ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

Potential paths are close to my house down here on the south side of Sarasota.

Tomorrow night will not be dull.

Wait, so are you saying there's a 63% chance Tampa doesn't even get Hurricane strength winds now? Wow.

I wouldn't bet against the COAMPS or ICON yet. In 12-18 hours we'll have the best picture.

[USTropics]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

Potential paths are close to my house down here on the south side of Sarasota.

Tomorrow night will not be dull.

Wait, so are you saying there's a 63% chance Tampa doesn't even get Hurricane strength winds now? Wow.

I kind of wish they would discontinue that product or explain it better. First, that's a probabilistic graphic. Second, it is for sustained winds. Gusts from Milton will be significant (as it was with Helene), especially in the northwest quadrant as we get these trough interactions tomorrow.

[AtlanticWind]

another east wobble now

[dafif]

Can someone help me. I think on this site during Helene someone posted a link to a web page that showed the wind/projected wind for your location.

Does anyone remember or know that link? Thanks.

The one I use is at good ol' Weather.gov.

Once there, enter your zip code in the box to the upper left corner. Press GO. Once there, scroll 2/3's down and click on "Tabular Forecast." Pick the 48 hour period you're looking for. There you will find surface wind and gusts forecast. I have used this for years. It's usually pretty close although yesterday it showed 70--92--70 gusts over 3 hours. I think the 92 was an anomaly but it seems correct to me now.

Thanks! I am setting it up. Over the last hour I also found this which looks good

https://zoom.earth/storms/milton-2024/#map=wind-gusts/model=icon/overlays=wind:off

[Blown Away]

Looks ENE to me…

[johngaltfla]

Potential paths are close to my house down here on the south side of Sarasota.

Tomorrow night will not be dull.

Wait, so are you saying there's a 63% chance Tampa doesn't even get Hurricane strength winds now? Wow.

I kind of wish they would discontinue that product or explain it better. First, that's a probabilistic graphic. Second, it is for sustained winds. Gusts from Milton will be significant (as it was with Helene), especially in the northwest quadrant as we get these trough interactions tomorrow.

Thank you. It seems to be more of a dartboard than predictive model. Just my opinion.

[psyclone]

There's no way to fill the atmospheric black hole that is Milton without someone paying rent...be it a hurricane or an extratropical transitioning system. Broad swaths of the peninsula are gonna get hammered. I expect the worst storm I have observed in my decades here...probably by a wide margin.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like the Loop Current is (unfortunately) doing his work with Milton now. The eye is back to WMG and the convection is somewhat more uniform and circular. This frame supports T7.5 again.

[Travorum]

Microwave progression from 2130z to 00z:

[Bocadude85]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Jn8nPBYy/goes16-ir-14-L-202410090147.gif [/url]

Looks ENE to me…

He is definitely taking a good wobble to the east, already heading east of the new track. Let’s see if he wobbles back on track.

[ElectricStorm]

Next AF plane should be taking off less than an hour from now so we won't have to wait too long for the next pass

[DucaCane]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/xecDWYh.gif

What is the blob that's been in front of Milton this whole time, and what effect does it have on the storm besides dropping plenty of rain prior to landfall?

I was wondering the same thing. Looks like another area of low pressure just ahead. It’s been there for a while now.

[Bolebuns]

That convection to the NE looks insane.

[Travorum]

Some of the most impressive TDR data I've seen:

[pcolaman]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/xecDWYh.gif

What is the blob that's been in front of Milton this whole time, and what effect does it have on the storm besides dropping plenty of rain prior to landfall?

Looks like the blog is shielding Milton, also on micro. Imagine it looks to be feeding of of Milton. Incredible!
I was wondering the same thing. Looks like another area of low pressure just ahead. It’s been there for a while now.

[Poonwalker]

That convection to the NE looks insane.

Is that part of his twin brother or something??

[fci]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

As the storm gets closer the %’s will rise accordingly

[utweather]

CBS Fort Myers showed a great map to help residents stay safe. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... n#contents

Storm surge inundation. He zoomed in to show neighborhoods where residents can go especially if they dont want to drive across the state. There is naturally high ground for some safety.

[Fancy1002]

I think he’s looking better.

[CrazyC83]

In a way, it's behaving like Camille or Allen did.

Camille went from 905 mb to 919 mb to 900 mb (at landfall), all within about 36 hours.

Allen went wild, going from 911 mb to 956 mb to 899 mb to (quickly rise to) 960 mb and a final peak of 909 mb before rising to about 950 mb at landfall. Those were wild eyewall cycles in that one.