ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Every change in heading starts with a wobble but not every wobble is a change in heading. I see you wobble watchers...and I appreciate all of you

[Bunkertor]

Clear NE motion now. I still have this awful feeling that ICON will be right again and that it'll landfall in the bay. The next 24 hours are gonna be intense.

I thought, that most models mostly agree on the impact site, or ?

False! Some are North some are South. Either well in the margin of error

Yes, of course, there are slight differences, but that does not have a major consequences as to surge, winds etc ... ?

[Nimbus]

Every change in heading starts with a wobble but not every wobble is a change in heading. I see you wobble watchers...and I appreciate all of you

12Z GFS was pretty close to the 23N -87W track point but they are still changing their steering ridge profile run to run so I'm hoping the upper air data mission data gets into the model runs later tonight.

[johngaltfla]

Clear NE motion now. I still have this awful feeling that ICON will be right again and that it'll landfall in the bay. The next 24 hours are gonna be intense.

The ICON has been outstanding on GOM storms this year. It's going to be dicey.

[jasons2k]

Harbinger of things to come…these supercells off the SW coast have some vicious rotation in them.

[ElectricStorm]

NOAA 908 extrap

[eastcoastFL]

Every change in heading starts with a wobble but not every wobble is a change in heading. I see you wobble watchers...and I appreciate all of you

Hi everyone, my name is eastcoastFL and I'm a wobble watcher. I've been wobble watching for decades now, I just can't help it.

[Travorum]

NOAA SE-NW pass:

230730 2242N 08655W 7514 02294 9766 +161 +155 243102 104 /// /// 03
230800 2243N 08656W 7497 02276 9725 +163 +156 243111 115 /// /// 03
230830 2245N 08657W 7511 02212 9670 +163 +158 243124 129 /// /// 03
230900 2247N 08657W 7520 02133 9587 +175 +176 246132 135 /// /// 05
230930 2248N 08658W 7494 02076 9482 +193 +181 253142 147 /// /// 03
231000 2249N 08659W 7455 02014 9364 +195 +180 256153 156 /// /// 03
231030 2251N 08700W 7455 01888 9241 +190 +189 259137 153 /// /// 05
231100 2252N 08700W 7493 01746 9122 +221 +197 263085 123 /// /// 03
231130 2254N 08701W 7517 01693 9080 +246 +199 290037 061 /// /// 03
231200 2256N 08701W 7516 01702 9084 +247 +199 335020 028 /// /// 03
231230 2257N 08701W 7522 01717 9114 +237 +197 063030 041 /// /// 03
231300 2259N 08702W 7525 01797 9219 +203 +185 067077 089 /// /// 03
231330 2301N 08703W 7517 01958 9395 +165 +192 064116 123 /// /// 05
231400 2303N 08704W 7516 02089 9538 +164 +189 058113 123 /// /// 05
231430 2304N 08705W 7518 02168 9622 +167 +190 057099 107 /// /// 05

908.0mb extrap | 156kt FL SE | 123kt FL NW

significantly weaker winds in the NW than AF found in their first pass.

[got ants?]

Every model seems to keep moving this shear zone a little bit further north at landfall. Levi even mentioned it in today's video. If that trend continues, it wont be good for anyone

This is what I was saying yesterday when everyone was claiming a Cat 3 landfall. Shear can change in a day, why speak in absolutes about weakening when there is a more than non-zero chance this thing could theoretically not weaken much at all?

I believe there will be weakening. It is very hard to maintain this kind of strength. I'm not positive is goes down to low cat 3. I'm thinking low cat4, but regardless, even if it is a low 3, the windfield will be much larger, and the surge is a cumulative action. It is pushing a tremendous amount of water, even now, and that water will continue to pile up all the way onshore. The water will be the biggest problem, not the wind.

Watching our local news, it's frustrating that they keep flip-flopping on either cat 3 or 4, at landfall. They should just keep it at 4, and hope it drops to a 3. Having been threw many hurricanes, one could easily dismiss a 3, but not a 4. They are doing the public a disservice with thier -removed-.

[Mike33534]

Where is a good website with the current NHC track with a WV or visible satellite overlay?

[canebeard]

Tampa area folks are so trained by Charlie, Ian etc. , that one Advisory showing a south move caused a bunch of folks on social media to wave the all clear flag. I hope people stay tuned into the 11PM advisory and beyond.

"Crowd mentality"?

One counter balancing fact: the local TV weather folks almost always focus on the threat to their own viewing audience--so I bet they are not waving the all-clear flag on Tampa TV. And they certainly have an audience many multitudes of times greater than some online weather forums.

[eastcoastFL]

Harbinger of things to come…these supercells off the SW coast have some vicious rotation in them.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241008/5d9f1e80f5738c0b9dc37dd3c447b9bb.png
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241008/ebe9102f120fc813dc452f21e4f0ca80.png

It's going to be a long 36 hours or so of endless tornado warnings on our cell phones and radios.

[CronkPSU]

Where is a good website with the current NHC track with a WV or visible satellite overlay?

this site has it all...scroll down

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products ... m=AL142024

[aspen]

Milton is definitely slightly weakening based on this pass. It’s hard to tell why — maybe a tiny increase in shear or change to ventilation efficiency, maybe it’s running out of OHC prior to reaching the Loop Current, maybe something structural…or just the fact that it’s incredibly difficult to maintain such an intense storm. Milton has got to be closing in on among the longest non-consecutive sub-910mb durations in the entire basin. That’s hard to sustain, even in good conditions.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Every change in heading starts with a wobble but not every wobble is a change in heading. I see you wobble watchers...and I appreciate all of you

Hi everyone, my name is eastcoastFL and I'm a wobble watcher. I've been wobble watching for decades now, I just can't help it.

It's ok eastcoastFL. You are in a safe space

[Kingarabian]

Milton is definitely slightly weakening based on this pass. It’s hard to tell why — maybe a tiny increase in shear or change to ventilation efficiency, maybe it’s running out of OHC prior to reaching the Loop Current, maybe something structural…or just the fact that it’s incredibly difficult to maintain such an intense storm. Milton has got to be closing in on among the longest non-consecutive sub-910mb durations in the entire basin. That’s hard to sustain, even in good conditions.

Fluctuating in intensity due to inner dynamics. Which is completely normal in high end systems.

[sicktght311]

Milton is definitely slightly weakening based on this pass. It’s hard to tell why — maybe a tiny increase in shear or change to ventilation efficiency, maybe it’s running out of OHC prior to reaching the Loop Current, maybe something structural…or just the fact that it’s incredibly difficult to maintain such an intense storm. Milton has got to be closing in on among the longest non-consecutive sub-910mb durations in the entire basin. That’s hard to sustain, even in good conditions.

Fluctuating in intensity due to inner dynamics.

Yeah honestly on IR it looks just as healthy as it did an hour ago

[ElectricStorm]

The NOAA drops are taking forever to come in but the one from the last pass over an hour ago supported 903mb, about 20min before the 905 AF drop. So it probably peaked around then. Still no double wind max though, so I could see it deepening again in a couple hours while it's over the loop current, although it would be tough to get much stronger than it is now

[Hammy]

Looks like another ERC should start in the next few hours, double eyewall showing up on radar

[skillz305]

I'm in Vero. What are our winds looking like over here for Milton? Getting a bit anxious but knew was always a possibility. I've looked up wind forecasts but what do you think?