drewschmaltz wrote:tolakram wrote:GCANE wrote:
I don't think it will be significant since he is over cooler water and the geomagnetic index is dropping.
Maybe just holds its own or slight strengthening.
Unfortunately that's why some are getting frustrated with these predictions. It might be a valid theory, but one cannot ignore effects when it doesn't happen, and confirm it when it does. I am worried we've strayed too far into hocus pocus here rather than rigorous scientific observation. I think it's interesting to observe, but there is no proof of causation.
Yet another question on this got me researching... Let's use some good old fashion logic. Forget any stigmas for this exercise.
Do the properties in ocean water affect a hurricane?
Yes - proven
Do hurricanes affect ocean water?
Yes - proven
Do the properties in the lower atmosphere affect hurricanes?
Yes - proven
Do hurricanes affect the lower atmosphere?
Yes - proven
Do the properties in the upper atmosphere affect hurricanes?
Yes - proven
Do hurricanes affect the upper atmosphere
Yes - proven
Do the properties in the ionosphere affect hurricanes?
Debate, frustration, doubt - unproven
Do hurricanes affect the ionosphere?
Yes - proven
Do you see how exceedingly unlikely it is that there isn't a relationship? Can you imagine the enormous waste that would go into trying to study this due to its extreme unlikelihood and unpredictable nature?
Also... Let's admin that the controversy around voices like suspcious0bservers (and the similar) and bleeding into the opinions of space weather?
Space weather is very real without the sensationalism.
Telegraphs caught on fire, lol
What has this got to do with rigorous testing of a theory? Milton is strengthening, there's a solar storm, Milton RI's. Did space weather have any influence over it? The only correct answer is UNKNOWN. Record it, put it in the data, keep going. It's the conclusion that's the problem, and if conclusions are being drawn based on correlation then it's junk science. It's not a junk theory, it's very real, but also very hard to test.
