ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sbcc]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=vis

My goodness she is pretty!

... he

Unless its Uncle Miltie?

Oh never mind. No one remembers Milton Berle's alter ego.

[Hurricane2022]

Milton has stabilized at ~ 905 - 903 as per recon data

[Travorum]

NOAA2 1714A MILTON HDOB 08 20241008
220000 2310N 08703W 7523 02352 9849 +152 +156 125059 059 /// /// 05
220030 2308N 08704W 7513 02356 9839 +153 +154 124061 062 /// /// 05
220100 2306N 08705W 7518 02332 9820 +156 +145 120065 066 /// /// 03
220130 2304N 08706W 7513 02321 9802 +152 +158 121069 071 /// /// 05
220200 2303N 08707W 7500 02312 9777 +152 +162 119079 084 /// /// 05
220230 2301N 08708W 7513 02269 9740 +157 +164 120087 092 /// /// 05
220300 2259N 08709W 7500 02238 9681 +169 +160 118101 103 /// /// 03
220330 2258N 08710W 7512 02169 9614 +174 +169 114112 116 /// /// 03
220400 2256N 08711W 7503 02085 9513 +175 +179 112125 131 /// /// 05
220430 2254N 08712W 7476 01974 9369 +168 +183 109136 138 /// /// 05
220500 2253N 08713W 7447 01830 9172 +193 +190 104106 134 /// /// 05
220530 2251N 08713W 7529 01649 9045 +259 +194 108034 081 /// /// 03
220600 2249N 08714W 7524 01655 9035 +267 +196 270015 027 /// /// 03
220630 2247N 08715W 7507 01706 9072 +253 +196 283048 059 /// /// 03
220700 2245N 08716W 7529 01748 9162 +222 +189 295097 116 /// /// 03
220730 2244N 08716W 7527 01889 9324 +177 +192 295146 150 /// /// 05
220800 2242N 08717W 7581 01950 9456 +177 +194 301145 149 /// /// 05
220830 2241N 08718W 7600 02031 9572 +177 +194 302129 140 /// /// 05
220900 2239N 08719W 7523 02196 9664 +163 +190 304117 123 /// /// 05
220930 2238N 08720W 7521 02250 9723 +160 +179 298104 111 /// /// 05

903.5mb extrap (with 27kt FL winds) | 138kt FL NE | 150k FL SW

[DirtyDish]

Is it over the Loop current now or is that still to come?

[drewschmaltz]

I'm sure this exists but can't find it... NHC cone laid on a google (or similar) map. I'm going to ask chatGPT too. So, yeah.

Edit: https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/imagery/hur ... ne-tracker

Yeah.

[Soluna16]

Is it over the Loop current now or is that still to come?

In a few hours

[aspen]

Holding steady. Wondering if maybe recon missed another sub-900 peak (maybe 898-899mb) an hour before the first pass.

[Visioen]

We should have NOAA data from the NE eyewall and eye in 5 minutes or so, which should confirm if Milton is still intending or has leveled off.

I think it's leveled off. It's very rare for a storm to return to its former high end cat 5 strength after an eyewall replacement cycle. There should be another EWRC tonight I would think

It's even more rare for a cat 5 to move west to east in the atlantic. Just saying.

[weeniepatrol]

D. 908 mb
F. CLOSED
G. C10

Pinhole eye. I heard that before about Milton. Haven't you?

[cheezyWXguy]

Milton has stabilized at ~ 905 - 903 as per recon data

NOAA and AF planes may extrapolate differently, so we’ll need to wait for the dropsonde confirmation to be sure if it’s strengthening, maintaining, or weakening

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Passing through the Loop Current at DMAX? Oh brother.

[ColdFusion]

Is it over the Loop current now or is that still to come?

In a few hours

IMO - It is far from a given that some kind of strengthening is going occur over the loop current. We've all seen plenty of storm pass over that area without any significant change. It is already very strong and has plenty of hot water to work with. At best, I think it may slow the weakening caused by the atmospheric challenges that lie ahead.

[Pipelines182]

Passing through the Loop Current at DMAX? Oh brother.

DMAX is a non factor for organized cyclones, plus that’s not until tomorrow morning anyway

[MississippiWx]

Easy with the leveling-off claims. Two different planes sampled the center. We will know more when the Air Force plane makes its second pass here in the next 30 minutes.Pretty impressive to see 140kt winds in the NE quad when it's not the strongest quad currently.

[Zonacane]

Can’t help but notice a complete lack of a secondary wind max.

[Blown Away]

I think it's on the angle it will take to Florida which would be @Port Charlotte/Englewood...

[xironman]

Is it over the Loop current now or is that still to come?

In a few hours

IMO - It is far from a given that some kind of strengthening is going occur over the loop current. We've all seen plenty of storm pass over that area without any significant change. It is already very strong and has plenty of hot water to work with. At best, I think it may slow the weakening caused by the atmospheric challenges that lie ahead.

Going by SHIPS I don't really see any challenges until 6z

[TheBigO]

Can’t help but notice a complete lack of a secondary wind max.

What would that mean?

[jasons2k]

Can’t help but notice a complete lack of a secondary wind max.

What would that mean?

No eyewall replacement in the immediate future, so Milton theoretically has more time to strengthen.

[Travorum]

Can’t help but notice a complete lack of a secondary wind max.

What would that mean?

It means there is no outer eyewall developing right now, a secondary wind maximum would correlate with that outer eyewall. As it is Milton seems to have a band wrapping from the west around the south to the east, but that's pretty far out.