ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mpic]

Cat 5 - 167mph

Is this a guess or did I miss it somewhere?

[chris_fit]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

Where's you're landfall point?

[psyclone]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

It's what we do. We escape at the last minute. We're good at it

[Highteeld]

eye temp is still rising

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

It's what we do. We escape at the last minute. We're good at it

can we wait for a few consistent model runs before we start saying this? Millions evacuated Tampa/St Pete. We are talking about a difference of what... 18 miles here on a storm that is 300 miles away. I want to jump for joy too but its just not true yet

[Gums]

More familiar with th ASW sondes, which normally activate upon submersion. So the NOAA ones measure and xmit on the way down?

[gailwarning]

Satellite imagery shows this storm is hitting the upper-echelon of what is possible in the Gulf of Mexico

At least what we THINK is possible... just have that uncomfortable feeling that Milton is saying "hold my beer."

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

It's what we do. We escape at the last minute. We're good at it

This will be an entirely new beast for Sarasota and Bradenton; they've avoided direct hits just as much as Tampa.

[Mike33534]

Another year, same thing heh, that's the real trend.

[ElectricStorm]

902.4 extrap!

155kt FL/153kt SFMR

[Lexicals]

St. Lucie County is officially included in the hurricane warnings now.

[Travorum]

AF303 1614A MILTON HDOB 14 20241008
210230 2241N 08731W 7014 02321 9101 +185 +148 338082 126 177 014 03
210300 2241N 08728W 6938 02372 9047 +226 +115 319034 055 059 004 03
210330 2242N 08727W 6957 02329 9024 +236 +106 318007 025 039 001 03
210400 2244N 08726W 6946 02360 9066 +199 +122 080021 025 043 003 00
210430 2245N 08725W 6985 02338 9100 +187 +130 094036 038 044 003 00
210500 2245N 08724W 6993 02302 9070 +198 +128 120034 038 050 000 03
210530 2243N 08723W 6957 02327 9026 +230 +112 170048 056 060 001 00
210600 2243N 08722W 6959 02346 9061 +205 +124 185080 091 115 000 00
210630 2242N 08720W 6942 02411 9141 +142 //// 193116 133 151 006 01
210700 2242N 08719W 6962 02532 //// +101 //// 194151 159 153 027 01
210730 2241N 08717W 6920 02692 //// +104 //// 192145 159 142 029 01
210800 2241N 08716W 6950 02740 //// +116 //// 193133 139 117 001 01
210830 2241N 08714W 6959 02792 //// +112 //// 194124 130 107 003 01
210900 2240N 08713W 6933 02859 //// +110 //// 194116 121 094 014 01
210930 2239N 08712W 6963 02846 9678 +111 //// 192109 111 088 005 01
211000 2239N 08711W 6942 02894 //// +103 //// 197104 108 085 005 01
211030 2238N 08710W 6954 02899 //// +099 //// 202100 102 080 006 01
211100 2237N 08710W 6946 02925 //// +098 //// 205094 099 075 008 01
211130 2236N 08709W 6955 02930 9768 +100 //// 206091 093 075 007 01
211200 2235N 08708W 6946 02950 9778 +105 //// 210091 091 070 006 01

902.4mb extrap / 159kt FL winds / 153kt SFMR

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

902.4 extrap!

155kt FL/153kt SFMR

Here we go again!!!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

902mb with 159 knot flight level winds.

Milton has gained almost all of its strength, and may even go below its prior value here in a few passes.

[FLLurker32]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

It's what we do. We escape at the last minute. We're good at it

can we wait for a few consistent model runs before we start saying this? Millions evacuated Tampa/St Pete. We are talking about a difference of what... 18 miles here on a storm that is 300 miles away. I want to jump for joy too but its just not true yet

Agreed. We were JUST noting how much this storm has wobbled over the last few days. The NHC cautioned the same in their latest forecast. Maybe consider it’s a bit premature to sigh relief?

[ConvergenceZone]

Storm surge danger shifting south now on this live map.

https://ibb.co/kGh61SL

[TomballEd]

More familiar with th ASW sondes, which normally activate upon submersion. So the NOAA ones measure and xmit on the way down?

Yes. OT, the NOAA plane is based on a Navy plane that drops ASW sondes. I was a passenger on an SH-3H that dipped for submarines because a Corsair pilot thought he saw a periscope. My friend from high school was an AWS operator.

GPS, temp, pressure, humidity, all the goodies on the dropsondes.

[aspen]

902.4MB extrap….holy crap this is about to go sub-900 again

[Nimbus]

NHC doesn't look like they changed very much, except now it would be just off the coast of Pinellas and Sarasota at 1am Thursday instead of 7pm on Wednesday.

5 PM NHC shifted the track south due to core mode wobbles that changed their model Suite tracks this run.
They think it may be just a "cycle" thing and not an upper air steering ridge change.
12Z GFS still looks on perfect track.

[caneman]

The last hour and a half it looks to have wobbled back North and left of track. Anyone else notice that?

Looks to have offset the ese motion. We'll see if it keeps up that way.