ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/Un2afoB.png

Still no sign of that eye clearing out. If anything, its IR presentation looks a little worse than a few hours ago. Perhaps it’s not able to ventilate as well as before. We’ll see what happens when it moves closer to the Yucatan Channel later today.

[jlauderdal]

Higher CAPE air is now working its way into the east GOM from the south.
Seeing 4000 coming in.

The low that has been sitting over the eastern gulf is on the move with a lemon designation for future development, its a clear out in advance of Milt. No shortage of CAPE moving forward. I had over 10 inches of rain from this feature at my place which had zilch to do with Milt other than being in the same region. Take this one seriously and do not give up, not to give false hope but we have seen many hurricanes underperform on approach so there is that and this is a "small" system so the chances of a ramp down are there, ramp up is also possible especially later today as the system finds a very favorable setup including the loop current. A track S of Tampa is looking more likely so thats "good". Evacuate if you are in the zone, you only have to go a few miles but you are welcome to come to SE FL, I would stay as close as possible without getting surge. Long-range evacuations are entirely unnecessary.

DO NOT TRY AND BE A HERO WITH SURGE, THE CHASERS RUN FROM IT!!

[johngaltfla]

Higher CAPE air is now working its way into the east GOM from the south.
Seeing 4000 coming in.

The low that has been sitting over the eastern gulf is on the move with a lemon designation for future development, its a clear out in advance of Milt. No shortage of CAPE moving forward. I had over 10 inches of rain from this feature at my place which had zilch to do with Milt other than being in the same region. Take this one seriously and do not give up, not to give false hope but we have seen many hurricanes underperform on approach so there is that and this is a "small" system so the chances of a ramp down are there, ramp up is also possible especially later today as the system finds a very favorable setup including the loop current. A track S of Tampa is looking more likely so thats "good". Evacuate if you are in the zone, you only have to go a few miles but you are welcome to come to SE FL, I would stay as close as possible without getting surge. Long-range evacuations are entirely unnecessary.

DO NOT TRY AND BE A HERO WITH SURGE, THE CHASERS RUN FROM IT!!

It's "good" unless you're in that track jl, lol. But we're as ready as we can be for it. Thankfully I'm inland and we're evacuating our elderly relatives this afternoon from the "C" zones.

[kevin]

Recon descending to operational altitude and about to enter Milton. Very curious what they will find, not only Milton's intensity but especially the status of the eye(wall).

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Recon descending to operational altitude and about to enter Milton. Very curious what they will find, not only Milton's intensity but especially the status of the eye(wall).

Satellite presentation continues to degrade. Can’t imagine they will find the re-strengthening that NHC predicted.

[aspen]

https://i.ibb.co/rxj7vHq/Milton10-07-24.png

Where can I find the raw data points? I want to see if I can plot a best-fit curve that predicts what the minimum pressure may have been.

[grapealcoholic]

Recon descending to operational altitude and about to enter Milton. Very curious what they will find, not only Milton's intensity but especially the status of the eye(wall).

Satellite presentation continues to degrade. Can’t imagine they will find the re-strengthening that NHC predicted.

Low level structure is in tact. IR will follow in time

[kevin]

Recon descending to operational altitude and about to enter Milton. Very curious what they will find, not only Milton's intensity but especially the status of the eye(wall).

Satellite presentation continues to degrade. Can’t imagine they will find the re-strengthening that NHC predicted.

I disagree. It's not perfect by any means, but if anything I'd say satellite presentation has improved in the last 30 minutes. I don't think they'll find a cat 5, but I think Milton is already past its worst look.

30 minutes ago



Now

[dukeblue219]

Satellite presentation continues to degrade. Can’t imagine they will find the re-strengthening that NHC predicted.

Not sure I agree:

[Kat5]

Milton seems to have slowed down a lot in the past few hours.

[Chemmers]

Still aLot off lighting around the core

[kevin]

Eye temperature up to -60C, might start to clear out soon. In other words great time for recon.

[Nehalenniawx]

https://i.ibb.co/rxj7vHq/Milton10-07-24.png

Where can I find the raw data points? I want to see if I can plot a best-fit curve that predicts what the minimum pressure may have been.

In the Milton recon thread,
also somewhere in this archive:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2024

[kevin]

Starting to generate another pink ring. The pink ring covered a quarter of the CDO 30 minutes ago and now its already past the halfway mark.

[kevin]

Remarkable recovery in the last 1.5 hours:

[grapealcoholic]

Wind field has expanded

[dukeblue219]

NOAA eye penetration imminent...

[NDG]

Very good post this morning.

 https://x.com/osuwxguy/status/1843591731347931604

[dukeblue219]

Extrapolated 926.7mb

[kevin]

First recon pass, 926.7 mb extrapolated with 21 kt winds nearby. So far 126 kt FL winds on the western side.