ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

We need to caveat the space weather data. It's all real data but the impacts on strengthening cyclones is less dramatic than it may be portrayed. I see a few posts asking about the "timing" of strengthening based on peak geomagnetic activity and that bothers me a bit.

[CronkPSU]

We need to caveat the space weather data. It's all real data but the impacts on strengthening cyclones is less dramatic than it may be portrayed. I see a few posts asking about the "timing" of strengthening based on peak geomagnetic activity and that bothers me a bit.

I see no harm in any of them compared to tons of other posts which are just guesses or poor interpretations of data…it is just another tool that you can choose to believe or not

[Laser30033003]

Milton has winds of 155mph... so isn't that a cat 5...yet I heard that its a cat 4 ...??

[WaveBreaking]

Milton has winds of 155mph... so isn't that a cat 5...yet I heard that its a cat 4 ...??

Cat 5 starts at 157mph

[aspen]

Milton has winds of 155mph... so isn't that a cat 5...yet I heard that its a cat 4 ...??

155mph (135 kt) is the highest winds of a Cat 4. Cat 5s start at 160 mph (140 kt).

[InfernoFlameCat]

Milton has winds of 155mph... so isn't that a cat 5...yet I heard that its a cat 4 ...??

155 mph is a cat 4. However, I do expect it to regain cat 5 status.

[GCANE]

Why specifically close to noon? Is that when ionospheric heating from last night’s G3 storm will peak?

Yes, when the blue area gets over the GoM
https://solarham.com/globald.htm

You're joking right?

It's been correlating very well last couple days.
Ionospheric heating raises the atmosphere below it causing the vort column to expand vertically.
This causes Milton to spin faster due to conservation of angular momentum.

The effect can clearly be seen here where the top of the warm core is well over 100mb.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

Need to see today if there is much of an effect on intensification.
I am thinking there may be a limit as to how much more the atmosphere can expand.
Also, a stronger solar wind may induce UL turbulence and in fact could weaken Milton.
Wait and see.

[skillz305]

Vero Beach looking at wind gusts of 85mph Thursday morning…. Please prepare treasure coast

[ColdMiser123]

There is room for this to deepen from where it is now, but it won't get to where it was yesterday namely due to the larger RMW from the larger eye.

[drewschmaltz]

We need to caveat the space weather data. It's all real data but the impacts on strengthening cyclones is less dramatic than it may be portrayed. I see a few posts asking about the "timing" of strengthening based on peak geomagnetic activity and that bothers me a bit.

Just about all of the energy not in Milton but on planet earth is derived from the sun. What sense does it make to discount high energy events from the sun? We analyze every nuance, I feel like this is a built in bias unfairly levied.

[Pipelines182]

Recon descending to operational altitude and about to enter Milton. Very curious what they will find, not only Milton's intensity but especially the status of the eye(wall).

Satellite presentation continues to degrade. Can’t imagine they will find the re-strengthening that NHC predicted.

Not sure I agree with either your observation or conclusion. Maybe IR it's not as pretty as it looked yesterday, but if you look under-the-hood the structure is very sound still. Eye obscuration could be remnants from the original inner eyewall still holding on somewhere, or another structural evolution.

https://i.imgur.com/pf35fFO.jpeg

The HAFS called for this as far back as yesterday morning; an EWRC overnight into the morning, pressures and winds staying steady until about 00z where Milton begins intensifying for a secondary peak. It has done well so far.

Agreed, eye is rapidly warming as well. Green light in intensification, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a cat 5 again by noon or earlier.

[eastcoastFL]

It looks like the wind field may have expanded a bit.

[aspen]

Is that a bit of a moat in the western quadrant on IR?

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/FLSERT/status/1843346643770585107

[eastcoastFL]

Vero Beach looking at wind gusts of 85mph Thursday morning…. Please prepare treasure coast

Vero will be pretty close to the eyewall as it crosses the state according to the current track. I'm about 30 miles south of Vero and our forecast is for 50mph gusts. This current rain that's been over us the past 4 days has really been a pain for preps.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/Info_Planett/status/1843612180563832857

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There is room for this to deepen from where it is now, but it won't get to where it was yesterday namely due to the larger RMW from the larger eye.

Agreed. Arguably, Milton at 165mph (for example) with a larger eye and wind radius is significantly more dangerous than the tiny, supercell-like hurricane we saw yesterday.

[eastcoastFL]

Hws gaining some latitude now too. Last recon fix from last night had him south of 22n and now he's around 22.5n. Gonna be interesting to see how much he continues to gain throughout this morning.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1843593466603024760

[jlauderdal]

Why specifically close to noon? Is that when ionospheric heating from last night’s G3 storm will peak?

Yes, when the blue area gets over the GoM
https://solarham.com/globald.htm

You're joking right?

Space weather is no joke.