ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Zonacane]

Milton’s eye starting to clear out

[Dean_175]

This question has been on my mind for some time so I'm going to go ahead and ask in this forum. Most professionals say to evacuate storm surge which is very important and I completely understand that but why do professionals also not focus on freshwater flooding that could occur from this storm. Some models are showing 24 inches of rain in a very short amount of time and I believe people will be caught off guard by the freshwater flooding from this storm. A suggestion could be just like the NHC used potential storm surge maps maybe the NWS can use potential fresh water flooding maps. From recent storms like Helene a lot people who were asked said that if they knew it would flood like this they would evacuate.

Inland flooding from Helene was well forecast, including news outlets saying it would rival the 1916 flood in the Appalachians. I also have seen warnings up for Milton for inland low lying areas, including graphics showing the extreme flash flooding risk in and around Orlando. I am sure my brother is about to live on a small island because of all the ponds in his subdivision.

The fact that there are people who said “if I’d only known” is an important indicator that the messaging isn’t getting to a lot of people who need it, and that should be a top policy priority to sort out.

I'm in the camp that people who are blindsided just aren't paying attention. They don'tdo their homework and probably wait until last minute to prepare...just my opinion.

It is just complacency. News is often overzealous with headlines and alerts to begin with... They are journalists and just want an attention grabbing narrative. But also: being in the risk zone for at least one storm year after year and having nothing happen for decades can do that. The vibe in St.Pete is significantly different than Helene (fewer people saying "it's nothing" and more evacuating. Same in Fort Myers after Ian. I was there for both and saw attitudes change immediately.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Seems like Milton's winds went up a bit (145 to 150 mph) but whether it can regain its earlier strength or not... can't answer that myself with my amateur eyes for now. Think I do see that Milton's current structure looks difficult though the conditions later on favor some recovery, and last few frames show a warmer eye (spoke too soon!). No good if the track consensus trends closer to Tampa Bay area too. I'm gonna take a rest for now. Keeping my family in Zone A and all else in my prayers.

[tropicwatch]

Whatever was affecting the northwest side of Milton earlier. Looks to have stopped and Milton appears to be rebuilding nicely.

[NDG]

I am sure he is trying to look for any bit of positive news for his Tampa audience but to go by just one model's ensembles is a bit too much misleading.

 https://x.com/PaulFox13/status/1843663941840572792

[Hurricaneman]

Whatever was affecting the northwest side of Milton earlier. Looks to have stopped and Milton appears to be rebuilding nicely.

Probably decreased inflow due to the Yucatán but since this is moving away it should look better the next few hours

[kevin]

Looks to be slightly north of the forecast track in the last few hours. Very difficult to say how much is just random wobbling though.

[Zonacane]

Whatever was affecting the northwest side of Milton earlier. Looks to have stopped and Milton appears to be rebuilding nicely.

Probably decreased inflow due to the Yucatán but since this is moving away it should look better the next few hours

Looks like a tongue of dry air made its way in. Based on IR Milton mixed it out and walled it off

[NDG]

Area of ionospheric heating is starting to come over Milton and there is a massive hot tower now firing on the west eyewall.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Are you predicting significant strengthening then? What if nothing happens?

I don't think it will be significant since he is over cooler water and the geomagnetic index is dropping.
Maybe just holds its own or slight strengthening.

29C SSTs instead of 30-31C is still very warm.
Michael was even in cooler waters than that weh it became a Cat 5.

[PDKlikatino]

Is it just me or did the curving in the track get significantly less pronounced in the latest update? If that's the case, Milton may have already made his northeast turn.

[Steve H.]

Yes. Deeper convection is now rebuilding around the center now. Maybe he will regain some of his swagger when he gets to the warm eddy.

[tulum07]

By overachieving, Milton has caused complacency. Now people are saying it is "only" a C3. Maybe Milton will come back and bite them in the butt.

[drewschmaltz]

Are you predicting significant strengthening then? What if nothing happens?

I don't think it will be significant since he is over cooler water and the geomagnetic index is dropping.
Maybe just holds its own or slight strengthening.

Unfortunately that's why some are getting frustrated with these predictions. It might be a valid theory, but one cannot ignore effects when it doesn't happen, and confirm it when it does. I am worried we've strayed too far into hocus pocus here rather than rigorous scientific observation. I think it's interesting to observe, but there is no proof of causation.

Yet another question on this got me researching... Let's use some good old fashion logic. Forget any stigmas for this exercise.

Do the properties in ocean water affect a hurricane?
Yes - proven
Do hurricanes affect ocean water?
Yes - proven
Do the properties in the lower atmosphere affect hurricanes?
Yes - proven
Do hurricanes affect the lower atmosphere?
Yes - proven
Do the properties in the upper atmosphere affect hurricanes?
Yes - proven
Do hurricanes affect the upper atmosphere
Yes - proven
Do the properties in the ionosphere affect hurricanes?
Debate, frustration, doubt - unproven
Do hurricanes affect the ionosphere?
Yes - proven

Do you see how exceedingly unlikely it is that there isn't a relationship? Can you imagine the enormous waste that would go into trying to study this due to its extreme unlikelihood and unpredictable nature?

Also... Let's admin that the controversy around voices like suspcious0bservers (and the similar) and bleeding into the opinions of space weather?

Space weather is very real without the sensationalism.

Telegraphs caught on fire, lol

[b0tzy29]

The last half hour on the Longwave IR looks like a quickly strengthening hurricane to me...Eye is clearing out now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks to be slightly north of the forecast track in the last few hours. Very difficult to say how much is just random wobbling though.

https://i.imgur.com/wkSnEoo.png

I pointed it out earlier but don't think I saw much discussion on it. That will matter if it continues over the next 12 hours.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

i dont think they should be optimistic about any of that as its just one model. People who are leaving may change their mind

Tho I will say based on Traffic, 80% of people that wanted to leave probably left already.

[SouthFLTropics]

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it sure looks like Milton is losing some latitude over the past few frames.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

As an example

My boss is saying its weakened and it wasnt gonna be that big of a deal. I stopped him dead in his tracks. To what? A Category 4? People have no perspective


Nobody was predicting 185mph winds at landfall and none of the evacuations are based on that

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[tolakram]

I don't think it will be significant since he is over cooler water and the geomagnetic index is dropping.
Maybe just holds its own or slight strengthening.

Unfortunately that's why some are getting frustrated with these predictions. It might be a valid theory, but one cannot ignore effects when it doesn't happen, and confirm it when it does. I am worried we've strayed too far into hocus pocus here rather than rigorous scientific observation. I think it's interesting to observe, but there is no proof of causation.

Yet another question on this got me researching... Let's use some good old fashion logic. Forget any stigmas for this exercise.

Do the properties in ocean water affect a hurricane?
Yes - proven
Do hurricanes affect ocean water?
Yes - proven
Do the properties in the lower atmosphere affect hurricanes?
Yes - proven
Do hurricanes affect the lower atmosphere?
Yes - proven
Do the properties in the upper atmosphere affect hurricanes?
Yes - proven
Do hurricanes affect the upper atmosphere
Yes - proven
Do the properties in the ionosphere affect hurricanes?
Debate, frustration, doubt - unproven
Do hurricanes affect the ionosphere?
Yes - proven

Do you see how exceedingly unlikely it is that there isn't a relationship? Can you imagine the enormous waste that would go into trying to study this due to its extreme unlikelihood and unpredictable nature?

Also... Let's admin that the controversy around voices like suspcious0bservers (and the similar) and bleeding into the opinions of space weather?

Space weather is very real without the sensationalism.

Telegraphs caught on fire, lol

What has this got to do with rigorous testing of a theory? Milton is strengthening, there's a solar storm, Milton RI's. Did space weather have any influence over it? The only correct answer is UNKNOWN. Record it, put it in the data, keep going. It's the conclusion that's the problem, and if conclusions are being drawn based on correlation then it's junk science. It's not a junk theory, it's very real, but also very hard to test.