can't she Wobble the other way? I hate wobble watching... but she's wobbling right last 3-4 frames!

Saved Loop
https://i.imgur.com/7RCabhT.gif

The east wobbles are good, the more the better, that puts the core of strongest winds over almost no populated areas. If it goes west, Tallahassee gets the strong part of the core. The difference between getting the eastern eyewall vs the western eyewall is very very significant.

[PavelGaborik10]

Don't let the current intensity fool you. Per the national hurricane center: "Significant intensification is expected until Helene reaches the
coast since the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions will remain conducive."

Nobody expected a cat 5, but I still think a minimal cat 4 is still possible, at the very least we should get a high cat 3 based on what the NHC is saying.

We've been hearing the same song and dance for 2 days regarding Helene undergoing RI.

As far as nobody thinking this had a chance at cat 5? Several days over the Carib, GOM going throhgh an untouched loop current in a low shear environment in an incredibly favorable upper level environment, intensity models and NHC issuing one of, if not their most aggresive RI forecast in their history showcases just how absurd the potential ceiling for Helene was.

Fortunately the ol' girl struggeled tremendously at successfully building an inner core, had two eyewalls competing with each other which helped with dry air intrusion. Close interaction with the Yuc likely didn't help.

But could you imagine if this storm figured out it's structural issues 24 hours ago? Unquestionable this would be making a run at category 5 given the current environment, we've seen many storms do significantly more with significantly less than what we've seen with Helene thus far.

That said, I still expect a high end 3 at landfall with the possibility of a low end 4 as well, which speaks volumes to just how favorable her current environment truly is right now with just about 10 hours before landfall tonight.

And with the size of this storm a cat 4(if it gets there) might be just as bad as a cat 5. I agree with one of the mods was saying, nobody here predicated a cat 5. Not even the NHC predicted it. Everything has to come together perfectly for that to happen. If that wasn't the case, Cat 5s would be much more common. With some of the posts I'm seeing some sound disappointed that this won't be a cat 5, which is a bit disturbing to me.

I mean that's just objectively false, we had multiple posts from multiple posters talking about a potential category 5, hell we had some posts talking about it just last night.

As far as the NHC forecst? No, they predicted a category 4 in their most aggressive forecast in history while admitting it was a difficult intensity forecast. That doesn't mean much, what were the first few intensity forecasts for Beryl? One could argue Helene is in a better environment right now than Beryl ever was, the only thing that was stopping Helene from blowing up was it's own struggles building a solid core which was allowing it to ingest small amounts of dry air repeatedly.

[ElectricStorm]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1839357344716832866

[WaveBreaking]

Some loops from earlier today: