ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Has there ever been a storm that went sub-900 mbar on two separate occasions? It looks like there is a small window for restrengthening but it is still a long way off its peak intensity.

Really hard to get sub 900 without a pinhole eye, I'm also not sure if it's ever happened.

[kevin]

Has there ever been a storm that went sub-900 mbar on two separate occasions? It looks like there is a small window for restrengthening but it is still a long way off its peak intensity.

No, at least not in the Atlantic. The closest one is hurricane Allen which has a 899 mb and a 909 mb peak.

[Michele B]

And C in the Tampa Bay region.

Contraflow really needs to be implemented in the Northern part of the state, with on lane south for Tankers and emergency vehicles. The traffic is a nightmare and gas stations empty

Actually our DOT did a very in depth study on this.

Contraflow actually made the traffic worse and obstructed necessary supplies coming into to the regions impacted for pre and post storm preparation.

Kudos to them for actually analyzing every storm since Andrew and validating the findings.

The locals will find surface roads off the Interstate to move on. May also be gas available there, since it won't be highly trafficked.

[Kazmit]

Milton is looking pretty ragged this morning. Not sure if he will regain his previous form. But that could change in an hour

Will it regain its previous sub-900 mb form? Maybe not. But keep things in perspective. Even if it only peaks again at say 140kts, that is still an insanely strong storm.

[kevin]

ADT calls for a pinhole again. Latest eye diameter was 12 nm, curious if recon will now also find a pinhole eye.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2024 Time : 121020 UTC
Lat : 22:28:47 N Lon : 88:41:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 916.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[Kazmit]

Its new eye is still so small. Wonder if we’ll see another EWRC after today’s strengthening episode.

[AutoPenalti]

Milton looking weaker this morning, tapping into some colder waters.

[Visioen]

Not possible without a pinhole.

Proceeds to develop pinhole.

[Buck]

I don’t think Rita’s eye would have been considered pinhole while at her sub-900 peak intensity, right?

[Buck]

tapping into some colder waters.

Not accurate.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Milton looking weaker this morning, tapping into some colder waters.

Inflow from the Yuk choking him out a bit.

[kevin]

Recon planes made the pass again.

AF309
928.4 mb extrapolated with 14 kt winds nearby -> 927 mb
129 kt FL

NOAA3
928.4 mb extrapolated with 24 kt winds nearby -> 926 mb
144 kt FL, only the eastern part, more data will follow soon

Based on these passes I'd put the current intensity at 927mb/130kt.

[Clearcloudz]

This question has been on my mind for some time so I'm going to go ahead and ask in this forum. Most professionals say to evacuate storm surge which is very important and I completely understand that but why do professionals also not focus on freshwater flooding that could occur from this storm. Some models are showing 24 inches of rain in a very short amount of time and I believe people will be caught off guard by the freshwater flooding from this storm. A suggestion could be just like the NHC used potential storm surge maps maybe the NWS can use potential fresh water flooding maps. From recent storms like Helene a lot people who were asked said that if they knew it would flood like this they would evacuate.

[tolakram]

So many bad calls, just like yesterday in my opinion.

Looks the same as it did yesterday just before RI, I still see a little junk in the eye but I'd say low 900's by this afternoon.

[Frank P]

Euro bringing it in even slower. About to research speed vs surge. I'm guessing no bueno. Crazy on how the models are so close to the mouth of the bay. The shear + speed + change in direction its going to be broadly devastating but individually a nail biter. You know. From your hotel because you evacuated.

... Written from Orlando. I really should be bringing things in.

Slow moving storms pile up more water over time, I would image one moving faster would not have as much time to pile up water.

[tolakram]

saved loop

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane circles eye.

[tolakram]

This question has been on my mind for some time so I'm going to go ahead and ask in this forum. Most professionals say to evacuate storm surge which is very important and I completely understand that but why do professionals also not focus on freshwater flooding that could occur from this storm. Some models are showing 24 inches of rain in a very short amount of time and I believe people will be caught off guard by the freshwater flooding from this storm. A suggestion could be just like the NHC used potential storm surge maps maybe the NWS can use potential fresh water flooding maps. From recent storms like Helene a lot people who were asked said that if they knew it would flood like this they would evacuate.

Your local officials should, the NHC focuses on the storm, but also mentions surge and rain. If you read the weather service messages from Helene you will see all local offices screaming about how bad it was going to be. I think the focus is there and where it should be.

[tolakram]

NOAA plane circles eye.

https://i.imgur.com/vV6C6d1.png

Drone launch maybe?

[underthwx]

ADT calls for a pinhole again. Latest eye diameter was 12 nm, curious if recon will now also find a pinhole eye.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2024 Time : 121020 UTC
Lat : 22:28:47 N Lon : 88:41:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 916.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Records are always subject to be broken.....and Milton has proven itself to be a candidate to do that....winds are now 145 mph....down from 180 mph yesterday....but Milton's energy and momentum are deadly and destructive...be it 145 mph...or 180 mph....I believe that the message to residents in the great state of Florida is clear....and residents are taking action...as advised by local and statewide emergency management officials..my sister who is a nurse....and lives in Tampa...is among those who have heeded the warnings of local and state officials....the NHC....and of course the experts right here...on Storm 2K.....i need to thank all of you for your dedication and knowledge....which has helped my family make decisions....based on your analysis of Milton...many of you are yourselves in harms way....but you remain here....providing vital information for the masses....and that is a remarkable thing.....well done!...