ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Every model seems to keep moving this shear zone a little bit further north at landfall. Levi even mentioned it in today's video. If that trend continues, it wont be good for anyone

This is what I was saying yesterday when everyone was claiming a Cat 3 landfall. Shear can change in a day, why speak in absolutes about weakening when there is a more than non-zero chance this thing could theoretically not weaken much at all?

I believe there will be weakening. It is very hard to maintain this kind of strength. I'm not positive is goes down to low cat 3. I'm thinking low cat4, but regardless, even if it is a low 3, the windfield will be much larger, and the surge is a cumulative action. It is pushing a tremendous amount of water, even now, and that water will continue to pile up all the way onshore. The water will be the biggest problem, not the wind.

[Xyls]

I think the next 24 hours are going to the most intense tracking of a hurricane since Katrina. I remember the lead up to that event and this is feeling very similar. The margin of error to avoid a major catastrophe in Tampa is getting smaller and smaller.

[Sciencerocks]

[MississippiWx]

904.3mb and 163kt on the old SFMR....

Safe to say the pressure has probably leveled off now, at least temporarily. We will see if another bout of intensification begins later when Milton encounters increasingly deeper/warmer waters. It could have reached its current MPI in this location. With no sign of an oncoming EWRC, it has time to make one more push at intensification, not to mention that winds could still increase as they catch up to the rapid drop in pressure earlier.

[tulum07]

Once school is cancelled they do not reduce. They need the 2nd day to inspect all schools. They will reduce Holiday break.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Latest dropsonde has 144kts at surface

[weeniepatrol]

D. 904 mb
E. 215 deg 17 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C10

supports 902mb.

[Travorum]

NOAA VDM:

URNT12 KWBC 082235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 08/22:05:49Z
B. 22.83 deg N 087.24 deg W
C. NA
D. 904 mb
E. 215 deg 17 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C10
H. NA
I. NA
J. 109 deg 138 kt
K. 019 deg 5 nm 22:04:34Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 293 deg 150 kt
O. 203 deg 7 nm 22:07:35Z
P. 16 C / 2443 m
Q. 27 C / 2451 m
R. 20 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1714A MILTON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 150 KT 203 / 7 NM 22:07:35Z

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

VDM still shows a tiny bit of deepening. Wonder if we will go sub-900 again

[tulum07]

Palm Beach County is sin panic mode now since the cone shifted South. Ouch!

[eastcoastFL]

Milton is maintaining Cat 5 status and looking at the latest shear map there is 25kts of shear around the northern half of the storm

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... &zoom&time

[galaxy401]

Seems to be moving more NE in those recent frames but it could be an illusion too.

[eastcoastFL]

Palm Beach County is sin panic mode now since the cone shifted South. Ouch!

What does that mean?

[SecondBreakfast]

I think the next 24 hours are going to the most intense tracking of a hurricane since Katrina. I remember the lead up to that event and this is feeling very similar. The margin of error to avoid a major catastrophe in Tampa is getting smaller and smaller.

I have to force myself to sleep tonight, because I know I won’t be sleeping tomorrow night when my brother and his kids are taking it on the nose in Orlando.

[loon]

Just crazy how dead on this is for track..



HAFS-A doing a bang up job here.

[PCswfl]

When counties cancel school, is it possible for them to reduce it or do they just say "oh well" and make it up anyway later?

In Charlotte County the schools have built in days to the schedule to accommodate this. Just like up north with school days

[Poonwalker]

As much as I hope this goes farther south my gut is telling me to watch the Hafs twins here. I won’t let my guard down. But I will certainly avoid an ulcer if those two shift south.

[ElectricStorm]

AF drop still supports 905mb. Holding steady

[weeniepatrol]

D. 906 mb
E. 170 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C7

[otowntiger]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

It’s good to hear the optimism but personally I think it’s way to early to celebrate if your in Tampa.