ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Xyls]

What direction is Milton actually going right now as doesn't appear to be much of a northern component at this time.

[Highteeld]

Upgrade looks reasonable to me

[Woofde]

This is going to be one of the most intense nail biter storms I think I've ever seen. Not only will exact track be crucial for Tampa's surge prospects, but we also have to watch for exactly when the wind shear impinges and weakens the storm. In the worst case scenario Milton maintains strength until landfall, and comes in just North of Tampa. In that situation things would be absolutely dire. In the reverse case if it weakens a bit earlier than expected and comes in South, there will still be lots of severe impacts to someone, but a Katrina level catastrophe would be avoided.

I don't envy emergency planners and disaster responses teams here. There's already too much devastation just to the North.

[tolakram]

What direction is Milton actually going right now as doesn't appear to be much of a northern component at this time.

Should be near due east for a little while longer, then a turn toward the NE.

[Beef Stew]

With that pass, a blend of FL winds and SFMR would suggest an intensity of 135 kts/155 mph.

[Sailingtime]

Remember all the complaints just 3 weeks ago saying this season was a total bust?

Don't think anyone who lives along the coastal areas would ever say that. Oh, for sure, the storms are fun to track but to be honest, when a storm is coming in over your house, you really are not even concerned about the records or what the latest drop sounding shows. It becomes all too real when you live in an impacted area. The season was very "slow" which was fantastic. We all know, all too well that mother nature does what mother nature does. Hang tight and stay safe Florida!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[Sciencerocks]

165600 2225N 08811W 6952 02602 9389 +130 +098 211110 129 143 023 00
165630 2224N 08810W 6972 02641 9480 +104 +102 211141 145 142 026 00
165700 2223N 08809W 6966 02700 9541 +097 +078 212143 145 133 052 00

145 knts flight level = 130.5 knts with 143 knt smrf. I'd mix these and get 135 knts. Closing on cat5 again.

[drewschmaltz]

Due to the steering we've heard stronger north. Pretty cool if you think about what we saw in the short term. Storm weakened and it dipped south. Strengthening now and leveling out. May or may not be what's really happened. But, if it is, it goes to show how and why the longer range forecasts are moving north and south. So, if we see a deepening beyond forecast I think the track will start lifting N again. Maybe?

[cheezyWXguy]

Easy 135kt justification. NHC’s handling of Laura, Ida, Ian, and even Michael at their peaks suggests to me they will not pull the trigger yet. I could be wrong though, but I suspect they will not pull the trigger until 150kt+ FL winds are found

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Eyedrop
850mb is back to saturation.
No sign of a forthcoming EWRC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-1530.png

Is the eye drying out at that level usually a good indicator of an EWRC coming?

[Travorum]

145 kt FL and 143 kt SFMR. Cat 5 again? Or at the very least, 135 kt.

We'd probably have to see at least 150kt FL winds with that SFMR before NHC would put it at 140kts, but this is definitive evidence for 135kt imo. Should the IR appearance continue to improve the next recon flight will almost definitely find winds to support Cat 5.

[Highteeld]

Getting close to hitting T 7.0. Probably there within a couple hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

Visible is looking stellar with that rapidly clearing, perfectly round eye and the new cirrus canopy expanding radially from the eyewall. Almost literally like watching an engine rev up. Unless there’s a hiccup this will likely be a cat5 again in short time.

[GCANE]

Eyedrop
850mb is back to saturation.
No sign of a forthcoming EWRC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-1530.png

Is the eye drying out at that level usually a good indicator of an EWRC coming?

Yes
I have the link to the paper at home.
I'll try and dig it up later.

[Teban54]

That's quite a comeback. Milton certainly wants to get back to the top echelon of hurricanes yet again, even if not necessarily sub-900.

[TallyTracker]

I’d say 150-155 mph is justified with that recon data. 150 -155 kts flight level winds are gonna be needed for an upgrade likely.

Is shoaling an issue for SFMR in this area due to the shallow ocean?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TTrogdon/status/1843703401663869155

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Eyedrop
850mb is back to saturation.
No sign of a forthcoming EWRC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-1530.png

Is the eye drying out at that level usually a good indicator of an EWRC coming?

Yes
I have the link to the paper at home.
I'll try and dig it up later.

Appreciate it! Makes some sense. Also curious what values need to be in the "moat" around the eye.

[GCANE]

Area of max ionospheric heating underway.

DISCLAIMER:
There is no published, mainstream scientific proof that hurricane intensification is directly related to ionospheric heating.
I am just pointing out the strong correlation for the past three days.