ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Core keeps punching thru the tropopause, well into the stratosphere.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[sicktght311]

People need to continue to put this stuff into perspective. So many people on here and in the media are all celebrating "oh its going to weaken before landfall", which is all well and good, if this was a category 1 or 2 now and then weakening to TS. This is one of the strongest TCs on record, and even moderate weakening before landfall will still have devastating consequences. If this was a Category 3 from start to finish, people would and still should be sounding the alarms. Dont count yourselves safe just because a historic category 5 *might* weaken slightly. It might not even weaken that much at all

Also, people need to stop watching pressures and wind speeds of each Hurricane Hunter run and start sounding all clears. Watch the pressure, watch the wind, but also pay attention to IR. He's wrapping up and deepening around the eye again as we speak, so theres no chance hes done putting on his show yet

[TallyTracker]

This is just crazy.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1843676628401918239

And we’re only 8 DAYS into October. More ACE in 8 days than in all of August and September COMBINED…that is mind blowing…

[eastcoastFL]

Inland flooding from Helene was well forecast, including news outlets saying it would rival the 1916 flood in the Appalachians. I also have seen warnings up for Milton for inland low lying areas, including graphics showing the extreme flash flooding risk in and around Orlando. I am sure my brother is about to live on a small island because of all the ponds in his subdivision.

The fact that there are people who said “if I’d only known” is an important indicator that the messaging isn’t getting to a lot of people who need it, and that should be a top policy priority to sort out.

I'm in the camp that people who are blindsided just aren't paying attention. They don'tdo their homework and probably wait until last minute to prepare...just my opinion.

It is just complacency. News is often overzealous with headlines and alerts to begin with... They are journalists and just want an attention grabbing narrative. But also: being in the risk zone for at least one storm year after year and having nothing happen for decades can do that. The vibe in St.Pete is significantly different than Helene (fewer people saying "it's nothing" and more evacuating. Same in Fort Myers after Ian. I was there for both and saw attitudes change immediately.

For myself it always boils down to a risk vs reward. When it comes to protecting my family there’s no risk that I’m willing to accept because I can’t afford to be wrong. So if life threatening flooding or wind is forecast for my area I’m out. I don’t care if we have to drive 12 hours away and sleep in the car or on the beach, we’re not staying.

[Highteeld]

Remember all the complaints just 3 weeks ago saying this season was a total bust?

[cheezyWXguy]

It would appear to be back at cat 5 intensity once again...

Probably not yet, sfmr alone won’t justify it. Would likely need FL winds above 150kt to seal the deal and we haven’t seen 140kt yet. Think it’ll come though

[Highteeld]

It would appear to be back at cat 5 intensity once again...

Probably not yet, sfmr alone won’t justify it. Would likely need FL winds above 150kt to seal the deal and we haven’t seen 140kt yet. Think it’ll come though

I think with the rapid improvement on satellite pulling the trigger would make sense. Pressure is trending down again too. JMO

[mpic]

People need to continue to put this stuff into perspective. So many people on here and in the media are all celebrating "oh its going to weaken before landfall", which is all well and good, if this was a category 1 or 2 now and then weakening to TS. This is one of the strongest TCs on record, and even moderate weakening before landfall will still have devastating consequences. If this was a Category 3 from start to finish, people would and still should be sounding the alarms. Dont count yourselves safe just because a historic category 5 *might* weaken slightly. It might not even weaken that much at all

Also, people need to stop watching pressures and wind speeds of each Hurricane Hunter run and start sounding all clears. Watch the pressure, watch the wind, but also pay attention to IR. He's wrapping up and deepening around the eye again as we speak, so theres no chance hes done putting on his show yet

This is the downside to hurricanes vs. tornadoes. We follow hurricanes for days while tornadoes pretty much pop up almost spontaneously and people scramble to get to safety. I guess it depends on the person'sunderstanding in the end.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1843678570943762865

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1843678570943762865

Is Brian using a distant radar presentation of the MLC to determine position?

[HurricaneBelle]

Made it to Tallahassee, evacuating via US 19 was smooth, only took about 30 minutes longer than normal because there were backups at the traffic lights in the small towns.

Now to kill time waiting for my hotel room to be ready.

[chaser1]

Call me crazy but I'm seeing a distinct jog to the southeast

[xironman]

All that **** is over my head, so I only look at the observations and listen to people saying watch out for this or that. But if Milton deepens again early to mid afternoon which isn't typically a time of deepening, there could be some credence. There's also the loop current. But I'm still going to watch it.

I'm not really understanding the correlation between space weather and Hurricanes, but...

There were Aurora seen all the way into Mississippi and Alabama last night, which has been generally rare outside of our current solar cycle.

I got mocked a few months back but there is plenty of evidence Hurricanes are a solar driven phenomenon. They see them on other planets. Similar systems are on Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, Titan, Mars...ofc the fluid dynamics are different

Anyway here is some science
https://www.wqad.com/article/weather/as ... ic%20ocean.

Of course people believe the current science will say whatever and mock it but the key question that is being asked, why does every low pressure not turn into a system when conditions are optimal. The answers are obvouisly all hypotheticals. Things just need to line up like a recipe for the right hit. There is absolutely a link but we just dont have the science to measure it.

Contra indicative of the current environment, we are at a solar max

Likewise, when the solar cycle and sunspots reached a minimum, the atmosphere became more unstable and more supportive of hurricanes.

[Stormgodess]

Look I understand people defending the research done on Florida contraflow. And them choosing not to use it. But how long ago was that research done?

Because this is so heartbreaking and frustrating to see

 https://x.com/CB_StormChasing/status/1843678449766113704



 https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1843420928220299640

[mpic]

Made it to Tallahassee, evacuating via US 19 was smooth, only took about 30 minutes longer than normal because there were backups at the traffic lights in the small towns.

Now to kill time waiting for my hotel room to be ready.

Glad you are safe!

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1843678570943762865

Is Brian using a distant radar presentation of the MLC to determine position?

Not sure but these wobbles will sure matter as it nears FL which not even the NHC can predict with great accuracy coming at this angle in my opinion.

[underthwx]

People need to continue to put this stuff into perspective. So many people on here and in the media are all celebrating "oh its going to weaken before landfall", which is all well and good, if this was a category 1 or 2 now and then weakening to TS. This is one of the strongest TCs on record, and even moderate weakening before landfall will still have devastating consequences. If this was a Category 3 from start to finish, people would and still should be sounding the alarms. Dont count yourselves safe just because a historic category 5 *might* weaken slightly. It might not even weaken that much at all

Also, people need to stop watching pressures and wind speeds of each Hurricane Hunter run and start sounding all clears. Watch the pressure, watch the wind, but also pay attention to IR. He's wrapping up and deepening around the eye again as we speak, so theres no chance hes done putting on his show yet

I haven't detected an atmosphere of all clear....either here...or with the NHC....as for the media....I dont watch....my information that I pay attention to...is fact based....and yes...Milton is a dangerous cyclone to say the least....and as a result....residents are heeding warnings and leaving the areas that are most vulnerable to Milton's fury.....please accept my comment as respectful to you....peace....

[chaser1]

On another note, one can see the Westward approaching upper level wind surge. This could begin to weaken the storm earlier than expected if it doesn't begin a more brisk eastward motion so to somewhat negate the full effects.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Remember all the complaints just 3 weeks ago saying this season was a total bust?

Yeah and I was specifically gloating on here about Tampa not getting hit by Helene and how Tampabro's were undefeated.

I still hold out hope the Tampa Forcefield will activate but I feel like i may have disturbed the universe with that comment

[Horn1991]

The system seems to be rapidly intensifying now in the short term. I am honestly expecting it to return to cat 5 strength based on its current organization.

Yes, appears that the eye is starting clear out pretty nicely.