ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Any bets on what recon finds? I’m going with 905mb 150 Knots

161 kt FL and 908.3 extrap

[chaser1]

Plotted 4:00am 12 & 24 hr forecast points to refer to while only having spare moments to peek at what Milton is up to. Um, the storm shot south and east of its 18Z forecast point. There's a distinction between a wobble and forward motion. Would one better define the distinction by time (hours) or by distance traveled (miles)? That's not meant to be a rhetorical question btw.

[CronkPSU]

At what point does tampa/st pete be out of the cone? or won't they do that? this is the 18zs
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_18z.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_18z.png

one set of models won't make a huge shift plus we are still 36 hours out so a fairly wide cone still...we'll see if it is a trend of just a one off

[Highteeld]

I'd be willing to bet Recon finds sfc winds close to 160 knots in Milton. We're getting close to yesterday's peak RIGHT NOW.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Any bets on what recon finds? I’m going with 905mb 150 Knots

915-910mb just to be conservative, dropping into the low 900s as the mission progresses.

Going with 903mb by the end of the mission.

[WaveBreaking]

Textbook.

[Beef Stew]

Any bets on what recon finds? I’m going with 905mb 150 Knots

Guessing 914 and 145 kts at arrival

[tropicwatch]

A ship off of Cancun is reporting sustained 30mph winds out of the southwest. Definite expansion in wind field.

[Clearcloudz]

Any bets on what recon finds? I’m going with 905mb 150 Knots

899mb with 170MPH to 180MPH

[acidus]

This round of intensification isn't surprising. And not to knock the NHC, because they have done an absolutely phenomenal job with both messaging and especially doing an incredible job on track (so far), but I am surprised they backed off showing the system re-obtaining Category 5 status and just staying 130 knots for the next 12 hours. This was not supported much by the environment and has downstream implications on landfall intensity.

They’re doing a great job overall, but a week ago, the NHC didn’t expect this to become a major storm. So "absolutely phenomenal job" feels a bit much, especially now that we’re dealing with a near-record-setting Category 5 hurricane.

[USTropics]

I want to introduce some people to some of the amazing products that Tomer Burg has developed. For starters, I witnessed during Helene quite a few users were fixating on satellite imagery to estimate track. It's difficult to ascertain the low-level vortex when assessing storm position/motion using satellite imagery (even when we have a trackable eye, as the low-level vortex can still oscillate). This is an excellent product that has the super ensemble mean (GFS + UKMET + ECMWF + CMC ensembles) highlighted in blue. The official NHC track cone is also overlayed. What I want to focus on are the black dots—these are the VDM fixes by recon (which is our true center):


We can also look at the super blend with deterministic tracks and ensemble spread:


Superblend mean track verification:


We can also look at wind field based on recon:


You can find these products and much more here - http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/?storm=AL142024

[blueskies]

Contraflow really needs to be implemented in the Northern part of the state, with on lane south for Tankers and emergency vehicles. The traffic is a nightmare and gas stations empty

Actually our DOT did a very in depth study on this.

Contraflow actually made the traffic worse and obstructed necessary supplies coming into to the regions impacted for pre and post storm preparation.

Kudos to them for actually analyzing every storm since Andrew and validating the findings.

The locals will find surface roads off the Interstate to move on. May also be gas available there, since it won't be highly trafficked.

Florida is allowing driving on the left shoulder on I-75 and I-4 (no trucks or trailers).

Drove from St Pete area to Lakeland this morning. Mapping applications showed all major routes as green. I had made a guess that traffic might be better today than yesterday with all the media attention and general public being alerted. There was not much traffic on 275 all the way through Tampa this morning. In fact, less traffic than usual. Traffic trended a little bit heavier as traveled east on I -4, but moving briskly.

[ConvergenceZone]

Do you guys think there will be another EWRC before landfall?

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Would not be surprised to see this make another run for sub-900, hell even stronger then last night.

[Abdullah]

https://i.imgur.com/0QJMSrY.gif

Do hurricanes usually have no lightning in most of their CDO?
Only in the eyewall and outer bands? Or is this unusual?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This round of intensification isn't surprising. And not to knock the NHC, because they have done an absolutely phenomenal job with both messaging and especially doing an incredible job on track (so far), but I am surprised they backed off showing the system re-obtaining Category 5 status and just staying 130 knots for the next 12 hours. This was not supported much by the environment and has downstream implications on landfall intensity.

They’re doing a great job overall, but a week ago, the NHC didn’t expect this to become a major storm. So "absolutely phenomenal job" feels a bit much, especially now that we’re dealing with a near-record-setting Category 5 hurricane.

I didn't include intensity, that is always a weak point for them (by their own admission). But they have done a great job on track when the models have been all over the place, and messaging the seriousness of this situation to the media and local officials. I am just surprised they didn't seem to recognize that the environment was 100% capable of allowing Milton to reobtain Cat 5 status.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye temps climbing now, could very well be 150kt when recon gets there

[Abdullah]

Based on the speed of the reconnaissance plane, we should have our first center pass right before 5 PM, perfectly on time for the data to be used in the 5 PM advisory and discussion.

[Xyls]

So Milton has started the northward turn a little late of schedule. I see models are also suggesting slightly south of Tampa which makes sense all things considering unless there is a northern wobble at some point. Will this be enough to save Tampa from a north side landfall we shall see...