ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Well on the way to hurricane. Ahead of schedule for sure.

[zzzh]

I think we'll see a hurricane today if the trend continues.

[Landy]

Hoping they can work out a recon mission for today should trends continue; they've already relocated a plane to St. Croix so I don't think it'd be totally impossible.

[GCANE]

Multiple rotating towers.
Well on its way to building an eyewall.
It looks like there is convection north of the core indicative of a feeder band.

[GCANE]

Looking at a wider WV loop, there is a lot of convection west of Beryl off the SA coast.
High TPW air is being pulled up from the mid Amazon basin by a deep trough.
Once Beryl hits that, it'll be balls to the wall.

[GCANE]

Looks like a secondary anticyclonic wave break will be setup across most of the Carib once Baryl is in the Carib.
At that point, it appears that the only inhibiting factor for Beryl will be any land interaction with Hispaniola.

[Keldeo1997]

Is that a eyewall already???

[zzzh]

Yes, microwave eye

[Landy]

Historic storm in the making. Hope those in its path prepare accordingly, truly some shocking developments tonight.

[Stratton23]

Am i the only one who thinks this storm looks or is shaped like the number 6 lol?

[kevin]

Incredible rate of organization so far, well on its way to a hurricane. I know NHC's forecast is bullish, but looking at Beryl so far I think if anything they're still underestimating its potential in the short-term timeframe.

[Landy]

[kevin]

Raw T# from 40 minutes ago up to 3.1 (47 kt / 999 mb).

[AxaltaRacing24]

Incredible rate of organization so far, well on its way to a hurricane. I know NHC's forecast is bullish, but looking at Beryl so far I think if anything they're still underestimating its potential in the short-term timeframe.

This will not be a 45mph storm by 11am, and will unlikely be only 60mph at 11pm Saturday night.

[zzzh]

The microwave image came in too late, NHC probably has the advisory written already

[zzzh]

I think this is currently 50 to 55 kt.

[zzzh]

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Beryl has become better
organized, with the formation of a cold curved convective band near
the center and over the western semicircle. However, AMSR-2
microwave data near 04Z suggested that the center of this convective
curvature may have been displaced a little west of the low-level
center. Based on the various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to a
possibly conservative 45 kt.

[kevin]

Makes sense for NHC to be a bit conservative now, which they explicitly mention as well. The MW imagery was a bit last-minute and this way they can see whether the current developments continue for a few hours. I expect the current intensity to be raised to 50 kt in post-season analysis.

[GCANE]

Am i the only one who thinks this storm looks or is shaped like the number 6 lol?

I think its giving us the finger

[USTropics]

First visible imagery of the morning, just in time to witness a significant hot tower right over the center: