ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

I started tracking at 26.701, -95.357 roughly 5-6 hours ago now. It is currently 55 miles almost due north of that point now, so yes it would seem the westward movement has stopped for now. Currently lined up for the Freeport area.

[Steve]

Yeah I was watching some dude on YouTube for a while who was running radar. Seemed like the center kind of moved up but there’s still dry air flowing in parts of the w and sw. So it’s kind of hard to say but it looked like it closed off some of the eye to the NNE a hair. Another chaser was talking to his crew and thought Freeport.

[rw1984]

Will be interesting to see if that wobble to the NNE of last point is just that or start of a trend. Freeport is essentially due South of downtown Houston.

[wx98]

It’s approx 80 miles south of the coast at Freeport currently. Should be inland around 10-11z or so.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like a much smaller eye is about to close off towards the top of the large eye on radar.

[Steve]

Will be interesting to see if that wobble to the NNE of last point is just that or start of a trend. Freeport is essentially due South of downtown Houston.

Seemed like that was the farthest east it was going to come up. But it’s been east and north of points for much of the last few days (forecasts and models). So I guess it wouldn’t be a complete surprise.

[mpic]

It’s approx 80 miles south of the coast at Freeport currently. Should be inland around 10-11z or so.

It must be ramping up on speed? Saying here about 7-8 am. EDIT: Nevermind. My brain read 10 or 11 pm sorry.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think this is going to be one of those
"lucky it didn't have more time over water" scenarios
Recon did measure a 69kt wind at 925mb (didn't get the surface)

[skyline385]

"The last several center fixes from recon tonight are showing that #Beryl is actually moving north or even slightly east of north.

We are likely seeing some center “tugging” to the east due to #Beryl’s asymmetrical & heavily east-weighted inner core structure, that’s being reinforced by some dry air to its west and southwest.

Main implication of this may lead to slightly heavier rainfall potential & slightly gustier winds in/around Houston later tonight."

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1810133883561611383



 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1810134910725935146

[Xyls]

Big, big convection now happening around the eye. Now that is moving in a more north east direction that will likely give it more time over water...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Those rotating hot towers should make quick work of closing this off though

[NDG]

Galveston and Houston may see the worst of Beryl if it the current heading continues.

[wx98]

Looks like a much smaller eye is about to close off towards the top of the large eye on radar.

I’m noticing that as well

[jabman98]

Galveston and Houston may see the worst of Beryl if it the current heading continues.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3286/7gGg2D.gif

I am really hating this. Beryl can feel free to go east of Houston!

[Nederlander]

Big, big convection now happening around the eye. Now that is moving in a more north east direction that will likely give it more time over water...

She is starting to go over some of the hottest water in the basin as well (~88 degF). The jet fuel is there, but hopefully she runs out of time.

[sphelps8681]

Galveston and Houston may see the worst of Beryl if it the current heading continues.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3286/7gGg2D.gif

I am like 2 hours from Galveston in East Tx. I guess the means more rain and wind for me or does it?

[capNstorms]

intense convection on the N and S towers firing on opposite sides of the eye structure gaining altitude...


More convective gravity waves on the east, north, and south side of this system wrapping around in those outer bands are going to barrel into to SETX and pull moisture from the Gulf.
For a not so developed system they say, its going to do a lot of damage, along with the storm surge... As far as I'm concerned the east side of this system will be nasty. Last image before sun down



It's actually bigger than
Humberto 2007


and Allison 2001

[floridasun]

this system hard time fighting dry air to west center cannot close up to be hurr i think must maybe is high end ts or weak hurr cat 1

[HurricaneBrain]

Those two towers are beginning to wrap into each other.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Beryl has failed to develop the inner core necessary for RI like we've seen with other storms approaching the coast; good news for the coast of Texas.

Earlier today I believed Beryl might be able to reach as high as 95 knots if the inner core developed like the HWRF showed (which was contigent on dry air not being a factor). However, dry air has obviously continued to intrude into Beryl and preventing an eyewall from wrapping around. I believe now it's more likely it'll be closer to 70-75 knots.