ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Seriously tilted after the EWRC, strongest extraps are near the eyewall

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 958.0 mb (28.29 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 15° at 79 kts (From the NNE at 90.9 mph)

[underthwx]

Any chance this stalls or loops and heads east?

I just can't believe we are seeing a strong November hurricane in its current location heading west and apparently strengthening....at this point nothing would surprise me.

The 3 am NHC forecast track depicts Rafael performing an anti-cyclonic loop. Great question! Did you see this on a model?

[underthwx]

Man, it's just so strange to have a borderline major in the gulf and there is no sense of danger from anywhere on the gulf coast.

I feel you on that. How many days has Rafael been a cyclone? Now the NHC has Rafael doing a loop in the central Gulf. He is gonna be around awhile longer.

[xironman]

Any chance this stalls or loops and heads east?

I just can't believe we are seeing a strong November hurricane in its current location heading west and apparently strengthening....at this point nothing would surprise me.

The 3 am NHC forecast track depicts Rafael performing an anti-cyclonic loop. Great question! Did you see this on a model?

The 06 ICON does this along the gulf coast but Rafael is a shell of its former self.

[underthwx]

Man, it's just so strange to have a borderline major in the gulf and there is no sense of danger from anywhere on the gulf coast.

Exactly what I was thinking. Generally we think once a cane is the gulf someone is getting creamed. It's quite unusual for a cane to dissipate in the gulf without hitting someone. Free swell with no destruction is awesome...and very rare.

Surfs up brah

[underthwx]

I wonder are there more track adjustments in store for the cyclone ? Seeing a major hurricane in the gulf always make me feel uneasy. Are there any other cyclones that resemble Rafaels behavior, concerning track and intensity? Or is Rafael an unprecedented cyclone, being its November? Thankfully; weakening and eventually dissipating are Rafaels future.

[wxman57]

Recon finding it's barely a Cat 2 hurricane now. We should see a rapid weakening by tonight and Saturday as shear increases. Center may be exposed to the west of the convection tomorrow evening. No hurricane then. Several models were showing the loop, but as a TD or remnant low. I don't think it'll still be a hurricane by noon tomorrow, and likely not a TS by Sunday afternoon.

[underthwx]

This is just one of a few news headlines concerning Rafael, that I found a tiny bit amusing. "Where the Heck is Hurricane Rafael Headed?" We all know where the cyclone has already been, and wreaked havoc on the Caymans, Cuba, and the Keys of Florida, and from what I read on the NWS Brownsville forecast discussion, Rafaels days are numbered, with the cyclone forecast to become a remnant low by Tuesday or Wednesday next week. But looking at Rafael this morning on satellite, doesn't seem possible for such a powerful cyclone to just go poof out there in the gulf, but indeed it will, as Wxman57 points out above.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[fllawyer]

Did I miss why NHC isn’t doing intermediate advisories?

[underthwx]

Did I miss why NHC isn’t doing intermediate advisories?

I think because it is not am imminent threat to land atm? They had hourly bulletins while the cyclone was bearing down on the Caymans, Jamaica I think?, and Cuba and the Keys. I believe the NHC made a note of their advisories would no longer be as frequent as before, after Rafael entered the southeast gulf.

[WaveBreaking]

Still some intense lightning even though it’s weaker than last night

[fllawyer]

Did I miss why NHC isn’t doing intermediate advisories?

I think because it is not am imminent threat to land atm? They had hourly bulletins while the cyclone was bearing down on the Caymans, Jamaica I think?, and Cuba and the Keys. I believe the NHC made a note of their advisories would no longer be as frequent as before, after Rafael entered the southeast gulf.

Thanks. I must have missed that note. I don’t think I’ve ever seen them not do intermediate advisories on a storm.

[underthwx]

Did I miss why NHC isn’t doing intermediate advisories?

I think because it is not am imminent threat to land atm? They had hourly bulletins while the cyclone was bearing down on the Caymans, Jamaica I think?, and Cuba and the Keys. I believe the NHC made a note of their advisories would no longer be as frequent as before, after Rafael entered the southeast gulf.

Thanks. I must have missed that note. I don’t think I’ve ever seen them not do intermediate advisories on a storm.

You are most welcome! I dont remember the advisory number that the NHC stated that they would transition back to their normal update times, but prior to that particular advisory, I too asked the same question regarding the intervals that their advisories would take place. Looking ar Rafael on satellite, if this was August or September, I'm sure this would be a much different scenario with Rafael possibly taking aim at the CONUS. Thankfully, this has not been the case with Rafael.

[Buck]

Did I miss why NHC isn’t doing intermediate advisories?

I think because it is not am imminent threat to land atm? They had hourly bulletins while the cyclone was bearing down on the Caymans, Jamaica I think?, and Cuba and the Keys. I believe the NHC made a note of their advisories would no longer be as frequent as before, after Rafael entered the southeast gulf.

Thanks. I must have missed that note. I don’t think I’ve ever seen them not do intermediate advisories on a storm.

They only do immediate advisories when there are watches or warnings in effect.

[underthwx]

I think because it is not am imminent threat to land atm? They had hourly bulletins while the cyclone was bearing down on the Caymans, Jamaica I think?, and Cuba and the Keys. I believe the NHC made a note of their advisories would no longer be as frequent as before, after Rafael entered the southeast gulf.

They only do immediate advisories when there are watches or warnings in effect.
Thanks. I must have missed that note. I don’t think I’ve ever seen them not do intermediate advisories on a storm.

Thankyou Buck for clarifying that, much appreciated!

[wxman57]

Did I miss why NHC isn’t doing intermediate advisories?

They only issue intermediate advisories when there are active watches or warnings for land areas.

[Sanibel]

The more right the better the chance of a weird track towards CONUS imo...

[wxman57]

Dry air has wrapped around form the SW to SE quadrants now. Rafael is rapidly weakening. If it tracks north of 26N, then it's done for. Too much shear up there. It would be a remnant low long before it could reach the Gulf coast. I'm not sure it will still be a hurricane this evening.

[wxman57]

Convection is dissipating SW-SE of the center now. Dry air and shear are impacting Rafael. It would be nice to see some recon.