ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

43,000 without power in Tampa Bay

And climbing regionally.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I’ll guess 944

[Travorum]

Final T# now 6.2/120kt

[Hurrilurker]

I guess the "good" news is the coastal areas near where the center is projected to make landfall appear to mostly be a giant network of nature reserves and state parks with very few human occupants. Although that probably also means it will be more difficult to get help into those areas.

[sicktght311]

Honestly with the insanely rapid intensification going on, I'm expecting damn close to 938-940

[johngaltfla]

Those mesovorts are stretching and warping the crap out of the eyewall. Lightning everywhere in the core except the sw quad. It’s been a while since the last flight registered 951mb, I’d guess low 940s is what they’ll find.

I'm going with the 945 mb guess also. That storm looks nasty.

[Beef Stew]

While I don't think that winds will ultimately have time to catch up to it, Helene's structure and mslp will likely be more reminiscent of a high-end category 4 at landfall.

[WaveBreaking]

Lightning going ballistic after the latest VHT burst

[Abdullah]

Does anyone know why there's such a big discrepancy between the wind speeds displayed on the National Weather Service's mesoscale map (which seem more accurate based on my personal observations) and the airport weather station data (all of which are way higher)?

https://www.weather.gov/images/mlb/adas/winds_pmsl.gif

[Stormgodess]

Lightning going ballistic after the latest VHT burst

https://i.imgur.com/vrLFGbQ.gif

That's a really cool loop. Just sayin

[johngaltfla]

I guess the "good" news is the coastal areas near where the center is projected to make landfall appear to mostly be a giant network of nature reserves and state parks with very few human occupants. Although that probably also means it will be more difficult to get help into those areas.

Unfortunately the communities from Clearwater Beach on north will get whacked with very high storm surge. Tarpon Springs, New Port Richey, Crystal River, etc. are going to get above 10 feet easily.

[Hurricane Mike]

5:30pm Video Update on Helene for anyone interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBpMaUQBb0o

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2024 Time : 211020 UTC
Lat : 27:33:35 N Lon : 84:25:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 931.5mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.1 6.1

[Travorum]

946.6mb so far, 97kts FL in the western eyewall which is the weaker side of Helene.

NOAA2 1709A HELENE HDOB 12 20240926
214230 2741N 08505W 7522 02270 9744 +168 +154 320064 065 /// /// 03
214300 2741N 08503W 7517 02264 9727 +174 +155 320066 067 /// /// 03
214330 2741N 08500W 7529 02235 9709 +174 +175 314067 069 /// /// 05
214400 2742N 08458W 7528 02224 9686 +184 +166 314071 072 /// /// 03
214430 2742N 08455W 7523 02220 9664 +195 +162 313071 072 /// /// 03
214500 2743N 08452W 7512 02212 9645 +197 +156 311071 072 /// /// 03
214530 2743N 08450W 7521 02185 9630 +187 +171 320067 070 /// /// 03
214600 2743N 08447W 7528 02155 9605 +187 +179 322076 082 /// /// 03
214630 2744N 08445W 7512 02146 9578 +192 +178 320081 082 /// /// 03
214700 2744N 08442W 7509 02124 9527 +223 +163 317094 097 /// /// 03
214730 2745N 08440W 7522 02079 9493 +228 +166 311081 096 /// /// 03
214800 2746N 08437W 7529 02048 9470 +227 +170 298047 076 /// /// 03
214830 2747N 08436W 7520 02059 9469 +222 +165 292025 041 /// /// 03
214900 2749N 08435W 7522 02054 9474 +218 +156 280014 019 /// /// 03
214930 2751N 08434W 7525 02052 9476 +216 +152 246014 015 /// /// 03
215000 2753N 08434W 7523 02053 9470 +225 +140 237007 012 /// /// 03
215030 2754N 08431W 7519 02054 9475 +214 +149 224007 009 /// /// 03
215100 2754N 08429W 7518 02053 9471 +217 +151 217013 015 /// /// 03
215130 2754N 08427W 7519 02052 9466 +224 +146 213021 023 /// /// 03
215200 2754N 08424W 7521 02052 9467 +222 +158 204031 034 /// /// 03

[cheezyWXguy]

946.6mb so far, 97kts in the western eyewall which is the weaker side of Helene.

NOAA2 1709A HELENE HDOB 12 20240926
214230 2741N 08505W 7522 02270 9744 +168 +154 320064 065 /// /// 03
214300 2741N 08503W 7517 02264 9727 +174 +155 320066 067 /// /// 03
214330 2741N 08500W 7529 02235 9709 +174 +175 314067 069 /// /// 05
214400 2742N 08458W 7528 02224 9686 +184 +166 314071 072 /// /// 03
214430 2742N 08455W 7523 02220 9664 +195 +162 313071 072 /// /// 03
214500 2743N 08452W 7512 02212 9645 +197 +156 311071 072 /// /// 03
214530 2743N 08450W 7521 02185 9630 +187 +171 320067 070 /// /// 03
214600 2743N 08447W 7528 02155 9605 +187 +179 322076 082 /// /// 03
214630 2744N 08445W 7512 02146 9578 +192 +178 320081 082 /// /// 03
214700 2744N 08442W 7509 02124 9527 +223 +163 317094 097 /// /// 03
214730 2745N 08440W 7522 02079 9493 +228 +166 311081 096 /// /// 03
214800 2746N 08437W 7529 02048 9470 +227 +170 298047 076 /// /// 03
214830 2747N 08436W 7520 02059 9469 +222 +165 292025 041 /// /// 03
214900 2749N 08435W 7522 02054 9474 +218 +156 280014 019 /// /// 03
214930 2751N 08434W 7525 02052 9476 +216 +152 246014 015 /// /// 03
215000 2753N 08434W 7523 02053 9470 +225 +140 237007 012 /// /// 03
215030 2754N 08431W 7519 02054 9475 +214 +149 224007 009 /// /// 03
215100 2754N 08429W 7518 02053 9471 +217 +151 217013 015 /// /// 03
215130 2754N 08427W 7519 02052 9466 +224 +146 213021 023 /// /// 03
215200 2754N 08424W 7521 02052 9467 +222 +158 204031 034 /// /// 03

That is a major step in symmetrizing. This quadrant barely had hurricane FL winds this morning.

[ConvergenceZone]

43,000 without power in Tampa Bay

And climbing regionally.
https://johngaltfla.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Screen-Shot-09-26-24-at-05.46-PM.jpg

does anyone know of a site where you can get a map like you show that shows updated power outages across the affected states?

[grapealcoholic]

Inner core field has massively contracted & improved last couple hours.

[HurricaneBelle]

My barometer has leveled off at 993 here in Clearwater for the last hour or so, which tracks with the eye being just south of 110 miles due west of me.

I take that back, dipped to 991.8

[Kazmit]

Massive improvements in the western side, it now has cat 2 winds in the western eyewall when 6 hours ago it didn't even have hurricane-force winds.

[chris_fit]

43,000 without power in Tampa Bay

And climbing regionally.
https://johngaltfla.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Screen-Shot-09-26-24-at-05.46-PM.jpg

does anyone know of a site where you can get a map like you show that shows updated power outages across the affected states?

Poweroutage.us