ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

951.7mb, 6mb/hr rate of deepening according to extrap

Where are you seeing the data? The last line I'm seeing loaded is still the 956 reading.

[cycloneye]

Is it bombing?

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 951.7mb at 19:30z

[kevin]

New recon pass, 915.7 mb with 7 kt nearby -> 951 mb. She's really going for it now.

[Charleswachal]

This is some major deepening. If this continues for 5 more hours we are in for some serious strengthening up to landfall

[FLpanhandle91]

[ScottNAtlanta]

36/56 mph, light rain here in Boca Raton, FL.

Looks like one of the bands is going through the east coast of Florida currently

[Teban54]

So within a span of 3-4 hours, the memo went from "may not even be a major at landfall" to "high-end Cat 4 possible if this keeps up".

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.postimg.cc/YCbszGnh/recon-AF308-1609-A-HELENE-zoom-1.png

Bombs away

[Travorum]

951.8mb, 6mb/hr rate of deepening

Let's wait for the eye drop since the extrap pressure can sometimes be a bit too low... But yeah, either way she's really bombing out now.

NE quad interestingly has slightly weaker winds than E, but there's probably undersampling given Helene's size.

Yep I clarified extrap as it was about 3mb too low last pass, I'm assuming that error is constant so my guess is that the drop should be around 955mb.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like Helene is deeping 6-7 mb per pass based on recon.

[Hugo1989]

This is insane! I'm in South Tampa and there's no rain at all. Gusts are really strong tho.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

951.7 mb
(~ 28.11 inHg)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Glad to see folks in Tampa are taking this seriously and don't have a complacent attitude towards hurricanes.

 https://x.com/WPBF_BROOKE/status/1839323134895534329

[ScottNAtlanta]

So within a span of 3-4 hours, the memo went from "may not even be a major at landfall" to "high-end Cat 4 possible if this keeps up".

...but really, isn't it always that way

[cycloneye]

Is it bombing?

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 951.7mb at 19:30z

Round it to 952 mbs and anyway is lower that the past pass.

[zal0phus]

So within a span of 3-4 hours, the memo went from "may not even be a major at landfall" to "high-end Cat 4 possible if this keeps up".

Lowkey the 2024 season has pushed people to the limit on this forum.

[FLpanhandle91]

If she deepens at this rate through landfall she'd be a low to mid 930s storm.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/watkinstrack/status/1839391599572484133

[Kazmit]

Just realized Helene is pronounced "Heh-LEAN" and not like "Helen"

[Nuno]

I'll say that this wind field is MASSIVE

I’m 278 miles from the center right now with 50mph gusts at the moment. Pretty insane.

You are on the eastern coast of Florida?...

 https://twitter.com/iembot_mlb/status/1839317859182465465




The immediate coastal Atlantic is getting some interesting gusts reports. I'm immediately on the coast in Volusia and I'd say some bands have definitely packed a punch about 40mph.