ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

With that shear to the North it is going to be a completely lopsided storm with all of the convection well to the East of it. I hope it keeps the rain totals down because it has been raining for two days in Saint Augustine and we cannot handle 10 plus inches. I assume the forecast takes that into account.

Heaviest qpf will be weighted on the north side. St Augustine is going to get hammered I do believe.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MILTON MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 89.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES

[SpaceCowboy]

Amen to that sister. Laura did me in, I think; if not her, Delta a few weeks later. And I don't care who you are, once you've lived it--sifting through your soaked personal items, picking up your photo albums from your neighbors' yards, watching your bedroom ceiling come crashing down on the sentimental parts of your life, among others--hurricane PTSD is real and extremely painful.

This is absolutely true!

I never would have believed I was someone who would "suffer" from PTSD, but I guarantee you, I do, ever since Ian.

I went through Charley and wasn't fazed, but Ian did me in!

We are MOVING just as soon as we can sell this property (already bought a place in Arizona - LAND LOCKED STATE!!! No hurricanes). Unfortunately, hurricanes keep popping up and making it impossible for us to get O-U-T.

Same here...Thought I wasn't the PTSD type until I woke up every night in the hurricane calling for my mother who died during the height of Ian...Ground hog day that went on for months...Still does...The mind does weird stuff...

The PTSD from hurricanes/tropical events is REAL. Lost my family home(s) [plural because we our mainland home took the worst of it, but our bar/beach house was also severely flooded] when I was in my late teens to Sandy. You’d think that would’ve done it to me. But no, it was actually like 10 years later when Maria sent an insane storm surge into NY and I took 4ft into my first home which was waterfront. That did me in and I have definitely had a bit of a tick about me when it comes to these things since.

Oddly enough too, after Maria destroyed that home in NY - I decided to move to South Florida lol.

[Category5Kaiju]

165/914 now.

The fact that this is what we call Milton "weakening," when the vast majority of Atlantic hurricane seasons fail to see a storm that reaches 165/914, is something else.

[Cat5James]

11 pm cone ticks south from St Pete back to Bradenton (and over my home in Parrish)

[ObsessedMiami]

This is absolutely true!

I never would have believed I was someone who would "suffer" from PTSD, but I guarantee you, I do, ever since Ian.

I went through Charley and wasn't fazed, but Ian did me in!

We are MOVING just as soon as we can sell this property (already bought a place in Arizona - LAND LOCKED STATE!!! No hurricanes). Unfortunately, hurricanes keep popping up and making it impossible for us to get O-U-T.

Same here...Thought I wasn't the PTSD type until I woke up every night in the hurricane calling for my mother who died during the height of Ian...Ground hog day that went on for months...Still does...The mind does weird stuff...

The PTSD from hurricanes/tropical events is REAL. Lost my family home(s) [plural because we our mainland home took the worst of it, but our bar/beach house was also severely flooded] when I was in my late teens to Sandy. You’d think that would’ve done it to me. But no, it was actually like 10 years later when Maria sent an insane storm surge into NY and I took 4ft into my first home which was waterfront. That did me in and I have definitely had a bit of a tick about me when it comes to these things since.

Oddly enough too, after Maria destroyed that home in NY - I decided to move to South Florida lol.

As an FIU student in the time of Andrew, I took part in a big Anthropology study of the cultural effects of the storm. The amount of divorces in the six months after Andrew was astronomical.

[weeniepatrol]

Excerpt from the new discussion:

Residents in Florida should closely follow the
orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton
has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on
record for west-central Florida.

'

[Xyls]

165/914 now.

The fact that this is what we call Milton "weakening," when the vast majority of Atlantic hurricane seasons fail to see a storm that reaches 165/914, is something else.

This is proof that 2024 is indeed a dud. Cancel the season.

[SconnieCane]

One thing that only sunk in with me over the last couple of days is that Ian, as bad as it was in places like Ft. Myers Beach and Sanibel, wasn't even the worst case scenario for surge in the vicinity that it hit. Slightly further north and it does to Charlotte Harbor the same thing everyone's been concerned might happen to Tampa Bay. We could see that happen with Milton instead.

[weeniepatrol]

Thanks to the jet stream to the north of Milton, his outflow extends all the way to very distant Hurricane Leslie.

[SconnieCane]

AVN Loop for Old Time's Sake:

https://elixi.re/i/ixy3o.gif

Black ring encircled! Sub-900mb club

OMG! Where on earth (or the Internet) did you find this?! I've driven myself batty trying to locate these old-school GOES floater IR products (AVN, RBTOP, etc) ever since the links disappeared from the NOAA site (although, the TT IR products have grown on me) without success. I believe this is the page I used to find them on but now it seems to only have them for the Himawari-8 satellite which only covers the WPAC.

If you can point me to a link where these still can be found...

I just found them during Helene, I thought they were gone a few years ago and only cyclonicwx.com had a repo of AVN and a few others! There are multiple "versions" which is a tad confusing one is modern the other old:

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters-old.html

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floate ... oater.html

The older one I just found during a brave search but re-searching doesn't show it. The link is on my other machine.

Thank you! Although that site definitely does seem like it's not fully maintained; for some reason a bunch of the Greek names from 2020 are still listed under active Atlantic floaters alongside Kirk, Leslie and Milton.

It was midway through the 2018 season that these products started to become hard to find for some reason (no longer attached to the "Satellite Imagery" page accessible directly from the NHC homepage). I can tell because I have RBTOP and AVN loop GIFs saved of Florence, but all the loops I have of Michael are from TT.

[Aggiemon96]

The PTSD from hurricanes/tropical events is REAL. Lost my family home(s) [plural because we our mainland home took the worst of it, but our bar/beach house was also severely flooded] when I was in my late teens to Sandy. You’d think that would’ve done it to me. But no, it was actually like 10 years later when Maria sent an insane storm surge into NY and I took 4ft into my first home which was waterfront. That did me in and I have definitely had a bit of a tick about me when it comes to these things since.

Oddly enough too, after Maria destroyed that home in NY - I decided to move to South Florida lol.

Oh, the irony! I have suffered quite a few storms living here on the Gulf Coast, and I have...well, always lived on the Gulf Coast. Needless to say, I have a mind for 'canes and their effects, immediate and prolonged. Anyway, when Hurricane Sandy was bearing down on the Northeast, I was invited by my company to interview for a position in Erie, PA. Again, as a veteran of Gulf Coast storms, I asked them if they actually intended to hold the interviews on schedule considering what was coming their way.
They said absolutely. Alrighty, then.

Was going to fly into Detroit and take a lake-hopper into Erie. Landed at Wayne County and cell phone immediately started buzzing saying my flight to Erie was canceled. I'll spare the details as I know I am deviating from Milton discussion a bit, but I ended up driving from Detroit all the way to Erie in a Ford Speck (at least that's what it should've been called, and was in no way fit for a near 300-lb brawny male) IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STORM. There was indeed a glass or two of wine consumed upon my arrival at the hotel.

[Keldeo1997]

[eastcoastFL]

Excerpt from the new discussion:

Residents in Florida should closely follow the
orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton
has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on
record for west-central Florida.

'

Well thats a scary message that you don't see often if ever.

[Aggiemon96]

As an FIU student in the time of Andrew, I took part in a big Anthropology study of the cultural effects of the storm. The amount of divorces in the six months after Andrew was astronomical.

As was, I am sure, the number of births about 9 months after.

Our daughter was a "product" of an evacuation. Indeed, Hurricane Rita ended up being extremely costly for me, despite the only physical damage of note being my fence! (No, we didn't end up naming her Rita, though we considered it for a fleeting moment or two.)

[canetoad]

This is absolutely true!

I never would have believed I was someone who would "suffer" from PTSD, but I guarantee you, I do, ever since Ian.

I went through Charley and wasn't fazed, but Ian did me in!

We are MOVING just as soon as we can sell this property (already bought a place in Arizona - LAND LOCKED STATE!!! No hurricanes). Unfortunately, hurricanes keep popping up and making it impossible for us to get O-U-T.

Same here...Thought I wasn't the PTSD type until I woke up every night in the hurricane calling for my mother who died during the height of Ian...Ground hog day that went on for months...Still does...The mind does weird stuff...

The PTSD from hurricanes/tropical events is REAL. Lost my family home(s) [plural because we our mainland home took the worst of it, but our bar/beach house was also severely flooded] when I was in my late teens to Sandy. You’d think that would’ve done it to me. But no, it was actually like 10 years later when Maria sent an insane storm surge into NY and I took 4ft into my first home which was waterfront. That did me in and I have definitely had a bit of a tick about me when it comes to these things since.

Oddly enough too, after Maria destroyed that home in NY - I decided to move to South Florida lol.

even on here, you can definitely and nearly immediately tell the people who have lived through the ill effects of one of these from the "enthusiasts" who haven't - nothing against the people who are here expressing genuine awe at what nature has managed to produce here, as it is nothing short of jaw-dropping, but there's such a contrast sometimes between folks who almost seem to root for the pressure to bottom out vs. those who get queasy even looking at numbers like the ones we're seeing.

[canetoad]

165/914 now.

The fact that this is what we call Milton "weakening," when the vast majority of Atlantic hurricane seasons fail to see a storm that reaches 165/914, is something else.

This is proof that 2024 is indeed a dud. Cancel the season.

You joke, but it is wild to recall that jut a few short weeks ago there was talk of the NOAA forecasters having to eat crow for predicting that this season could be more eventful and destructive than usual. The narrative changed quickly enough to cause whiplash, and yet not for the reasons anyone necessarily predicted: this may not be a top ACE season but in terms of recovery cost and lives lost I fear this season will be above average even if Milton ends up being the last one to make landfall.

Just goes to show it only takes one or two in the exact wrong conditions to bring an inordinate amount of hell

[Hurricane Mike]

11:30pm Video on Milton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myfU3z3PwGM

[NAVAIDNICK]

As an FIU student in the time of Andrew, I took part in a big Anthropology study of the cultural effects of the storm. The amount of divorces in the six months after Andrew was astronomical.

That makes complete sense to me. The months after a big disaster will stress any family, especially ones with fractures already. Doesn't matter if it is a hurricane, a flood, a fire, or something else. These types of events are literally lifechanging and there will be many people who talk about their lives before Milton and after, similar to the way so many remember 9/11/01.

[Keldeo1997]

Both Inner and Outer EW is closed on VDM. Also, outer EW is contracting. Now down to 22nm from 26nm