ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

All these experts who are saying this is different, as if we're actually better at intensity forecasts is interesting, to put it respectfully.

HARVEY, different setup, similar conclusion.

An upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico appears to be weakening, and as this
happens Harvey should end up in a low shear environment. This
should allow strengthening over deep warm water in the western Gulf
of Mexico. The new intensity forecast is adjusted slightly to show
Harvey explicitly becoming a hurricane in 48 h, and some additional
strengthening could occur between the 48 h point and landfall.
After landfall, Harvey is expected to weaken. However, the
forecast track keeps the system close enough to the Texas coast
that this weakening is likely to be slower than normal.

- snip -

INIT 24/0300Z 21.9N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 22.8N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 24.1N 94.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 25.4N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 26.6N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

BERYL has less time, and hopefully won't take advantage of low shear conditions like HARVEY did.

Beryl remains in an area of about 15 kt of southerly vertical
shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air
over the southern semicircle of the cyclone. This combination
suggests the possibility that the current convective burst will
weaken later today. After 24 h, the shear is forecast to diminish,
and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that significant
strengthening should occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast
shows only modest strengthening during the first 24 h, followed by
intensification to hurricane strength before landfall in Texas.
The peak intensity is based on the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B
guidance. After landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with
the system forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure area by
120 h.

- snip -

INIT 06/1500Z 23.0N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.7N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.9N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 26.2N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 27.7N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 29.3N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

[ROCK]

Love the Harvey SAT from back in the day. It went from crap to cat 4 stalling at the coast. lol…

[mpic]

Relatives who live in an RV at Port Aransas have until 3pm tomorrow to pull out. They are ready to that. The problem is, do they come here to Conroe or should they go someplace west? Don't want them to wait too long so they end up driving in winds, but don't want them to drive exactly where the storm might come. Forecasts among mets here seem to be all over the place right now. How long do you think it will be before a Houston landfall or a more eastern track can be ruled out?

[LARanger]

However, with the state Beryl is, it's just difficult to see it come close to where it was. Not impossible, but not worth sensationalizing yet. The OHC, temps, and moisture are still not conducive to *extreme* rapid intensification ala Harvey or East Caribbean Beryl. A lower-end hurricane is nevertheless plausible.

(Deletes draft of post with -removed- of Beryl becoming Category Eleventy-Six ȕber-cane as it drains the Gulf completely, followed by it drilling into the Earth as it transitions into a tropical hypermagmacane tapping power directly from the Earth's molten core before setting its sights on Jupiter, then the Sun, then the universe)

You're no fun. Wah.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

beryl is about to go over some 93 octane water, i see some RI in the future

None of the models or pro mets think this.

[Frank P]

She is looking pretty crappy the last hour of so via the VIS and IR sat loops... she must be ingesting the dry air that was off to the west of her

[xtyphooncyclonex]

However, with the state Beryl is, it's just difficult to see it come close to where it was. Not impossible, but not worth sensationalizing yet. The OHC, temps, and moisture are still not conducive to *extreme* rapid intensification ala Harvey or East Caribbean Beryl. A lower-end hurricane is nevertheless plausible.

(Deletes draft of post with -removed- of Beryl becoming Category Eleventy-Six ȕber-cane as it drains the Gulf completely, followed by it drilling into the Earth as it transitions into a tropical hypermagmacane tapping power directly from the Earth's molten core before setting its sights on Jupiter, then the Sun, then the universe)

You're no fun. Wah.

You're no met... so you should go further

On a more serious note: Don't get me wrong... It *can* happen, but when you're a met with the presence and stature of Ryan Maue, I think we gotta be careful with analogizing systems --- we know what Harvey did. He could have added a disclaimer or explanation below his original tweet or on it itself because people may take his word and panic.

[Pipelines182]

She is looking pretty crappy the last hour of so via the VIS and IR sat loops... she must be ingesting the dry air that was off to the west of her

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GvMFfYf/aa4f4468-7a5a-41c3-a622-9c8a0bd8853a.jpg [/url]

Definitely dry air, the feathery cirrus clouds streaming off the south end indicate dry air is in the CDO, collapsing thunderstorms.

[IcyTundra]

I'm thinking Claudette from 2003 is a good analog for Beryl. Claudette was a strong cat 1 hurricane that hit the Central Texas Coast in July 2003 and packed a pretty good punch.

[Nimbus]

She is looking pretty crappy the last hour of so via the VIS and IR sat loops... she must be ingesting the dry air that was off to the west of her

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GvMFfYf/aa4f4468-7a5a-41c3-a622-9c8a0bd8853a.jpg [/url]

That and she has a large shallow pressure gradient that takes longer to spin back up.
Last VDM showed 1001 MB at the center with kind of a shallow surface pressure profile.
48 hours till landfall and plenty of recon flights, so we will know when intensification begins again.

[Horn1991]

I'm thinking Claudette from 2003 is a good analog for Beryl. Claudette was a strong cat 1 hurricane that hit the Central Texas Coast in July 2003 and packed a pretty good punch.

Claudette was the perfect storm (at least in the Pearland area).
Good rains, gusty winds and no damage or loss of power.

[aspen]

She is looking pretty crappy the last hour of so via the VIS and IR sat loops... she must be ingesting the dry air that was off to the west of her

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GvMFfYf/aa4f4468-7a5a-41c3-a622-9c8a0bd8853a.jpg [/url]

That and she has a large shallow pressure gradient that takes longer to spin back up.
Last VDM showed 1001 MB at the center with kind of a shallow surface pressure profile.
48 hours till landfall and plenty of recon flights, so we will know when intensification begins again.

More like 36 hours I think. Models seem to be concentrating on a Monday morning landfall.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Earlier today Beryl wrapped some dry air into the east side of the storm and it has been trying to wrap t'storms around to wall the center off but has not succeeded yet. This takes time and does not happen very quickly. Might take another 12-24 hrs before it can take full advantage of any of the good conditions ahead.

[loon]

Pretty cold tops starting up in the center now

[Frank P]

Latest comments on Beryl per Dr. Levi Cowan

[IcyTundra]

She is looking pretty crappy the last hour of so via the VIS and IR sat loops... she must be ingesting the dry air that was off to the west of her

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GvMFfYf/aa4f4468-7a5a-41c3-a622-9c8a0bd8853a.jpg [/url]

That and she has a large shallow pressure gradient that takes longer to spin back up.
Last VDM showed 1001 MB at the center with kind of a shallow surface pressure profile.
48 hours till landfall and plenty of recon flights, so we will know when intensification begins again.

More like 36 hours I think. Models seem to be concentrating on a Monday morning landfall.

NHC has landfall around 7 AM CDT Monday morning so that would be about 41 hours until landfall according to NHC. Add a couple of hours onto that if it ends being a little further east of the NHC or subtract if it is further south and west of the NHC forecast.

[Nimbus]

That and she has a large shallow pressure gradient that takes longer to spin back up.
Last VDM showed 1001 MB at the center with kind of a shallow surface pressure profile.
48 hours till landfall and plenty of recon flights, so we will know when intensification begins again.

More like 36 hours I think. Models seem to be concentrating on a Monday morning landfall.

NHC has landfall around 7 AM CDT Monday morning so that would be about 41 hours until landfall according to NHC. Add a couple of hours onto that if it ends being a little further east of the NHC or subtract if it is further south and west of the NHC forecast.

And don't forget the rain forecast for San Antonio, Levi mentioned a possible slow down late in the forecast.

[al78]

When it comes to Harvey comparisons regarding large underforecasting of rapid intensification, I get that. I am aware that intensity forecasing is a lot harder than track forecasting and there is much we don't know. You don't have to go back to 2017, look at Otis last year which was the biggest forecast bust I have ever seen and at the worst possible time shortly before landfall in a heavily populated area. I still think Beryl isn't the same as these primarily because of the land passage and disruption of the hurricane core, so whilst I acknowledge large underestimates in storm intensity have happened in the past, I think the probability Beryl will surprise us again is not impossible, but very low. The NHC forecast of a cat 1, maybe a low end cat 2 looks like a good bet to me, it all depends on how quickly Beryl can reorganise its core and fight off the dry air.

I should add a disclaimer that my knowledge of tropical cyclones does not extend to the day-to-day forecasting, my views here are based on fundamentals combined with many years of tracking storms, recollection of how storms typically react to crossing land and/or sub-optimal atmospheric conditions and some memory of previous rapid intensification scenarios.

[Teban54]

Despite the obvious dry air intrusion, it does seem to me that the LLC and MLC are much better stacked now compared to this morning.

[HurricaneBrain]

Seems like she is starting the NW motion now.