ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pasmorade]

7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8
Location: 22.5°N 88.8°W
Moving: ENE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

NHC down again to 145

Well, it just completed an EWRC which ravaged it for the past 12 hours, so I'm pretty sure that's a likely NHC estimate for the storm's intensity

[xironman]

All this land interaction, while probably limiting the system in the short term will make for a much larger wind field. Not good for surge.

[tropicwatch]

Pressures are falling again and AF HH finding 155mph surface winds again. I think Milton might exceed intensity forecasts once again.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/WEpKNbk.jpeg

Still a monster. I'm now under a hurricane warning on the east coast. Even though it'll be weaker the current track is over my house.

I wonder if there will be anything left of the eye when it gets to this side of the state. I know with Wilma we were in the eye in loxahatchee but she was really moving.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like there's an increasing chance that Milton will become the first storm since Maria to reach Category 5 on multiple occasions.

[kronotsky]

I plotted Milton's extrapolated minimum pressures and fit them to a 6th order Polynomial in Excel to get a sense of how much lower its peak pressure may have been. I had to exclude the center passes from this morning's pair of flights because it resulted in a weaker fit, especially near peak intensity. The current fit is still too high around Milton's peak. Even so, it indicates that the 22z center pass occurred right after a peak that wasn't much lower than the what was observed (898.6mb extrapolated, 897mb corrected), just like Crazy suggested. Therefore, I think 895mb and 160kt is a good estimate for Milton's peak around 20-21z yesterday.
https://i.imgur.com/OYRfgrh.png

You should toss the data before 7/6Z because it has nothing to do with the strengthening phase. It's just adding noise to your model, and it's s probably why you had to use so many parameters to get a decent fit.

[jhpigott]

Has anyone looked at the latest ships shear forecast? I don't know if I'm reading it properly but to me it looks like the heavier shear won't hit Milton until he's onshore.

The shear idea before landfall is losing steam, gfs sniffed it out, lets see how the other modeling does with it.

If there is not as much shear as previously forecasted, will that keep less dry air from being injected into the southern side of the storm and result in more rainfall to the south of the track than currently forecasted?

[drewschmaltz]

Euro bringing it in even slower. About to research speed vs surge. I'm guessing no bueno. Crazy on how the models are so close to the mouth of the bay. The shear + speed + change in direction its going to be broadly devastating but individually a nail biter. You know. From your hotel because you evacuated.

... Written from Orlando. I really should be bringing things in.

[tolakram]

Has anyone looked at the latest ships shear forecast? I don't know if I'm reading it properly but to me it looks like the heavier shear won't hit Milton until he's onshore.

The shear idea before landfall is losing steam, gfs sniffed it out, lets see how the other modeling does with it.

If there is not as much shear as previously forecasted, will that keep less dry air from being injected into the southern side of the storm and result in more rainfall to the south of the track than currently forecasted?

That is a good question. Models are slowing it down and showing less shear. Maybe that means it turns before landfall, but maybe that means it's stronger. By the time we find out it will probably be too late for many on the coast, so be prepared.

[NDG]

NOAA dropsonde with 931mb and 17 knot winds support pressure around 929/930mb.

[NDG]

The shear idea before landfall is losing steam, gfs sniffed it out, lets see how the other modeling does with it.

If there is not as much shear as previously forecasted, will that keep less dry air from being injected into the southern side of the storm and result in more rainfall to the south of the track than currently forecasted?

That is a good question. Models are slowing it down and showing less shear. Maybe that means it turns before landfall, but maybe that means it's stronger. By the time we find out it will probably be too late for many on the coast, so be prepared.

Another 36-48 hours before landfall (if latest GFS & Euro are correct) anything is still possible with Milton is my thinking. We usually don't know for sure until we get closer to 24 hrs that's when the models really lock in.

[eastcoastFL]

The shear idea before landfall is losing steam, gfs sniffed it out, lets see how the other modeling does with it.

If there is not as much shear as previously forecasted, will that keep less dry air from being injected into the southern side of the storm and result in more rainfall to the south of the track than currently forecasted?

That is a good question. Models are slowing it down and showing less shear. Maybe that means it turns before landfall, but maybe that means it's stronger. By the time we find out it will probably be too late for many on the coast, so be prepared.

That's a good observation that I didn't consider. Typically when it slows down it's starting to change course so you're right the slow down could be it starting to turn into that more eastern heading

[NDG]

Good morning Milton.

[tolakram]

saved loop

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[eastcoastFL]

This same small patch of rain has been just dumping buckets of rain in Stuart for about 24 hours now and it has nothing to do with Milton. This whole pregame storm is a bit ridiculous. I really hope Milton is dry in the south side as forecast because we can't take much more rain here. From here to dade it looks fairly clear. But theyve been getting heavy rain in dade and the keys since Friday as well.

[Steve H.]

Milton is looking pretty ragged this morning. Not sure if he will regain his previous form. But that could change in an hour

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This same small patch of rain has been just dumping buckets of rain in Stuart for about 24 hours now and it has nothing to do with Milton. This whole pregame storm is a bit ridiculous. I really hope Milton is dry in the south side as forecast because we can't take much more rain here. From here to dade it looks fairly clear. But theyve been getting heavy rain in dade and the keys since Friday as well.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Models show <5 inches of rain south of Tampa. North of Tampa gets 24+ inches. Lots of local variability though so consult your local weather services.

[dukeblue219]

Just about all of the energy not in Milton but on planet earth is derived from the sun. What sense does it make to discount high energy events from the sun? We analyze every nuance, I feel like this is a built in bias unfairly levied.

But it's not unfairly levied, science is inherently skeptical of correlation>causation.

It's an observation that might correlate at times, but until the effect is understood, it's an interesting high tech variant of a groundhog.

Understood and agreed. But nothing about that is bothersome. Rather, it's fascinating. In all fairness if that's your barometer for bothersome, it's bothersome that anyone here thinks something occuring with a storm is more likely than the nhc's consensus. The most likely scenario is and always will be their forecast.

So, embrace the curiosity. And you know, don't be too quick to discount the effects of the most powerful events in our solar system.

To clarify the part that bothers me isnt the curiosity, the discussion, or the correlation of space weather with cyclonic activity. It's the part where I interpreted folks not familiar with the topic now considering it to be settled science as a predictive tool to forecast rapid intensification .

[tolakram]

But it's not unfairly levied, science is inherently skeptical of correlation>causation.

It's an observation that might correlate at times, but until the effect is understood, it's an interesting high tech variant of a groundhog.

Understood and agreed. But nothing about that is bothersome. Rather, it's fascinating. In all fairness if that's your barometer for bothersome, it's bothersome that anyone here thinks something occuring with a storm is more likely than the nhc's consensus. The most likely scenario is and always will be their forecast.

So, embrace the curiosity. And you know, don't be too quick to discount the effects of the most powerful events in our solar system.

To clarify the part that bothers me isnt the curiosity, the discussion, or the correlation of space weather with cyclonic activity. It's the part where I interpreted folks not familiar with the topic now considering it to be settled science as a predictive tool to forecast rapid intensification .

Not sure we can help how others think.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Has there ever been a storm that went sub-900 mbar on two separate occasions? It looks like there is a small window for restrengthening but it is still a long way off its peak intensity.