ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cyclenall]

AVN Loop for Old Time's Sake:

https://elixi.re/i/ixy3o.gif

Black ring encircled! Sub-900mb club

OMG! Where on earth (or the Internet) did you find this?! I've driven myself batty trying to locate these old-school GOES floater IR products (AVN, RBTOP, etc) ever since the links disappeared from the NOAA site (although, the TT IR products have grown on me) without success. I believe this is the page I used to find them on but now it seems to only have them for the Himawari-8 satellite which only covers the WPAC.

If you can point me to a link where these still can be found...

I just found them during Helene, I thought they were gone a few years ago and only cyclonicwx.com had a repo of AVN and a few others! There are multiple "versions" which is a tad confusing one is modern the other old:

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters-old.html

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floate ... oater.html

The older one I just found during a brave search but re-searching doesn't show it. The link is on my other machine.

[cheezyWXguy]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3RwSg3s5/48571694.gif [/url]

Little wobble to the SE

The eye is going to start wobbling more erratically as it loses ground to the outer eyewall and begins to revolve around inside it

[La Sirena]

This is absolutely true!

I never would have believed I was someone who would "suffer" from PTSD, but I guarantee you, I do, ever since Ian.

I went through Charley and wasn't fazed, but Ian did me in!

We are MOVING just as soon as we can sell this property (already bought a place in Arizona - LAND LOCKED STATE!!! No hurricanes). Unfortunately, hurricanes keep popping up and making it impossible for us to get O-U-T.

My wife is the same exact way. We didn't lose everything in Ian but we lost enough for it to give her PTSD. We were also in the eye wall for 8 hours since it skirted right by us as it came through PC and by NP. We've been planning on moving to the N. GA mountains next spring. Hopefully we will be able to sell in the next 6 months. That is if anyone still wants to live in FL.

I'm hoping my house withstands this storm, which I can use as a selling point to those who think this is a wonderful place to live!

Really, it IS! Except when hurricanes threaten. I guess you pick your poison, eh?

We sold our home in Big Pine Key a month before Irma hit. Thought we dodged a bullet. Moved to southeast Alabama and Michael hit us as a Cat 3 living 86 miles inland. Then we moved back to my hometown of Hampton, Tn. We just got hit with catastrophic flooding from Helene. I had to be evacuated from our home it all happened so fast. I just feel like weather happens everywhere. No one in southern Appalachia ever thought this could happen to us. Not from a hurricane.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

With Milton's ERC, some guidance showed it regaining some afterwards which leads me to the question of when was the last time a hurricane in the ATL went through one and became even stronger than before? I can't think of too many examples recently despite reading in general long ago that after ERCs hurricanes can peak.

Too many examples to count. I recall Ian having one and then going nuclear. Helene had a few. Irma as well.

[longhorn2004]

THIS! I am in no way downplaying it but it will weaken a decent amount before landfall, that won't stop the storm surge but it WILL NOT hit as a cat 5! Likely a 3 maybe a low end 4.

An amazing lesson in physics.

And that means what? A Cat 3 or 4 is still devastating and Cat 5 surge. Would be extremely devastating when coupled with what just happened with Helene and still near zero recovery

I was talking about the shear and Jetstream Mr. .Milton is about to meet.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty apparent now Milton is undergoing an EWRC. If successful, and right now I don’t see a reason why not, I’m afraid this means Milton has a chance to make another run below 900 as the storm traverses the loop current tomorrow. The storm will be larger and the surge building into the Florida coast will be massive.

Indeed, the HAFS-B has Milton a similar intensity as to present tomorrow night.

[Exalt]

An amazing lesson in physics.

And that means what? A Cat 3 or 4 is still devastating and Cat 5 surge. Would be extremely devastating when coupled with what just happened with Helene and still near zero recovery

I was talking about the shear and Jetstream Mr. .Milton is about to meet.

He might not though, which is the thing. Talking in absolutes like that will often leave you with an aboutface.

[sponger]

Do you think is showing some weakness since it interacting with the Mayan Coast?

The mayan what?

As a History teacher, I like it, alot....

[Javlin]

An amazing lesson in physics.

And that means what? A Cat 3 or 4 is still devastating and Cat 5 surge. Would be extremely devastating when coupled with what just happened with Helene and still near zero recovery

I was talking about the shear and Jetstream Mr. .Milton is about to meet.

Remember to that when a storm is of this strength and when it expands after the EWR can make their environment .

[cheezyWXguy]

EWRC is happening fast it seems. The same quadrant (SW) that recon found 160kt FL winds and barely a second max in an hour ago just barely produced 120kt FL winds and a second max of almost the same strength.

[abajan]

Welp, there ya go. 897 mbar.

Now ranked #5 in the basin

https://i.imgur.com/w7lMt5j.jpeg

Gilbert's is the easiest to remember because it's all eights: 888 in '88.

[hipshot]

Looks like Milton will be going through some 40-45 knot wind shear prior to landfall. Would be interesting to see some data of past storms having to go through this magnitude of shear and what the minimum and maximum effects on the storms were.

It was my understanding that the shear was from the west so I'm not sure what the overall affect will be.

[eastcoastFL]

70mm rain rate now. That continues to increase today

[Exalt]

Looks like Milton will be going through some 40-45 knot wind shear prior to landfall. Would be interesting to see some data of past storms having to go through this magnitude of shear and what the minimum and maximum effects on the storms were.

It was my understanding that the shear was from the west so I'm not sure what the overall affect will be.

Wouldn't it have less of an effect since it's in the same direction? If anything it would effect traveling speed, barreling Milton faster to FL no?

[eastcoastFL]

Currently Milton is heading into a low shear environment. He appears to be safe for next 12 hours. Who knows for sure what’s beyond that.

[Steve]

Looks like Milton will be going through some 40-45 knot wind shear prior to landfall. Would be interesting to see some data of past storms having to go through this magnitude of shear and what the minimum and maximum effects on the storms were.

It was my understanding that the shear was from the west so I'm not sure what the overall affect will be.

Wouldn't it have less of an effect since it's in the same direction? If anything it would effect traveling speed, barreling Milton faster to FL no?

It’s got to be upper level. Here in the trough zone it’s still 83 and not windy.

[sponger]

With that shear to the North it is going to be a completely lopsided storm with all of the convection well to the East of it. I hope it keeps the rain totals down because it has been raining for two days in Saint Augustine and we cannot handle 10 plus inches. I assume the forecast takes that into account.

[Sciencerocks]

With that shear to the North it is going to be a completely lopsided storm with all of the convection well to the East of it. I hope it keeps the rain totals down because it has been raining for two days in Saint Augustine and we cannot handle 10 plus inches. I assume the forecast takes that into account.

I hope for florida's sake that the shear gets it good as some of the hurricane models (hafs)shown yesterday. We really don't need this right now.

[floridasun]

fort myers need ready their ready under hurricane warring in case dont by plan move close sw florida this hurr sometime dont go by plan