ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

Nothing indicates a WNW movement. It’s not even close on radar (looks NNW) and visible (looks due N).

Beryl looks like it's heading due north?! I don't like the way this looks at all.

Ok.

So it's NOT just me

that is N or NNW at worse... geesh

[Stratton23]

it is likely just a temporary north movement, beryl will have to turn west and then eventually NW eventually, the ridge adis extends into louisiana

[xironman]

Radar looks over water at this point.

[MGC]

Beryl's circulation is likely not vertically stacked. Shear is tilting the cyclone to the north giving the appearance of a North movement. Recon should provide a good look at the vertical profile of the cyclone.....mgc

[ConvergenceZone]

The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

72+ hours in hot bath water?!? Button up Texas, this is our year, and this isn’t looking good at all.

True, but keep in mind that the NHC said in the discussion that they really don't expect much strengthening to occur until the 36 hour point due to shear. Hot temperatures are only 1 component that it's needed for a strengthening storm.

[CrazyC83]

If it stays on the right side of the track, would Houston be ready for a quick hit?

[Steve]

May be NNW but y’all know the NHC uses longer term motion to set heading.

[IcyTundra]

I remember Levi saying in his update today that there is a ridge in the eastern gulf that will help determine the eastern most possible tracks. I think SW Louisiana is a stretch at this point but Beryl just loves to prove people wrong,

Congrats on 1k posts, I'm going to bust out the crayons for you . The players are 'on the board' so to speak, and we can actually monitor these in real time now. There is an edge set to how far east this can actually go, and it will be determined by how far south the trough (highlighted in blue here) over the Midwest can dig and break down the ridge (in orange) associated with the high pressure. The dashed orange lines represents where we expect our break (could be more substantial, could be less, why I dashed this area and depends on the trough). In addition, as Beryl positions itself to the northeast of the retrograding ULL (that is backing out towards the west/NE Mexico), if we have a vertically stacked/deep cyclone, this southwesterly flow will also usher it towards the north (i.e., stronger cyclones feel the influence from upper-level flow more):

https://i.imgur.com/re87a9Y.png

If we look at the latest EPS run at 48 hours, we can see the most likely edge of the ridge (as denoted by the ensemble members) is set up right over LA. The likely location of Beryl at this point is further west, and the steering flow here would pull Beryl towards the central/northeastern Texas coastline.
https://i.imgur.com/fGRNVCv.png

What could cause Beryl to landfall more towards LA? If the center remerges off the Yucatan peninsula more to the east, Beryl's core remains relatively intact and quickly begins to restrengthen, and/or the trough deepens more than models are predicting, we could still see more shifts to the east.

Thank you it definently makes sense. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[aspen]

The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

72+ hours in hot bath water?!? Button up Texas, this is our year, and this isn’t looking good at all.

True, but keep in mind that the NHC said in the discussion that they really don't expect much strengthening to occur until the 36 hour point due to shear. Hot temperatures are only 1 component that it's needed for a strengthening storm.

Exactly. For Beryl to go nuts again, it would need to restack and rebuild it’s core within 24-36 hours. In this time period, it’ll be very vulnerable to dry air intrusions, which can very easily put a cap on the storm. Until later developments say otherwise, I think the NHC’s current landfall intensity is a pretty good forecast. Nothing crazy, but nothing to sneeze at either.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

72+ hours in hot bath water?!? Button up Texas, this is our year, and this isn’t looking good at all.

True, but keep in mind that the NHC said in the discussion that they really don't expect much strengthening to occur until the 36 hour point due to shear. Hot temperatures are only 1 component that it's needed for a strengthening storm.

That’s true, but you know more than I do that hurricanes in the Gulf have a history of quickly intensifying within 24 to 36 hours before landfall. And who’s to say that the shear from the ULL doesn’t relax sooner.

[MississippiWx]

Beryl's circulation is likely not vertically stacked. Shear is tilting the cyclone to the north giving the appearance of a North movement. Recon should provide a good look at the vertical profile of the cyclone.....mgc

I think it could be slightly, but zooming in with hi-res visible imagery, the mid-level cloud motions match the lower level motions. It’s really as far north as it seems.

[typhoonty]

IMO, history is not going to look kindly on the NHC failing to issue any kind of tropical product or watch for the Houston MSA, or points east right now on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

Signed, someone who had to deal with way too many people not taking Ian seriously for this reason in Fort Myers.

[CrazyC83]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/212133_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

IMO, history is not going to look kindly on the NHC failing to issue any kind of tropical product or watch for the Houston MSA, or points east right now on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

Signed, someone who had to deal with way too many people not taking Ian seriously for this reason in Fort Myers.

We're still not in the 48 hour range for Houston. If it moves farther up, it wouldn't make landfall until late Monday or even very early Tuesday.

[South Texas Storms]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/212133_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

IMO, history is not going to look kindly on the NHC failing to issue any kind of tropical product or watch for the Houston MSA, or points east right now on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

Signed, someone who had to deal with way too many people not taking Ian seriously for this reason in Fort Myers.

We're still not in the 48 hour range for Houston. If it moves farther up, it wouldn't make landfall until late Monday or even very early Tuesday.

Not necessarily. ICON, which has been the best performing model with this storm so far, has it moving into Galveston Sunday night.

[Tailgater33]

Beryl's circulation is likely not vertically stacked. Shear is tilting the cyclone to the north giving the appearance of a North movement. Recon should provide a good look at the vertical profile of the cyclone.....mgc

I think it could be slightly, but zooming in with hi-res visible imagery, the mid-level cloud motions match the lower level motions. It’s really as far north as it seems.

I agree, using COD’s Day cloud phase imagery beryl looks like it still stacked but drying up a good bit.

[Javlin]

Beryl looks like it's heading due north?! I don't like the way this looks at all.

Ok.

So it's NOT just me

that is N or NNW at worse... geesh

And all one has to do Frank is look at which direction the cloud flow is going and it's N/NNW will be the movement for the next 6/8hrs It can't go through the ULL to the west.

[GCANE]

That ULL is degrading faster than I would have thought.
CAPE is through the roof in the GoM.
I got a bad feeling about this.

[Javlin]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/212133_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

IMO, history is not going to look kindly on the NHC failing to issue any kind of tropical product or watch for the Houston MSA, or points east right now on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

Signed, someone who had to deal with way too many people not taking Ian seriously for this reason in Fort Myers.

We're still not in the 48 hour range for Houston. If it moves farther up, it wouldn't make landfall until late Monday or even very early Tuesday.

Not necessarily. ICON, which has been the best performing model with this storm so far, has it moving into Galveston Sunday night.

I do not think it's going that far W with the ULL out there going out on a limb NO/Pensacola we still have trof to deal with.

[Bimms]

Some of the Houston Mets are now starting to state that Beryl could now affect the Houston Metro with a couple of them stating they expect the cone to shift further east from where it is now bringing it on shore closer to Houston. At least one of them seemed to be very concerned about it and went as far as to state that he does expect that shift more east and a landfall closer to Galveston/Houston.

[Nederlander]

We're still not in the 48 hour range for Houston. If it moves farther up, it wouldn't make landfall until late Monday or even very early Tuesday.

Not necessarily. ICON, which has been the best performing model with this storm so far, has it moving into Galveston Sunday night.

I do not think it's going that far W with the ULL out there going out on a limb NO/Pensacola we still have trof to deal with.

Huh? NO/Pensacola? Zero chance of that