ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TomballEd]

Mike Bettes on TWC just threw out the “A-word”…

Annular

Properly annular TCs have a much larger eye than Milton ever has thus far. See the examples pictured here.

IIRC, annular hurricanes usually happen over waters just warm enough to support TCs, not over water near 30*C

[skillz305]

Historical Milton decides his own path...

[GCANE]

Looks like maybe 5 mesovorts just popped up in the eye

[Abdullah]

I marked with a red X where the NHC forecast said Milton would be at 2 AM.

To me it seems that it's been trending east.

[tpr1967]

I Don't understand these model trackers TVCN showing down south of Sarasota. All the big models GFS, UKMET, ICON, and EURO show landfall around Tampa Bay. Didn't the NHC make the same mistake with Helene?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

GN yall.

[Kazmit]

The spaghetti models can show what they show. Fact is, the ICON has been the best performer this year for these types of storms, and currently it’s showing a direct hit on Tampa Bay. So is the GFS, which has also been quite good. Tampa is not in the clear yet.

[Team Getterdun]

The incoming rain is following the nhc track

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

What is the link for the ~live link for that page?

[ConvergenceZone]

not sure it can complete another EWRC and not lose a lot especially in less ideal conditions...i was always hoping this would be the reason it weakened and not shear

I'm thinking the same thing. Between the EWRC and very strong vertical shear tomorrow, 105 to 115 mph landfall strength seems reasonable. I agree with the NHC though to keep it as high as 125 mph for now just to be safe.

[wx98]

Since a lot of people are talking about wobbles, Some of you might be aware of it but if you aren't, The Local news here WFLA has a 24/7 Live wobble tracker, and it has had some pretty crazy wobbles to the south and north which could definitely effect the track down the line but if you are interested in tracking the wobbles that's an interesting and informative way to watch.

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/

Bumping this post from this morning. WFLA has a neat real-time loop “wobble watcher” for those looking for an easy way to determine if it’s drifting right or left of track.

[dafif]

Is Tampa/St Pete a ghost town now? Trying to see what it’s like there

Pretty much. There’s a few businesses still open but the majority of downtown is dead besides a few residents walking around.

Tomorrow will be even quieter.

My son is currently sitting at a bar in downtown Tampa with 2 of his high school friends. Bar is crowded. He went there from Ocala to be with his mother who is across from Tampa General. High enough up for no storm surge and pretty well protected from winds.

[GCANE]

Kermit just reported 913mb. Pressure going up.
This and the mesovorts indicates a weakening phase maybe beginning.
Perhaps the increasing shear.
He just entered the Loop Current and will be over it for a good portion of the day tomorrow.
More factors are in play now.

[eastcoastFL]

The incoming rain is following the nhc track

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

What is the link for the ~live link for that page?

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Lance]

Since a lot of people are talking about wobbles, Some of you might be aware of it but if you aren't, The Local news here WFLA has a 24/7 Live wobble tracker, and it has had some pretty crazy wobbles to the south and north which could definitely effect the track down the line but if you are interested in tracking the wobbles that's an interesting and informative way to watch.

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/

Bumping this post for this morning. WFLA has a neat real-time loop “wobble watcher” for those looking for an easy way to determine if it’s drifting right or left of track.

Looks to be right on track at the moment then.

[ConvergenceZone]

Kermit just reported 913mb. Pressure going up.
This and the mesovorts indicates a weakening phase maybe beginning.
Perhaps the increasing shear.
He just entered the Loop Current and will be over it for a good portion of the day tomorrow.
More factors are in play now.

Great news! Thanks for the update GCANE

[BobHarlem]

Since a lot of people are talking about wobbles, Some of you might be aware of it but if you aren't, The Local news here WFLA has a 24/7 Live wobble tracker, and it has had some pretty crazy wobbles to the south and north which could definitely effect the track down the line but if you are interested in tracking the wobbles that's an interesting and informative way to watch.

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/

Bumping this post for this morning. WFLA has a neat real-time loop “wobble watcher” for those looking for an easy way to determine if it’s drifting right or left of track.

Looks to be right on track at the moment then.

Yes it's begnning to line back up with the 2AM forecast position, the forecast points are a line from 5pm to 2am, but the storm doesn't always move in a straight line, thus the curve here. The location is still west of the HAFS model position for the current time. In short be careful about getting caught up too much in the wobbling.

[drewschmaltz]

Last night we witnessed a EWRC with structural recovery by the morning and return to strength by mid afternoon. It appears that there may be time for this to complete. It really seems like so much will depend on this completion vs shear. The loop current won't hurt.

[pmang6]

Dvorak weakening flag is on.

[mpic]

The Mayor of Tampa regarding Evacuations

When asked about what she would say to residents who’ve ridden out past hurricanes and are hesitant about evacuating for Milton, Castor gave a grave warning.

“Helene was a wake-up call. This is literally catastrophic, and I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” Castor warned.

While it's definitely a possibility, and I do believe everyone should heed mandatory evacuations, I do not agree with her approach.

Not there, but the mentality of the people is something I hear all of the time in my area. Inhave to believe that she knows "her people" and knows what it might take. My mayor is probably the same mentality and if she said this in my area, a lot of people might open their eyes and say "whoa! This must be serious".

[CronkPSU]

Since a lot of people are talking about wobbles, Some of you might be aware of it but if you aren't, The Local news here WFLA has a 24/7 Live wobble tracker, and it has had some pretty crazy wobbles to the south and north which could definitely effect the track down the line but if you are interested in tracking the wobbles that's an interesting and informative way to watch.

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/

Bumping this post from this morning. WFLA has a neat real-time loop “wobble watcher” for those looking for an easy way to determine if it’s drifting right or left of track.

looks dead on to me right now