ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

Outer EW really starting to crank now. Big VHT went off there too.

[Stormgodess]

Fun random fact: Milton is currently near, if not directly over the Chicxulub crater impact site. This site on the Yucatan Peninsula is where the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs landed.

Deep hot water also, right?

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, this thread really slowed down

[Blinhart]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/697996354537914448/1293065258725933106/Screenshot_234.png?ex=6706045d&is=6704b2dd&hm=92110911332acd3c0e5e98f7143b13564ea6b533221184000942e5ba660dda31&

Outer EW really starting to crank now. Big VHT went off there too.

As soon as the inner eye dissipates, and this new Eye continues constricting, I THINK, this could be beginning of the next ERI cycle and he could get up to 200 MPH and a pressure down to around 870, and become the most powerful Hurricane in recorded Atlantic History.

[Blinhart]

wow, this thread really slowed down

I think all the folks in Florida are resting up for the next few days of intense preparedness and then either evacuating or riding him out.

[Category5Kaiju]

wow, this thread really slowed down

I mean...it is past midnight for many on the East Coast, and between how this really ramped up during the day, I think a bit of "tracker's exhaustion" may be setting in. I'm going to bed....we'll see what this beast looks like tomorrow morning.

[DunedinNate]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/697996354537914448/1293065258725933106/Screenshot_234.png?ex=6706045d&is=6704b2dd&hm=92110911332acd3c0e5e98f7143b13564ea6b533221184000942e5ba660dda31&

Outer EW really starting to crank now. Big VHT went off there too.

As soon as the inner eye dissipates, and this new Eye continues constricting, I THINK, this could be beginning of the next ERI cycle and he could get up to 200 MPH and a pressure down to around 870, and become the most powerful Hurricane in recorded Atlantic History.

What about the MPI people were discussing earlier? Looks like the area it’s going into can only support a minimum central pressure of 890.

[afswo]

wow, this thread really slowed down

I suspect it is people resting to gather strength for the coming days ahead. People like myself will have to explain why I did not say that a Category 5 would be sitting in the Gulf of Mexico aiming at Florida. Just think, this looked like a weak rainmaker a few days ago...

I mentioned that 200 mph winds were not out of the question. After the "your out of your mind" comments they realized I was not kidding. I am having an adult beverage and prepping for a long couple of days.

[Woofde]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/697996354537914448/1293065258725933106/Screenshot_234.png?ex=6706045d&is=6704b2dd&hm=92110911332acd3c0e5e98f7143b13564ea6b533221184000942e5ba660dda31&

Outer EW really starting to crank now. Big VHT went off there too.

As soon as the inner eye dissipates, and this new Eye continues constricting, I THINK, this could be beginning of the next ERI cycle and he could get up to 200 MPH and a pressure down to around 870, and become the most powerful Hurricane in recorded Atlantic History.

What about the MPI people were discussing earlier? Looks like the area it’s going into can only support a minimum central pressure of 890.

Yeah, I think people are underestimating just how difficult it is to get a sub 900 storm. If Milton even rebreaks the threshold I will be very surprised, it's more realistic that it's second peak will be 910's or low 900's, that is still insanely impressive.

[Blinhart]

I could see some of the GoM make it into The Villages with the super high Storm Surge that will be at least 15-20 feet in some areas and the waves on top of it. I haven't looked for any talk of how high the waves are right now, but won't be surprised if some areas there are some waves that are currently 40-50 foot and they will only go down due to the Gulf Shelf.

[grapealcoholic]

https://imgur.com/Nz23zSZ

almost done

[Blinhart]

As soon as the inner eye dissipates, and this new Eye continues constricting, I THINK, this could be beginning of the next ERI cycle and he could get up to 200 MPH and a pressure down to around 870, and become the most powerful Hurricane in recorded Atlantic History.

What about the MPI people were discussing earlier? Looks like the area it’s going into can only support a minimum central pressure of 890.

Yeah, I think people are underestimating just how difficult it is to get a sub 900 storm. If Milton even rebreaks the threshold I will be very surprised, it's more realistic that it's second peak will be 910's or low 900's, that is still insanely impressive.

That's why I'm reading in-between lines of Pro-Mets that there is a lot internal modeling that we aren't seeing that shows that this system will go beyond MPI since there is still a lot to learn about this newest part of Meteorology. These systems this year are already starting to teach us about MPI. That is why I went with what I said.

[Teban54]

Even during EWRC, Milton still wants to keep the -80C ring.

[FLLurker32]

I could see some of the GoM make it into The Villages with the super high Storm Surge that will be at least 15-20 feet in some areas and the waves on top of it. I haven't looked for any talk of how high the waves are right now, but won't be surprised if some areas there are some waves that are currently 40-50 foot and they will only go down due to the Gulf Shelf.

You have me feeling a bit of regret that this wasn’t my response when many Villagers began flipping out and asking whether or not to evacuate.

[HDGator]

Even during EWRC, Milton still wants to keep the -80C ring.

https://i.postimg.cc/nzZqPcJr/goes16-ir-14-L-202410080217.gif

I don't think I'm going to like Milton 2.0 with the new, bigger eye.
This ERC is going to leave too much time for consolidation and strengthening before the potential weakening dry air and shear.

[Keldeo1997]

Recon reports that the EWRC is done. Just one 16nm EW.

[Sciencerocks]

Based on latest recon the pressure is in the lower 920's with flight level winds in the 120's knts and smrf is 135 knts. I'd go around 130 knts.

[wx98]

Huge amount of lightning in the southern eyewall. A sign that it still has plenty of life.

[CrazyC83]

Recon reports that the EWRC is done. Just one 16nm EW.

That makes me think re-strengthening might happen overnight into tomorrow morning. It might be like Camille that gets out of an ERC and then quickly reboots itself.

[Poonwalker]

I had wondered what life would be like to build a house on scorpion key. Get up early every day and fish the most pristine and remote places on earth. Right now that would be a living hell.