ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

At what point does tampa/st pete be out of the cone? or won't they do that? this is the 18zs
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_18z.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_18z.png

I think as long as any of those tracks are within 50 miles of the bay, There going to keep Tampa in the cone, We ain't leaving the cone even if it does slip south and make landfall, I think for one they don't want 500K pissed off residents trying to come back before the storm even gets here, and living here for over 20 years, They are going to be pissed that they left if there isn't significant damage, It's a really stupid thought process but I saw it with all the past storms that dodged us and then secondly they are afraid of leaving us out but just on the outer edge only for a slight shift to bring landfall here anyways.

Multiple 10 mile shifts south on the track and tampa bay and Orlando end up in much better shape while things go downhill for sw fl. I was wondering how tampa bay performs the Houdini escape route this time and that appears to be how it happens and I suspect there's a decent chance it does. I'm expecting a south shift at 5 ...but to be fair I expected one at 11 and it didn't happen.

[jlauderdal]

eye temperature is skyrocketing

Intensification is well underway, its going to make it a run at 905 or under. Then we look for the all important shear that is supposed to knock it back. Interesting to see the models coming south again, good for tampa bay, not good for bradenton south to fort myers

[Steve]

The amount of misinformation I'm seeing about this storm online is insane. Conspiracies of weather modification/HAARP, people are saying it's going to strengthen before landfall rather than weaken, etc. I would laugh but so many people in the comments believe it...

Haha. People are absolute idiots. People who distribute misinformation know this.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

https://x.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/18437 ... 77423?s=19

[Iknownothing]

With this next round of RI underway, is there a chance of Cat 5 at landfall?

No, it’s going to hit wind shear as it starts moving north, which should weaken it to a high-end Category 3 or possibly a low-end Category 4 before landfall. But don’t let that downgrade fool you—the storm surge threat remains just as dangerous. Even with reduced winds, the surge can cause catastrophic impacts along the coast. Focus on the surge risk, not just the category.

Could the likelihood of a high Cat 4 or low Cat 5 go up if it tracks further south?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2024 Time : 194020 UTC
Lat : 22:31:48 N Lon : 87:44:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 912.2mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.7 7.7

[Travorum]

1845z microwave:

[FLpanhandle91]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2024 Time : 194020 UTC
Lat : 22:31:48 N Lon : 87:44:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 912.2mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.7 7.7

Lord

[HurricaneAndre2008]

1845z microwave:

https://i.imgur.com/IdBbRzU.png

https://i.imgur.com/dwAgU5g.png

It's go time again.

[Tireman4]

The amount of misinformation I'm seeing about this storm online is insane. Conspiracies of weather modification/HAARP, people are saying it's going to strengthen before landfall rather than weaken, etc. I would laugh but so many people in the comments believe it...

Haha. People are absolute idiots. People who distribute misinformation know this.

Steve, it hurts my heart. My fear is that the folks that need to hear get out, find safety and take precautions might listen to the people who spread this.

[Travorum]

1845z microwave:

https://i.imgur.com/IdBbRzU.png

https://i.imgur.com/dwAgU5g.png

It's go time again.

Yeah, from that microwave pass it doesn't look like there's much in Milton's way to stop intensification for the near future.

[Highteeld]

back to crazy land i see. 160 knots looking very possible

[TomballEd]

NHC doesn't directly shift the cone. They shift the forecast path, and the error cone is fitted around it, smaller at shorter intervals, to reflect average error. So NHC doesn't really choose the cone, they choose the forecast and the cone chooses itself.

The longer E motion and the model means do suggest S of Tampa, but the potential danger is so high, everywhere even near the cone needs to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

[aspen]

At this rate there’s a chance we may see another sub-900 pass in a few hours. Milton looks even better than yesterday (partially because its eye is large enough to see without using a magnifying glass lol). Incredible stadium effect and hyper-clear eye.

[MOGSY31]

back to crazy land i see. 160 knots looking very possible

Not good
Some of my work people in Fort Myres are staying
We are 6mile from the coast and Ian’s surge never reached us

I think they are a little complacent

[dukeblue219]

https://i.imgur.com/0QJMSrY.gif

Do hurricanes usually have no lightning in most of their CDO?
Only in the eyewall and outer bands? Or is this unusual?

Hurricanes don't generally have much thunder and lightning because they lack the rapid vertical movement that generates the charge separation as ice crystals and rain droplets rub together. The eyewall of a powerful hurricane is a notable exception (and of course the eye itself has rising air but not inside a cloud).

[Highteeld]

Satellite imagery shows this storm is hitting the upper-echelon of what is possible in the Gulf of Mexico

[FLpanhandle91]

I think we flirt with 160kt this mission. Will be tough to get down into the 800s with an eye bigger than 10nm, but that warm eye is textbook for high wind speeds.

[SconnieCane]

At this rate there’s a chance we may see another sub-900 pass in a few hours. Milton looks even better than yesterday (partially because its eye is large enough to see without using a magnifying glass lol). Incredible stadium effect and hyper-clear eye.

Uh oh, he's setting the building on fire again.

[kevin]

Milton is looking incredible, easy T7.5 and perhaps even more. 897 mb might be a bit too much, but by the looks of it wind speeds could be 160+ kt.