ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

153 kt FL wind and 910.1 mb extrapolated with 22 kt winds -> 908 mb. Dropsonde might be a bit higher than that based on the bias so far so I expect 910mb/140kt at 5am.

[Bocadude85]

look at the 2am update

The NHC does not release new tracks on intermediate advisories. All they do is update the position.

Speaking of which Milton is still running east of the 11pm track

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/

The NHC adjusts the cone at each advisory.
Which they did at the 1am intermediate advisory.
This adjustment in the graphic was a nudge north.

This is incorrect. The NHC releases updated tracks 4 times a day. 5am,11am,5pm,and 11pm eastern time. The only thing you see on the cone during intermediate advisories is the updated position which can make it look like the cone has changed when in fact it has not.

[jhpigott]

Milton is about 25 miles east of forecast track.

No sign shear has any effect.

Eye is 8 nm wide.

Latest eyedrop indicates no forthcoming EWRC.

Well into the Loop Current now.

CAPE in SE section of GoM is slowly increasing.

Ionospheric heating has turned back up. Currently over the Mid East

Interested to see what the NHC does with the track. This radar loop and track overlay speak for themselves. Comfortably east of the forecast track like GCANE mentioned and early to the next forecast point

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[GCANE]

Looks like the radius of max winds has increased over a 24-hr period.

[caneman]

Unless it starts to track back Northerly this could go as far south as Venice.

[Blown Away]

INIT 09/0300Z 23.4N 86.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W 135 KT 155 MPH

Milton looks it’s going to be well E of the predicted 12z position… Maybe starting to get squeezed on W side, hopefully downtrend from here with intensity, hopefully!

[kevin]

Current location on IR floater is 24.36N, 85.37W (08:40z). The location at 05:29z was 23.75N, -85.95W according to ARCHER. This indicates an average forward speed of 11 mph and a bearing of 41 degrees east of north aka NE (ever so slightly NNE) over the last 3 hours.

[GCANE]

Starting to see a PVS signature in the N GoM from the trof.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Could be good or bad.'
Could impart shear and weaken Milton and / or could initiate extratropical transition and bring tornadoes and heavier rain, more than expected, for mid FL.
Last couple days, GFS has been showing the trof going negative tilt as it interacts with Milton.

[caneman]

Current location on IR floater is 24.36N, 85.37W (08:40z). The location at 05:29z was 23.75N, -85.95W according to ARCHER. This indicates an average forward speed of 11 mph and a bearing of 41 degrees east of north aka NE (ever so slightly NNE) over the last 3 hours.

That might nudge it a little further North at landfall. We'll see

[GCANE]

Awesome

Recon just reported an inner and outer eyewall

Inner Eye Diameter: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)

[kevin]

5am discussion excerpts. Initial intensity is set at 907mb/140kt.

The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.

INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER

[caneman]

Between Anna Maria Island and Bradenton tracking along the eastern edge of Tampa Bay? Edit. Closer to Longboat key

[chris_fit]

Was not expecting them to nudge the track north with what appears to be clearly a more eastward component.

[robbielyn]

Still tracking east of the forecast, but models (which seem to have initialized correctly) either stay put at TB or move north... I don't know what to do with this information. The next 24 hours are gonna be the nailbiter of the century in terms of hurricane tracking.

https://i.imgur.com/jotkzt2.png

This is the time to watch what the storm is actually doing vs models. they hv a mind of their own. nhc track probably right since storm is r of track

[Blown Away]

As of 5:01 am, Milton already E of the 5:00 am track….

[caneman]

Was not expecting them to nudge the track north with what appears to be clearly a more eastward component.

appears to now be moving closer to track

[xironman]

Awesome

Recon just reported an inner and outer eyewall

Inner Eye Diameter: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)

The question is how long it takes to complete, though with increasing shear it may just degrade in general

[GCANE]

Landfall now estimated 2AM Thursday at the southern end of Tampa Bay

[pmang6]

Appears to have a more ne to nne motion in the last few IR frames. Eye also looks to be going absolutely microscopic, curious to see the next recon pass. Hopefully indicative of an upcoming ewrc.

Edit: down to 909 according to levi's recon data. next pass soon. someone earlier mentioned hurricane allen having several rapid ramp up and down periods associated with repeated ewrc shenanigans. Seems to be a similar thing unfolding here.

[Blown Away]

Landfall now estimated 2AM Thursday at the southern end of Tampa Bay

Going to be a long day of micromanaging every single frame of satellite and radar imagery…