ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

AF303 Mission #16 into MILTON is underway - leaving Keesler AFB now.

The plot on Tropical Tidbits for it glitched, so it looks like it just teleported to Louisiana from the Galapagos lol

[cycloneye]

Plane is taxing to then depart.

[KC7NEC]

I was wondering if I could get some advice, as I have never flown during a hurricane before. My current flight is 2:45pm Thursday departing Chicago to Fort Lauderdale. With how landfall keeps getting pushed back, I'm starting to wonder if that flight will even happen. I'm wondering if I should change the flight to 7am on Friday. Or, I could do a 6:40am Thursday flight with a stop in ATL on the way to Ft Lauderdale. What would you suggest? Thank you.

They will fly around the storm, with no issues. Winds may be slightly elevated in FLL but i wouldnt expect the airport to close. There may be a delay in your flight or many flights as they are having to deviate around the storm.

In 2005, I flew from FLL to Houston about 9 hours before Katrina made landfall.

The main issue you should watch for is whether planes will be where they need to be. Airlines will likely reposition aircraft to avoid the storm, which can cause a ripple effect of delays and cancellations. This could impact your flight even if the weather isn’t severe in your area. Keep a close eye on your flight status and the flights leading up to yours using FlightAware or your airline’s tracking tools. I’d be surprised if the schedule doesn’t see some disruptions, so stay flexible and plan ahead.

[TallyTracker]

Stupid frontal low...

https://i.imgur.com/3ha8ksc.gif

The most powerful “frontal low” on record…

On a real note, Milton looks to be bombing again…

[tropicwatch]

Plane is taxing to then depart.

This if funny. Recon Data point in the south Pacific.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This round of intensification isn't surprising. And not to knock the NHC, because they have done an absolutely phenomenal job with both messaging and especially doing an incredible job on track (so far), but I am surprised they backed off showing the system re-obtaining Category 5 status and just staying 130 knots for the next 12 hours. This was not supported much by the environment and has downstream implications on landfall intensity.

[TomballEd]

At the risk of tempting fate...Tampa's escape from catastrophe is for the track to tick south. I think it finds a way to happen

My sense with the little wobbles S of E earlier Tampa might not get the worst, but they can't take a chance on it missing Tampa directly, the stakes are just too high. CIMSS ADT is 143 knots, and the eye is almost as warm as yesterday, though a bit larger. Forecast sounding a bit N of the center (used the GFS, but I suspect this holds) has 80 to 90 knot winds just above the surface, so even if Tampa misses the worst, they're still getting slammed.

[Kingarabian]

WMG eye. On its way to a T7.5 once again.

[Steve]

Stupid frontal low...

https://i.imgur.com/3ha8ksc.gif

The most powerful “frontal low” on record…

On a real note, Milton looks to be bombing again…

Also looks to be gaining some latitude now.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[cycloneye]

AF plane has departed.

URNT15 KNHC 081920
AF303 1614A MILTON HDOB 03 20241008
191230 3025N 08855W 9946 00118 0080 +253 +123 020007 008 /// /// 03
191300 3026N 08854W 9742 00295 0075 +234 +110 017009 010 /// /// 03
191330 3027N 08854W 9482 00537 0085 +213 +106 018009 011 /// /// 03
191400 3026N 08856W 9349 00657 0085 +200 +107 020008 009 /// /// 03
191430 3025N 08857W 9054 00928 0079 +183 +098 021006 009 /// /// 03
191500 3023N 08858W 8784 01190 0082 +168 +100 355002 003 /// /// 03
191530 3022N 08859W 8542 01428 0086 +148 +092 348003 004 /// /// 03
191600 3020N 08900W 8307 01665 0089 +134 +063 351006 008 /// /// 03
191630 3018N 08901W 8143 01838 0084 +140 -051 041011 012 /// /// 03
191700 3017N 08902W 7919 02071 0083 +125 -060 076012 012 /// /// 03
191730 3015N 08903W 7725 02280 0085 +112 -071 066009 011 /// /// 03
191800 3013N 08905W 7550 02474 0076 +111 -077 059009 009 /// /// 03
191830 3012N 08906W 7391 02649 0071 +105 -085 041009 009 /// /// 03
191900 3010N 08907W 7234 02828 0071 +094 -091 028008 009 /// /// 03
191930 3008N 08908W 7097 02986 0070 +087 -106 004011 013 /// /// 03
192000 3006N 08909W 6975 03132 0066 +080 -120 004015 016 /// /// 03
192030 3004N 08910W 6857 03271 0061 +077 -168 030015 016 /// /// 03
192100 3003N 08912W 6729 03427 0056 +072 -203 033014 015 /// /// 03
192130 3001N 08913W 6599 03588 0055 +064 -195 026013 014 /// /// 03
192200 2959N 08914W 6495 03716 0052 +055 -187 021013 014 /// /// 03
$$

[LAwxrgal]

How many storms in this area of the gulf have gone to the right of the forecast track at landfall due to trough interaction? And not just in Florida, either.

[Highteeld]

T 7.5

[xironman]

Not that far from a Izzy like presentation

[Zonacane]

Any bets on what recon finds? I’m going with 905mb 150 Knots

[Mike33534]

At what point does tampa/st pete be out of the cone? or won't they do that? this is the 18zs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_18z.png

[MississippiWx]

Recon may actually sample while Milton reaches his second peak. The eye can still warm a good bit more, but structurally Milton is looking nearly perfect again.

[dhweather]

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1843726594277552219

Ryan Maue says T 7.5

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF plane has departed.

URNT15 KNHC 081920
AF303 1614A MILTON HDOB 03 20241008
191230 3025N 08855W 9946 00118 0080 +253 +123 020007 008 /// /// 03
191300 3026N 08854W 9742 00295 0075 +234 +110 017009 010 /// /// 03
191330 3027N 08854W 9482 00537 0085 +213 +106 018009 011 /// /// 03
191400 3026N 08856W 9349 00657 0085 +200 +107 020008 009 /// /// 03
191430 3025N 08857W 9054 00928 0079 +183 +098 021006 009 /// /// 03
191500 3023N 08858W 8784 01190 0082 +168 +100 355002 003 /// /// 03
191530 3022N 08859W 8542 01428 0086 +148 +092 348003 004 /// /// 03
191600 3020N 08900W 8307 01665 0089 +134 +063 351006 008 /// /// 03
191630 3018N 08901W 8143 01838 0084 +140 -051 041011 012 /// /// 03
191700 3017N 08902W 7919 02071 0083 +125 -060 076012 012 /// /// 03
191730 3015N 08903W 7725 02280 0085 +112 -071 066009 011 /// /// 03
191800 3013N 08905W 7550 02474 0076 +111 -077 059009 009 /// /// 03
191830 3012N 08906W 7391 02649 0071 +105 -085 041009 009 /// /// 03
191900 3010N 08907W 7234 02828 0071 +094 -091 028008 009 /// /// 03
191930 3008N 08908W 7097 02986 0070 +087 -106 004011 013 /// /// 03
192000 3006N 08909W 6975 03132 0066 +080 -120 004015 016 /// /// 03
192030 3004N 08910W 6857 03271 0061 +077 -168 030015 016 /// /// 03
192100 3003N 08912W 6729 03427 0056 +072 -203 033014 015 /// /// 03
192130 3001N 08913W 6599 03588 0055 +064 -195 026013 014 /// /// 03
192200 2959N 08914W 6495 03716 0052 +055 -187 021013 014 /// /// 03
$$

They are a little late in getting up, so we won't see a pass until after the 5pm advisory comes.

[aspen]

Any bets on what recon finds? I’m going with 905mb 150 Knots

915-910mb just to be conservative, dropping into the low 900s as the mission progresses.

[Mike33534]

At what point does tampa/st pete be out of the cone? or won't they do that? this is the 18zs
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_18z.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_18z.png

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